How to reverse your bias in market direction?
Not reverse - eliminate
Not quite - AD shared what..., OP is asking how
Y'all help him / her out - and share some idea as to how
RN
flip the charts upside down?
How to reverse your bias in market direction?
- Thread starter heavenskrow
- Start date
flip the charts upside down?
Hahaha I wish there was actually an option in TOS for that.
I mean I'm never married to a position since I am clear headed enough to be able to spot that sellers can't push it below a certain area, and that there are buyers coming in.
The hard part is "eliminating" my bias to the downside, and not only cover my short when I see it, but to fully reverse my position. I tend to coverat the bottom but just watch the market get more bids...few hours later, the market climbs to the open like today lol.
There is no positive-expectation counter(-trend) trading system; they are myths. And what are "range type signals"?
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Curious...do you have the same problem when you have a Bullish bias ?
Also, did your trade method give you a trade signal to the Long side when the markets was moving higher and then you just ignored it because your bias was still bearish ?
Then I suppose I should consider myself very special.
Cool. What type of strategy do you use? Indicators or PA or ????
How does the performance of your countertrend system compare to the performance of your trend system?
And what are "range type signals"? TIA.
Hmmm well if I'm bullish I usually sell into strength at resistance, and just watch what the market does from there. I don't know if there will be more buyers to push or sellers also coming in so I tend to let the market do what it does....but I would say similar problem since I don't reverse immediately as well.
Well my trade method is mainly price action. Like I said earlier in the thread, I saw all markets coming into support and volatility overextended. Then I saw we made a higher low and a signal that I could at least scalp a little on the long side. Only got one tick profit on long because I was scared the market could drop harder since we were below key support levels.
If my bias was completely neutral, I think I could have been gotten in long near lod and traded better.... Still trying to reach that level however
If you want to change your bias, change your time frame.
What seems bearish on a LT basis can be bullish on a ST basis and vice-versa.
But reversing is not a good idea. Because you anticipate.
Let the market tell you if he wants to reverse.
CM
Basically you're saying in the initial downtrend that correlated with your bearish bias...you had several Short signals. In contrast, in the entire uptrend, you only had one Long signal and it only generated one tick profit (your bias was still bearish) and after that Long position you did not get any more Long signals nor Short signals.
First, something doesn't make sense unless you did get more trade signals in that uptrend after your first Long signal after the higher low but you stayed on the sidelines (no trades) because you're trade signals was in conflict with your bearish bias.
Secondly, you need to know if you're a trend trader or counter-trend trader or range trader or whatever. Then you need to make sure you're using a trade method suitable for whatever type of trader you are. Most traders will attempt to use one strategy for all types of price action as if one size fits all as if someone got some socks from the store that say's anyone can fit the sock if your feet is size 6 - 12
Very few of these one size fit all types of trader will make it because those few know what type of trader they are and are able to recognize the market and they then know when to be trading and when not to be trading. Like I said, only a low percentage of traders can successfully navigate all types of markets conditions via one strategy.
Then you have as suggested by someone else in this thread or maybe it was your other thread that you should have different strategies for different types of markets.
Note: There's a new thread here at ET (may be a journal thread) where someone is using different types of trade methods for different types of markets. May be something interesting to pay attention to if you're not the one size fits all type of trader.
For example, you mention that higher low after a downtrend and that you got a Long signal...that's a trend reversal trader talking. In contrast, your description of the downtrend is a trend trader talking especially your bias conviction. Its tough for most traders to switch back n forth from trend trader, counter-trend trader (trend reversal) and range trader.
If this is a rare problem (like yesterdays price action) for you, don't worry about. You missed that particular upside trend. Yet, if this is a common problem and you're trend trader, you wouldn't be trading the first time that higher low showed up and instead should have been Long signals further up in the price action when a trend was confirmed or today if there's further up movement as continuation.
Anyways, not sure if you're a one size fits all type of a trader and your bias is messing your head up or you're someone using different types of methods for different types of markets...bias traders with the latter will consistently have missed trade opportunities or losses. In that scenario...get rid of your bias because its not suitable for someone using different types of trade strategies for different types of market conditions.
In contrast, keep your bias type of trading approach if you're consistently profitable and just chalk up yesterday's price action as one of those rare types of price action that you miss. No biggie, not possible to be a perfect trader. Assuming you made a bundle in that initial big downtrend via your strong bearish bias...be happy with that.
Good Luck
P.S. If you had been trying to Short that big movement back upwards with that strong bearish bias of yours. You have a market context problem and you got married to your bias. Yet, its not a problem if its not a consistent problem.
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