Quote from talontrading:
moderating on this board is just inconsistent sisboom... i've been on the wrong side of that several times with magna in other threads... just have to accept it.
anway, i've been thinking about this thread and my ability to carry it forward... not really sure what the next step is as i've had some other projects pop up that are sucking away a lot of time. let me share what might appropriately be some closing thoughts, but dont take this as the end to this thread...
several topics so in no particular order:
i actually did look at jack's stuff, but really got bogged down trying to understand the language. there are many technical issues that differ from my experience, but i don't feel i can really pass any kind of judgment. i will say this: i have a friend who is an older gentleman who has made a lot of money trading grains for many decades. he was on the floor, then in the 80's moved to trading from an office doing charts by hand and then later moved (with a whole lot of bitching about it) into the computer age. this guy has made a ton of money (9 figures) trading grains and tried to teach people several times. all attempts were dramatic failures because he was not able to translate his intuition and understanding of markets into a format that made sense to any other human being. when i look at what he wrote for his students i would think it was total crap and that he was more full of crap, but i know he's not. actually... it reminds me a lot of jack's ramblings. so, my final answer on that topic is i just dont know. he could be legit or not and i'm out of mental capital and time to spend on it.
secondly, i think this thread has accomplished what it set out to do. you have 3 trading ideas that actually work in this thread, one is more conceptual but still tradable, one is workable as is, and one is very close. more importantly, i think we outlined some of the thought process that goes into creating an idea and building it into a system. we also looked at some of the more quantitative approaches to evaluating trading ideas (and ironically enough i think i put some useful stuff in the now defunct bowo thread.) i feel like this thread was an idea that grew into what it was meant to be... maybe there's a new direction to go but i think we should stamp this one "mission accomplished".
thirdly, i have been very impressed with the caliber of people on this board. it is very different than my experiences online several years ago. yes there are the tools and douchebags, but there are a lot of sincere people here too. thank you all for your work and kind pm's. i did not answer all the pm's, but i also warned i wouldn't do that at the beginning.
several of you wanted to send me gifts to thank me for this thread. i was very surprised and touched by those offers, and i hope you instead made the small donations to charities i suggested. if you didnt, please do that... it is kind of universal principle that generosity and the act of giving returns more than it costs you. it's not by chance that that concept is a part of every religion in the world you know?
also i received several sincere inquiries about jobs and positions and mentorship. i replied to some but not to all, and i didn't mean to be rude by not replying. the reality is i hire only rarely... a small handful of people who hang out for several years and then move on to other things. it is extremely unlikely i would hire anyone in the next year and a half, and i also have a list of contacts and people i would be interested in already. so... short answer is sorry it's not gonna happen. however, i'm not nearly the only (or best) game in town. if you're serious about trading your chances of success doing this on your own at home are very very very small. you need to get yourself into an environment where you can work with other people who are better than you, who will challenge you and who will help you grow. there are many possibilities, but most of these require moving to chicago or new york. i would encourage you to check out some of the prop firms as a good place to really learn to trade. no, your chances of success there are also not great, but they are several orders of magnitude greater than they are on your own. there are several firms that offer good training programs.... focus on those. (no i won't mention specific firms... do your own research.)
don't be discouraged by the people who have failed and the little people on this board.... too many examples to mention. most of them don't believe trading is possible because they couldn't do it... they basically believe nothing works. however, there are so many very simple ideas that clearly do work... what is missing is the skill of trading. that's a legitimate mental skill that just takes time and experience to develop. for instance, i could tell you a very easy daytrade play that i do every day that makes me money every day... that i have taught probably 30 people to do who also make money doing it... that has worked for years... etc etc... and you probably would lose money doing it. (ok hang on... i know what you're gonna ask so yes i will...) the point is that great setups, stats, whatever will lose you money until you develop the skills. mentorship, actual trading experience and sadly losing some $$ are part of that.
so... i think that's a good place to cap this thread off. i'm open to other ideas and suggestions... not throwing in the towel here at all, but maybe oraclewizard wants to close this thread? if people have ideas for new directions, pm me (or put them here if the thread isn't closed) and i'll see if any of them excite me.
**as for the daytrade idea... get a level 2 and pull up an active stock on the open (lots of trading / volume / news). wait for the level 2 to repeat at a specific price a lot (you need to watch for several weeks to figure out what that means)... maybe even better if there's a lot of size showing on the bid at that level... and when the selling pressure pushes through that buyer, get short. quickly. you need to be the first one to hit the first bid under that buyer. if it doesn't go down right away get out immediately. if does go down, ride it until it turns back up. simple right? yes and no. (i only put this idea here because i hate it when people mention an idea like i did in the previous paragraph like it's some great secret. not recommending people do this trade! ... but now there are 4 valid trading ideas in this thread )
