You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
How to research and verify trading ideas
- Thread starter talontrading
- Start date
- Status
- Not open for further replies.
Quote from xburbx:
hopefully a mod will delete his posts in this thread.
Just use the ignore feature. Its distracting more than anything else.
FWIW, several years ago I tried to understand some of jack's posts by reading carefully and for content. I'd like to think of myself as a somewhat bright guy, but, I couldn't make sense of any of it, nor could I find any tangible/practical content.
As talon pointed out, having ideas and knowledge is one thing, but the ability to simply and clearly explain your ideas is another thing alltogether. In all professions, the ability to clearly communicate and explain yourself is paramount. I find it especially annoying that jack makes trading, a fairly simple process, so annoyingly confusing. He's either trying to confuse people, or he's never had to learn how to communicate. I suspect its the latter.
Mike
I think it would be helpful if we focus on small details right here at the beginning of our discussion. Let's leave bigger picture considerations, such as why your approach is better than the Conventional Wisdom for a bit down the road if we could.
I'm still confused and am really going to keep hammering you for clarity. I understand the matrix has rows and colums. I do not understand what "market pace" is, nor what "bar volatility" is? Can you explain precisely how you calculate those two measures? Exact examples would be helpful.
It would also be helpful if you could share a sample matrix. If you do not want to share current information I certainly understand that. Perhaps you could post an old matrix from several months or years ago.
I believe I can make pretty good guesses at what these measures are and at how to construct the matrix, but I should not have to guess.
Please keep it simple and short and be patient with us while we try to strive for clarity here. Thank you.
I'm still confused and am really going to keep hammering you for clarity. I understand the matrix has rows and colums. I do not understand what "market pace" is, nor what "bar volatility" is? Can you explain precisely how you calculate those two measures? Exact examples would be helpful.
It would also be helpful if you could share a sample matrix. If you do not want to share current information I certainly understand that. Perhaps you could post an old matrix from several months or years ago.
I believe I can make pretty good guesses at what these measures are and at how to construct the matrix, but I should not have to guess.
Please keep it simple and short and be patient with us while we try to strive for clarity here. Thank you.
Quote from jack hershey:
A matrix has rows and columns. I crossed market pace with bar volatility. This generated a grid of cells filled with bar frequencies, I used 1600 bars. I keep it current by adding new bars and deleting old bars.
If a person examines the shapes of the contents of the rows or columns, he finds a simple shape is occurring. The name of this distribution plays a role in natrual occurances, By relating to the implicatiions of this type of natural occurance this makes the markets seem ammenable to using other natrural occurances as models for the market's nature. Thus the market is telling us rather than us assigning arbitrary contitions.
It is nice to find a natural distribution when woking up market data.
I'm sitting in an airport watching the weather roll into NYC and flights get delayed more and more... happy new year.
I was hoping to use this time today to look at some of the posts on volatility that have been done, but let's deal with Jack's material first. I don't want to see this thread massively derailed, but please be patient for a few days if that's what it takes to get this straightened out. If we can't get some clarity on Jack's stuff (why do I find myself typing that word 'clarify' over and over lately lol??) we'll move on, but let's give him a chance.
I was hoping to use this time today to look at some of the posts on volatility that have been done, but let's deal with Jack's material first. I don't want to see this thread massively derailed, but please be patient for a few days if that's what it takes to get this straightened out. If we can't get some clarity on Jack's stuff (why do I find myself typing that word 'clarify' over and over lately lol??) we'll move on, but let's give him a chance.
Quote from talontrading:
I do not understand what "market pace" is, nor what "bar volatility" is? Can you explain precisely how you calculate those two measures? Exact examples would be helpful.
Please keep it simple and short and be patient with us while we try to strive for clarity here. Thank you.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=83604&perpage=40&pagenumber=226
Read through Vorzo's post and open his spreadsheet. They may help.
That's the whole point. Clarity would show there's no substance so it must be avoided at all costs. Jack's been playing "the wise old man who speaks in riddles" on the internet for over a decade.
In 1999 (before ET on Usenet), some guys from Harvard came up empty handed after trying to decipher Jack's "teachings" for more than a year. Look at posts # 1 and 2 here:http://groups.google.com/group/misc..._frm/thread/e21428336d0962ed/4088dacd0b5143e7
Now look at how they felt over a year later. Tell me this doesn't sound familiar:
...I don't understand why it's not possible to verify such a successful futures trading system if it is based on objective rules. My own attempts to automate the system have been frustrated at every turn by an enormous problem that is apparently only resolvable by gut instinct... I have spent a great deal of time respectfully reading and thinking about what you have written, but mostly what I feel now is frustration.
http://groups.google.com/group/misc..._frm/thread/ccc785d53a418f8a/ad6210f80809669d
For anyone thinking, "well maybe he can trade but he just can't explain his ideas" FORGET IT! In a trading contest where Jack couldn't fake it, he came in dead last with -24%. I think that taught him a lesson and since then he's evaded demos and proof like the plague. For example, Jack's never demonstrated his claim that he routinely makes 3X daily range in ES and has run away from several trading challenges.
Jack also promised his former IBD group to turn $10,000 into $1 Million in 100 days and document it on ET... but that never happened either.
http://www.mediafire.com/?1gi2qygm3yh
I could go on but believe I've made my point.
In 1999 (before ET on Usenet), some guys from Harvard came up empty handed after trying to decipher Jack's "teachings" for more than a year. Look at posts # 1 and 2 here:http://groups.google.com/group/misc..._frm/thread/e21428336d0962ed/4088dacd0b5143e7
Now look at how they felt over a year later. Tell me this doesn't sound familiar:
...I don't understand why it's not possible to verify such a successful futures trading system if it is based on objective rules. My own attempts to automate the system have been frustrated at every turn by an enormous problem that is apparently only resolvable by gut instinct... I have spent a great deal of time respectfully reading and thinking about what you have written, but mostly what I feel now is frustration.
http://groups.google.com/group/misc..._frm/thread/ccc785d53a418f8a/ad6210f80809669d
For anyone thinking, "well maybe he can trade but he just can't explain his ideas" FORGET IT! In a trading contest where Jack couldn't fake it, he came in dead last with -24%. I think that taught him a lesson and since then he's evaded demos and proof like the plague. For example, Jack's never demonstrated his claim that he routinely makes 3X daily range in ES and has run away from several trading challenges.
Jack also promised his former IBD group to turn $10,000 into $1 Million in 100 days and document it on ET... but that never happened either.
http://www.mediafire.com/?1gi2qygm3yh
I could go on but believe I've made my point.
Quote from talontrading:
Poor use of language obfuscates and confuses.
Yes, thank you. I'll look over vorzo's posts because they seem to be fairly lucid.
I guess stuff like this irritates me sometimes because my experience has been that trading is really a lot more simple than people think... so I try to avoid complications as much as possible.
I guess stuff like this irritates me sometimes because my experience has been that trading is really a lot more simple than people think... so I try to avoid complications as much as possible.
Quote from Trader666:
That's the whole point. Clarity would show there's no substance so it must be avoided at all costs. Jack's been playing "the wise old man who speaks in riddles" on the internet for over a decade.
In 1999 (before ET on Usenet), some guys from Harvard came up empty handed after trying to decipher Jack's "teachings" for more than a year. Look at posts # 1 and 2 here:http://groups.google.com/group/misc..._frm/thread/e21428336d0962ed/4088dacd0b5143e7
Now look at how they felt over a year later. Tell me this doesn't sound familiar:
...I don't understand why it's not possible to verify such a successful futures trading system if it is based on objective rules. My own attempts to automate the system have been frustrated at every turn by an enormous problem that is apparently only resolvable by gut instinct... I have spent a great deal of time respectfully reading and thinking about what you have written, but mostly what I feel now is frustration.
http://groups.google.com/group/misc..._frm/thread/ccc785d53a418f8a/ad6210f80809669d
For anyone thinking, "well maybe he can trade but he just can't explain his ideas" FORGET IT! In a trading contest where Jack couldn't fake it, he came in dead last with -24%. I think that taught him a lesson and since then he's evaded demos and proof like the plague. For example, Jack's never demonstrated his claim that he routinely makes 3X daily range in ES and has run away from several trading challenges.
Jack also promised his former IBD group to turn $10,000 into $1 Million in 100 days and document it on ET... but that never happened either.
http://www.mediafire.com/?1gi2qygm3yh
I could go on but believe I've made my point.
Here are more of Jack's "quote details of reasoning":
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1555191&#post1555191Quote from jack hershey:
For a while I participated with a multidisciplinary team at a learning hospital at the invitation of my psychiatrist who is also a Native American shaman.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2106468&#post2106468Quote from jack hershey:
Even Jiminy Cricket has his old fashioned neck tie off or loose. this is a real treat for the mind.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2111426#post2111426Quote from jack hershey:
This is THE place in THE world to be when I post. If you are so stupid to not have 3m micorpore tape to tape your mouth shut, then use the stupid person's painful type tape.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2610703#post2610703Quote from jack hershey:
what distinguishes me from Forbes 400 people is that they are greedy and selfish and I am not
Quote from jack hershey:
See attachment.
Attachment: quote details of reasoning.doc
This ET thread actually forward tests Hershey's so called method with the assistance of none other than Himself. A poster named ScottD put Hershey's ideas into tradestation and the results were.......... drumroll..............
some good days some bad days, overall net unprofitable. ScottD gave up.
However, the take away is that Hershey's ideas were reduced to program code:
Very clear and very precise, just not very PROFOUND.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2213671#post2213671
some good days some bad days, overall net unprofitable. ScottD gave up.
However, the take away is that Hershey's ideas were reduced to program code:
Very clear and very precise, just not very PROFOUND.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2213671#post2213671
- Status
- Not open for further replies.