How to prepare for Sunday open?

S

salamanderforex

Hello,

I have a USD.CAD short position that I would like to cover quickly on Sunday as markets open.

What factors play into the game (Specifically for USD.CAD) that are available to be researched on Saturday and early Sunday to estimate the market movement for opening on Sunday?

I understand this weekend is particularly volatile for this pair because of the upcoming oil meeting on Monday. I am charting crude prices VS CAD to see if I can get a number (in case the 10 million barrel cut goes through on Monday).

Thanks,
 
AJFCapital said:
Crude vs CAD would def be a good thing to look at, like you said.
I know IG has GBPUSD weekend trading, so I'll look at that every now and then over the weekend to see what the USD is up to. It just sucks that they only have GBPUSD and no other pairs for the weekend.

https://www.ig.com/en/indices/markets-indices/Weekend GBPUSD
More...

Thanks!

A- Any other brokers are open for any other pairs?

Keeping an eye on other currencies is a great idea. I was thinking:

1- To look at the markets that open on Sunday sooner than my local market. I am assuming London opens at 5pm Sunday too which will give me a few hours head start.
2- Compare other pairs like you mentioned. BUT GBPUSD has a very low correlation to USDCAD so it will be a big gamble to go by that. Correlation coefficient for GBP.USD to USD.CAD for last week is -40.8%.

Anyone has any other ideas?

B- If I am to look at crude vs USDCAD, which crude type should I be looking for? only Canadian basket? or WTI?

C- How to read any Contracts or Options of USD.CAD that is available? Would reading those help?

D- What does the big number of shorts mean? Here is some news that came up at 4:57 on Friday 1:17 EST. But it's not up to day as it says till March 31:


UPDATE 1-U.S. dollar net shorts hit largest since May 2018 - CFTC, Reuters data
(Adds new comment, table, details)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, April 3 (Reuters) - Speculators' net short U.S.
dollar positioning in the latest week touched their largest
level since May 2018, according to calculations by Reuters and
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on
Friday.
The value of the net short dollar position was $9.91 billion
in the week ended March 31, from net shorts of $8.88 billion the
previous week. Speculators were short the U.S. dollar for three
straight weeks.
U.S. dollar positioning was derived from net contracts of
International Monetary Market speculators in the Japanese yen,
euro, British pound, Swiss franc and Canadian and Australian
dollars.
In a wider measure of dollar positioning <0#NETUSDFX=> that
includes net contracts on the New Zealand dollar, Mexican peso,
Brazilian real and Russian ruble, the U.S. dollar posted a net
short position of $8.69 billion, from net shorts of $7.86
billion the week before.
The dollar has been pressured in the last few weeks by a
slew of U.S. Federal Reserve measures to flood the financial
system with greenbacks to address a liquidity crunch caused in
part by demand for the American currency.
Going into the end of March, portfolio managers around the
world were also short the dollar amid massive underperformance
of U.S assets during the month.
The dollar index <=USD> was down nearly 4% at the end of
last week, before posting a weekly gain of 2.3% this week.
Investors have remained attached to the dollar by virtue of
its safe-haven status and will remain so in the foreseeable
future.
"Since month-end, we have had new risk-off headlines to
digest," said Erik Bregar, head of FX strategy at Exchange Bank
of Canada in Toronto, which is supportive of the U.S. dollar.

Japanese Yen (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)
$-2.125 billion
31 Mar 2020 Prior week
week
Long 48,444 56,528
Short 30,162 32,665
Net 18,282 23,863

EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)
$-10.236 billion
31 Mar 2020 Prior week
week
Long 155,047 152,360
Short 80,800 91,070
Net 74,247 61,290

POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,500 pounds sterling)
$-0.388 billion
31 Mar 2020 Prior week
week
Long 37,149 46,534
Short 32,156 35,650
Net 4,993 10,884

SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)
$-0.644 billion
31 Mar 2020 Prior week
week
Long 10,389 10,294
Short 5,442 5,403
Net 4,947 4,891

CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)
$1.56 billion
31 Mar 2020 Prior week
week
Long 21,517 21,323
Short 43,446 50,568
Net -21,929 -29,245

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)
$1.943 billion
31 Mar 2020 Prior week
week
Long 27,315 31,024
Short 58,979 56,231
Net -31,664 -25,207

MEXICAN PESO (Contracts of 500,000 pesos)
$-0.162 billion
31 Mar 2020 Prior week
week
Long 28,435 40,783
Short 20,770 18,804
Net 7,665 21,979

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 New Zealand dollars)
$0.959 billion
31 Mar 2020 Prior week
week
Long 8,040 6,993
Short 24,146 23,009
Net -16,106 -16,016

(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
Editing by Chris Reese and Jonathan Oatis)
((gertrude.chavez@thomsonreuters.com; 646-223-6322; Reuters
Messaging: rm://gertrude.chavez.reuters.com@reuters.net))

Rank : positive

Related tickers: None

All English Language News: All English Language News

Language: English language code

Other: Debt International News Service (Reuters), Domestic Newspool (Reuters), Eastern Europe, Euromarket Domestic News Service (Reuters), FX / Debt International News Service (Reuters), Forex Markets, Market Focus International News Service (Reuters), Money International News Service (Reuters), Reuters Markets Newspool (Reuters), Reuters Treasury Newspool (Reuters)

Region Related: Asia, Eastern Europe, United States of America, Western Europe

E- And what does this mean? 66% of client accounts are short on this market. Are people usually right? Would USD lose once it opens on Sunday or coming days?
iBRfPI.jpg

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The oil meetup for Monday was already cancelled and delayed to April 9 yesterday. Pays to read news that directly affect your position. Also, why, as an absolute beginner do you hold positions over the weekend in such volatile environment in a highly volatile fx pair? Usdcad is the new gbpusd (each percent translates into many more pips than other majors now, which is the same as saying that your cad notional exposure is way bigger than your traded usd notional). As @SunTrader said, there is nothing to prepare, execute your trade when Wellington and Sydney are coming in on Monday morning.

salamanderforex said:
Hello,

I have a USD.CAD short position that I would like to cover quickly on Sunday as markets open.

What factors play into the game (Specifically for USD.CAD) that are available to be researched on Saturday and early Sunday to estimate the market movement for opening on Sunday?

I understand this weekend is particularly volatile for this pair because of the upcoming oil meeting on Monday. I am charting crude prices VS CAD to see if I can get a number (in case the 10 million barrel cut goes through on Monday).

Thanks,
More...
 
SunTrader said:
You have a USDCAD short that you want to cover quickly on Sunday.

What's to research? Click the button that says buy or buy to cover.

Glad I could help.
More...

Yep, I used wrong words. I can't have it both ways :)
I don't have to close quickly. I need to close at best price and can wait if I know it goes back to normal of Friday. Prices jumped like crazy end of day Friday and I don't know the reason for it. So, don't want to cover my position at a loss if that was a fluke and rather wait till price stabilizes again and sell.
 
FrankInLa said:
The oil meetup for Monday was already cancelled and delayed to April 9 yesterday. Pays to read news that directly affect your position. Also, why, as an absolute beginner do you hold positions over the weekend in such volatile environment in a highly volatile fx pair? Usdcad is the new gbpusd (each percent translates into many more pips than other majors now, which is the same as saying that your cad notional exposure is way bigger than your traded usd notional). As @SunTrader said, there is nothing to prepare, execute your trade when Wellington and Sydney are coming in on Monday morning.
More...

Yep, was just reading that news. I used wrong choice of word saying, "Quickly".
As for as short position over weekend goes, I forgot it's a Friday (GREAT!).

Now, the oil should drop I am assuming because Trumpy's words didn't hold and seems Russia/Saudi are trying to bleed US shale.

Anyone can comment on my points from A to E in previous posts?
 
salamanderforex said:
Yep, was just reading that news. I used wrong choice of word saying, "Quickly".
As for as short position over weekend goes, I forgot it's a Friday (GREAT!).

Now, the oil should drop I am assuming because Trumpy's words didn't hold and seems Russia/Saudi are trying to bleed US shale.

Anyone can comment on my points from A to E in previous posts?
More...
 
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