How To Not Chase?

[easymon1]

Let us say we are in a long bias on a stock, I would usually wait for lows, but I want confirmation that it will hold, I think this is where I get sucked in and chase when my thesis was right but I didn't go in.

From the perspective of the Timeframe of your primary decisionmaking chart, Would you say you are trading Reversals or Pullbacks?

 

[arturo100]

I chase, I will admit it, and it is painful to watch my trades turn red. Then I hope for it to go back up. I just can't sell the highs or buy the lows. I always chase into a move. I think I expect a large run in that direction or further fuel to the fire when I chase. I review my trades and I am literally someone else's, exit. I just can't seem to short the lower highs that form or buy the higher lows when I want to go short/long. I know I chase I just can't not chase when in the moment.

I guess my question is, for people who buy lows what is your conviction to do so? I was thinking of trying to buy lows when they start turning and scratch them when they fail. Chasing is really the bane of my trading for now.

Now that I write this, I can see what my thinking is. When I pull the trigger and expect a selloff v.s. when I don't pull the trigger because I fear a sell off. Greed and fear, right in front of my eyes.

Get a free account at chess.com and throw a challenge after placing your bid. Play a few games and come back.
Not a chess player? Then, go for a massage.

 

[chaser123]

What style are you trading? What is your typical time horizon?

Right now, I'm swing trading and speculating, with a time horizon in weeks. Personally, understanding _why_ I took a position helps me to hang in there when it moves against me. If I've done the hard work of studying a trade, have a solid thesis, and got in with a good understanding of what I'm doing, it helps me to stick to my guns when it goes red in the near term. Then the fear and hope is replaced by expectation that it will swing back to me. Even then, sometimes I am wrong--but I can look back, see what I missed, and take it as a lesson.

For example, I studied what was going on, with all the QE, money printing, grants, and liquidity being poured into the economy. I believed that this would weaken the dollar and cause inflation. I built a diversified portfolio against this thesis. Because I believed in my ideas, I was able to hang in there when it moved against me. Annualized I'm up 12% on the trade so far... but this week I needed the guts hang in!

Intraday Trading.

A trader on twitter once said that people kept telling him that they need more discipline like he has.

And he said, "You don't need more self-discipline, you just haven't been ass-fucked hard enough yet".

Do i need to tell you why you keep chasing?

True, this is why I posted on this forum.

you know those guys that define trend as "higher highs/higher lows or lower highs/lower lows"? those are confused ass traders.. you follow them, you will waste your life looking at charts all day. these are the same guys that start courses and in the fine print would have "results are dependent on individual traders"

Al brooks is a classic example. indian traders love this mofo

make your rules 100% programmable, even if you trade it manually. if not, you're gonna keep falling into this "why i'm such a bitch ass pussy and get out of trades too soon? or jump too early?" cycle

I don't follow anyone, I look at tape and my definition of a trend. 100% programmable is quite difficult for me. I may try but not right now.

From the perspective of the Timeframe of your primary decisionmaking chart, Would you say you are trading Reversals or Pullbacks?

Pull backs, I do play some reversals if I see it can reverse.

Get a free account at chess.com and throw a challenge after placing your bid. Play a few games and come back.
Not a chess player? Then, go for a massage.

Not chess but i do play a bit of poker. Good Idea, maybe I need to distract myself from bad setups.

I think my biggest problem is pulling the trigger at the point I want. I always want confirmation, but when the confirmation happens the move is already running out of steam, and heads into another pullback. Which is not good for my mental.

Thanks for the comments.

 

[easymon1]

at the point I want. I always want confirmation

Show a chart or two each that worked and did not work?

 

[kmiklas]

Intraday Trading

I find it hard to have confidence trading this style. I always saw it as a 50/50 gamble, minus commissions and fees. You might as well play craps and roll the dice.

- You're at the mercy of whatever technical you picked.
- At any time a Portfolio Manager can suddenly enter/exit their position, leaving you in the red.
- You're up against quant firms with expensive hardware. They have a Ferrari, and you have a tricycle.
- Said quant firms hire Ph.D.'s in math and physics--hired specifically to beat out your dollar-store retail technical analysis.
- Where is your edge? Can you say with any level of confidence that you'll win on 4 of 7 trades? even 51 of 100?

I'd say adjust your trading style to a time horizon where you have an edge. Then you will trade with confidence, knowing that your trades are based on your work, experience, and mind.

 

[easymon1]

I find it hard to have confidence trading this style. I always saw it as a 50/50 gamble, minus commissions and fees. You might as well play craps and roll the dice.

- You're at the mercy of whatever technical you picked.
- At any time a Portfolio Manager can suddenly enter/exit their position, leaving you in the red.
- You're up against quant firms with expensive hardware. They have a Ferrari, and you have a tricycle.
- Said quant firms hire Ph.D.'s in math and physics--hired specifically to beat out your dollar-store retail technical analysis.
- Where is your edge? Can you say with any level of confidence that you'll win on 4 of 7 trades? even 51 of 100?

I'd say adjust your trading style to a time horizon where you have an edge. Then you will trade with confidence, knowing that your trades are based on your work, experience, and mind.

Show a chart or two of your preferred timeframe that worked and did not work?

 

[kmiklas]

Show a chart or two of your preferred timeframe that worked and did not work?

I don't have charts, but my best has been swing trading (weeks) based on my market insights and observations in my field (tech, telecom, finance).

Anything lower than that has proven to be a gamble. As a computer programmer by trade, this came as a surprise to me. I thought'd I'd write some algos to drain money out of the markets in milliseconds, and put me into early retirement. Maybe 20 years ago... not in today's markets! I ran into the problems discussed above--and a whole lot more.

Now my algos process data and observations into trading information. They are an input into my decision making. A far cry from what I set out to do.

 

[easymon1]

I don't have charts, but my best has been swing trading (weeks) based on my market insights and observations in my field (tech, telecom, finance).

Anything lower than that has proven to be a gamble. As a computer programmer by trade, this came as a surprise to me. I thought'd I'd write some algos to drain money out of the markets in milliseconds, and put me into early retirement. Maybe 20 years ago... not in today's markets! I ran into the problems discussed above--and a whole lot more.

Now my algos process data and observations into trading information. They are an input into my decision making. A far cry from what I set out to do.

Do you do any hands-on manual trading based on technical analysis?

 

[kmiklas]

Do you do any hands-on manual trading based on technical analysis?

I do hands-on manual trading, but not with technical analysis. I just don't believe in it; don't have faith in it.

...let me amend that statement: I do believe in technical trading, but I don't believe that retail tools can outsmart the heavy iron of institutional traders. I think that if there's technical alpha or arbitrage in the market, Citadel, Point72, Renaissance, et alia's LL algos will identify and soak it up long before I even get a price quote.

I refuse to play a game I can't win. That's why I moved my time horizon out to weeks. It's the shortest time frame where I have some edges. I play the big swings.

As I said before, it's like trying to win a race against a Ferrari riding a tricycle. Another example: ever try and play chess against a computer at full strength? That's what you're doing in technical trading--the hedge funds are the Chess computer, and you're the amateur.

 

[arturo100]

I find it hard to have confidence trading this style. I always saw it as a 50/50 gamble, minus commissions and fees. You might as well play craps and roll the dice.

- You're at the mercy of whatever technical you picked.
- At any time a Portfolio Manager can suddenly enter/exit their position, leaving you in the red.
- You're up against quant firms with expensive hardware. They have a Ferrari, and you have a tricycle.
- Said quant firms hire Ph.D.'s in math and physics--hired specifically to beat out your dollar-store retail technical analysis.
- Where is your edge? Can you say with any level of confidence that you'll win on 4 of 7 trades? even 51 of 100?

I'd say adjust your trading style to a time horizon where you have an edge. Then you will trade with confidence, knowing that your trades are based on your work, experience, and mind.

Ver

I don't have charts, but my best has been swing trading (weeks) based on my market insights and observations in my field (tech, telecom, finance).

Anything lower than that has proven to be a gamble. As a computer programmer by trade, this came as a surprise to me. I thought'd I'd write some algos to drain money out of the markets in milliseconds, and put me into early retirement. Maybe 20 years ago... not in today's markets! I ran into the problems discussed above--and a whole lot more.

Now my algos process data and observations into trading information. They are an input into my decision making. A far cry from what I set out to do.

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing these details on your setup. If I may ask, which ones have been the best years, i.e. more productive, of your trading?