How to measure probability of side ways move

taowave · Jun 7, 2022

Ahhh,I see you are an "educated consumer" and know what's up

I dont love what you are doing as selling 2 -6 day gamma doesnt really accomplish much IMHO..

Whats the sense in selling a cash covered put where you will own the asset down 1-2 percent??

MacBookProHo · Jun 7, 2022

SimpleMeLike said:
Hello MacBookProHo,
When you state "daily S&P"

Are you referring to Daily /ES bars ?

I'm referring to the daily chart/trade of the S&P 500, SPX ticker symbol.
I don't use nothing technical or fancy or indicators or volume or anything....I just stare at the smooth line. And get a general, vague, magical, sixth sense feeling of where I currently am, and where the future chart will expectedly, generally, progress and move to for the day.

I have the S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell lines all in the one chart I'm staring at to get a good grasp of the general economy movement for the day.

ondafringe · Jun 7, 2022

MacBookProHo said:
I'm referring to the daily chart/trade of the S&P 500, SPX ticker symbol.
I don't use nothing technical or fancy or indicators or volume or anything....I just stare at the smooth line. And get a general, vague, magical, sixth sense feeling of where I currently am, and where the future chart will expectedly, generally, progress and move to for the day.

I have the S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell lines all in the one chart I'm staring at to get a good grasp of the general economy movement for the day.

I'm beginning to think you are the reincarnation of SPX Options Trader.

SimpleMeLike · Jun 7, 2022

MacBookProHo said:
I'm referring to the daily chart/trade of the S&P 500, SPX ticker symbol.
I don't use nothing technical or fancy or indicators or volume or anything....I just stare at the smooth line. And get a general, vague, magical, sixth sense feeling of where I currently am, and where the future chart will expectedly, generally, progress and move to for the day.

I have the S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell lines all in the one chart I'm staring at to get a good grasp of the general economy movement for the day.

Thanks for explaining MacBookProHo

volpri · Jun 7, 2022

MacBookProHo said:
I'm referring to the daily chart/trade of the S&P 500, SPX ticker symbol.
I don't use nothing technical or fancy or indicators or volume or anything....I just stare at the smooth line. And get a general, vague, magical, sixth sense feeling of where I currently am, and where the future chart will expectedly, generally, progress and move to for the day.

I have the S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell lines all in the one chart I'm staring at to get a good grasp of the general economy movement for the day.

How can you sell that magical 6th sense for a million bucks?

MacBookProHo · Jun 7, 2022

volpri said:
How can you sell that magical 6th sense for a million bucks?

There is much more to it, then I'm letting on here. I'm just being vague and simplistic here. Regarding my trade process for trading the S&P daily.
Assuming, someone can replicate my trade process...they can literally become a millionaire in under a year by growing and compounding their daily S&P trade averages. So yes, I would say my trade process....is worth a million bucks, while keeping a straight face.

volpri · Jun 7, 2022

MacBookProHo said:
There is much more to it, then I'm letting on here. I'm just being vague and simplistic here. Regarding my trade process for trading the S&P daily.
Assuming, someone can replicate my trade process...they can literally become a millionaire in under a year by growing and compounding their daily S&P trade averages. So yes, I would say my trade process....is worth a million bucks, while keeping a straight face.

Zwaen · Jun 7, 2022

bln said:
Valid points.

In reality both the legs of the short strangle are covered. The upper Call leg is covered by long term position in the index and the lower Put leg is covered by portfolio margin buying power. I will hold the strangle until expiration/cash settlement. If need to defend a leg I may do delta hedging of that side.

Why I'm attracted to the strangle is because it provides uncorrelated/anti-correlated returns and that is something I want as it will smooth out long term portfolio volatility and lower over all risk.

do you select your hedging part because of the long term upward bias?(instead of hedging both legs equally)

btw experimenting with leg combinations itm/otm (both hedged) also can be interesting, although otm is more liquid and preferable imo

VSTscalper · Jun 7, 2022

volpri said:
View attachment 286296

Funny - the cat looks almost exactly like ours - same markings.

I sent you a Private Message.

Overnight · Jun 7, 2022

MacBookProHo said:
There is much more to it, then I'm letting on here. I'm just being vague and simplistic here. Regarding my trade process for trading the S&P daily.
Assuming, someone can replicate my trade process...they can literally become a millionaire in under a year by growing and compounding their daily S&P trade averages. So yes, I would say my trade process....is worth a million bucks, while keeping a straight face.

If I may chime in here....it's because he (MackBookProHo) basically doesn't know what he is doing. And he realizes he's just gambling and his occasional wins are merely based on luck. The simple law of averages and numbers.
That's why he's scared and so nervous to add on size, grow his account and trades, and compound the overall process.