Dear Mr Apple,
Your system is too high! Where is the comradery? Could you not give ET’ers a 99.999% discount for your course?
Too High
How to measure probability of side ways move
- Thread starter bln
- Start date
Dear Mr Apple,
Your system is too high! Where is the comradery? Could you not give ET’ers a 99.999% discount for your course?
Too High
"Then he simply traded the box, and that's how he got rich."
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...t-right-here-baby.335635/page-25#post-5534410
I agree. It's 100% fact-checked true.
But in terms of predicting a "range", I don't think there's anything more simple than Darvas Box.
Pullbacks in a trend are a small range of sorts then the trend resumes. It is important WHEN to determine if a sideways to down movement in a bull trend is just a PB, or is price actually going into a range. The best way I know to know how is to give it 15 to 20 bars of sideways movement. That, in itself establishes the boundaries of a range. Once I have determined it is a range condition as opposed to a PB then I use range trading tactics. Fading the top and bottom limits. And of course averaging down at times as I fade the limits.
The probabilities are high that the range, once established, will continue for a while. About 70% to 80% of the time price will meander back and forth in an ESTABLISHED range. You can prove this to yourself by looking visually at any price chart that has an established range. Markets have inertia and tend to keep doing what they are doing until they do in fact change. Examples: a trend continues with PBs until the PB morph into a range. A range continues as a range until there is a SUCCESSFUL BO OF THE RANGE. You can find the definition of a successful BO in my journal if you have a mind to study it.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...-trading-the-es-nq-ym-mes-mnq-and-mym.336259/
Of course in bear trends it would be a sideways to up move that I would watch to see if that reaction is a PB only or is it morphing into a range. Same rules as above apply.
Here is an old example of mine. Remember, in a range condition, most BO ATTEMPTS FAIL. We can capitalize on that phenomena. One BO will eventually succeed then market conditions change into a trend. Then that will require different tactics for trading entries and exits. This stuff repeats over and over again and again in ALL markets. It is called the market cycle. You can see it on this weeks charts or on charts 80 years old. Not much is really new in PA. We just didn’t know to call it price action years ago. All consolidations and accumulations are just range PA behavior. They are some of the most lucrative environments to trade in as they offer so many opportunities to trade.
Unfortunately most retail traders today don’t like range trading and especially the day traders refer to it as “chop”. That is because they use the wrong tactics and get whipsawed around.
The probabilities are high that the range, once established, will continue for a while. About 70% to 80% of the time price will meander back and forth in an ESTABLISHED range. You can prove this to yourself by looking visually at any price chart that has an established range. Markets have inertia and tend to keep doing what they are doing until they do in fact change. Examples: a trend continues with PBs until the PB morph into a range. A range continues as a range until there is a SUCCESSFUL BO OF THE RANGE. You can find the definition of a successful BO in my journal if you have a mind to study it.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...-trading-the-es-nq-ym-mes-mnq-and-mym.336259/
Of course in bear trends it would be a sideways to up move that I would watch to see if that reaction is a PB only or is it morphing into a range. Same rules as above apply.
Here is an old example of mine. Remember, in a range condition, most BO ATTEMPTS FAIL. We can capitalize on that phenomena. One BO will eventually succeed then market conditions change into a trend. Then that will require different tactics for trading entries and exits. This stuff repeats over and over again and again in ALL markets. It is called the market cycle. You can see it on this weeks charts or on charts 80 years old. Not much is really new in PA. We just didn’t know to call it price action years ago. All consolidations and accumulations are just range PA behavior. They are some of the most lucrative environments to trade in as they offer so many opportunities to trade.
Unfortunately most retail traders today don’t like range trading and especially the day traders refer to it as “chop”. That is because they use the wrong tactics and get whipsawed around.
Trading is so much easier, or more profitable and successful, if you reasonably know what to hunt for, know what to generally expect for. And get in at the right moment, and leave around the right moment.
Similar to assassinating JFK. Imagine if Lee Harvey brought a machine gun on each arm...and randomly shot at the white house. Just...Hoping...to randomly strike the President on mere luck. Good luck with that approach. The man did his homework.
So many old and new traders try to merely trace lines with technical analysis....how many millionaires has that produced? Only the top dreams salesmen with the gift of the gab are the one's getting rich with that.
If you treat trading like a casino...you will get casino results. I can't really delve further without giving anything away.
Imagine being able to trade the daily S&P everyday....what would that be worth to you, or anyone else?
Last edited:
His name was Lee Harvey Oswald - and he would have NEVER hit the White House - because he shot the President in Dallas, Texas.
Roflmao! That would be a ……looooong….. shot by the wrong killer.
Give it up Mac PUT YOUR system to open review. Most ain’t gonna do anything with it anyway……and quit throwing teasers…LOL.
It's not really a "system". The trade process is more part left brain, and part right brain. I don't claim to be bullet proof, but certainly a high hit ratio, combined with riding the winners and minimizing losses....it might as well be referred to as the Holy Grail.
I don't make a tiny tiny % per trade/day, because I combine the S&P movement with options, that's the amplifying key.