how to manage false breakouts on NQ ES
- Thread starter pawpaw
- Start date
kgharris - the first part is the middle dollar question. What I can tell you is that definitely no way never will I give it that amount of time. The Bollinger line would have been all over the place in such a longer time period. I'm looking for situation where (ideally) the breakout occurs within 2-10 bars after the pivit high happened. The fewer bars the better. Let's say the Boll line and Mov Avg line is up and a pivot high occurs. I don't want the Mov Avg line to turn down again before the breakout. Because then, it would have entered congestion ("shit") and I'm not interested in playing in that area. I want the market to have been strong in the last few bars, then stay strong while my pivot forms. So, if you want to add another "rule" to my ideas, try this:
Remember my time periods for trading? The pivot high (or low) must also occur in this time period. Example: you come back at 14:00 EST for the final trade. You cannot buy or sell a pivot that occured before 14:00. As ever, I'll break this rule when I feel like it(!), but I'll never break it referencing a pivot from several HOURS earlier.
- Your second point. Of course I don't! If you've got me figured yet, you'll understand that the sharing of ideas is secondary to me
My primary purpose is really just to abuse all the Gurus, Groupies and Establishment types that kiss each others arse all day long. In this manner, I can seek revenge for all the times they have driven away good people with their inane 'clique-like' drivvel, or abused them away with their obnoxiousness and arrogance. The best way to accomplish this mission to first post something of interest. Kinda like James Bond with his License To Kill. Page 24 is just my 'License to Fuck' with people for my personal amusement. I'm such a sad asshole I know! In my mind, we have seen the lowest form of life of this board but it ain't been from me. Guys who will come here, take my shit for their personal use, never give me anything back, never say thanks, and then tell me to leave. Those fuckers are the lowest.
About the only half-positive thing I can say for anyone I've abused so far, is groupie-boy Magna ...he hasn't yet lowered himself to censoring my ass by taking down a post. It'll probably happen at some point though. So if I just disappear without saying goodbye, you'll know what happened and can either abuse or salute him, depending on how you see it
candletrader - can you tell me "Brother" at what point in your posting life, you passed into the land of inane useless drivvel-speak? Was it the 1000 post mark, or did you wait until 2000? Can you also confirm what when you hit 3000 your balls turn green and your head is physically unable to be pulled out your ass? If you can ask one of your fellow Brothers and get back to me, I would appreciate it.
Well caught my son, street cred just gone up a point! But you gotta understand my style. If I say: I trade this, I trade, and I trade the other" then it just gets lost. If I say it in a "nice" way then it also gets lost. But if I rant "I ONLY trade breakouts, Motherfuckers" then minds get focussed. I'm not Jack the Guru with 10 indicators and complex crap that noone understands, even himself. To be 'technical' about it, my statement was also accurate. I am only trading breakouts right now, so it depends on what time period we are talking about.
The commonalities between my breakout and pullback trading are there. Same simple indicator, same times of day, only once maybe twice. But there's way more discretionary shit with my pullback trading compared to my breakout trading which adheres closely to the rules. Sometimes you can provide TMI (Too Much Information). I'll tell you right now, that my real-world trading is full of little inconsistencies. But what I've actually said is "here is a good starter for 10. Now you go figure the grey areas".
However, your observation makes you a smart-alec, wise-ass. That I like!
Quote from Simtrader:
- Your second point. Of course I don't! If you've got me figured yet, you'll understand that the sharing of ideas is secondary to me
In my mind, we have seen the lowest form of life of this board but it ain't been from me. Guys who will come here, take my shit for their personal use, never give me anything back, never say thanks, and then tell me to leave. Those fuckers are the lowest.
About the only half-positive thing I can say for anyone I've abused so far, is groupie-boy Magna ...he hasn't yet lowered himself to censoring my ass by taking down a post. It'll probably happen at some point though. So if I just disappear without saying goodbye, you'll know what happened and can either abuse or salute him, depending on how you see it
Well, well Robin Hood is alive and well and "getting revenge for all the good people" ............Noble indeed.
Simtrader you've found your true home amongst the "Gurus, Groupies and Establishment types"....................geeezus you are one sad fucking wanker
Get a life man!
OK since I've been exposed anyway as a bullshit artist(!), here's an attached pullback trade from today June 9th. Chart Time is European i.e. 6 hours ahead of yankee EST. The two markets are DAX and ESTX50. 25 Euro/point (12.50/tick) and 10 Euro/point (tick is 1 point) respectively. Usual rules: Only first two hours, trade only once. Just the Bollinger Band & Mov Avg again. 15pt goal in Dax, 10-15 in ESTX50.
The sell bar must be be spiking above the upper Boll line and it must closely strongly under it. Sell one tick under this bar, and this must happen on the very next bar else cancel the order. Always check the 'other' market for confirmation i.e. a similar bar.
The sell bar was 10:00. Straight down to it's target no problem. But you might notice the bar 3 bars before and wonder why that wasn't the sell bar. I would reply "Aww shit, you're getting into discretionary stuff now". Would it make sense if I said, because it didn't spike 'enough' above the Boll line, because it's range looked small, and because it's low was too close to the Mov Avg line? And because no breakout signal had been given? I thought not - which is why we shouldn't be even discussing this crap and why I ONLY trade breakouts Picking highs like this is a mugs game.
Same rules in reverse for buying long.
If you only follow the breakout stuff, you will make 50% fewer trades than me, and 100% fewer mistakes. The only reason I do it is to ensure that I can trade at least once nearly everyday. But it's not a good place to start. Make some money first, before you give it back via this crap
I believe the most important thing you can take from this post is the need to start charting the DAX & ESTX50 alonsgide the ES and YM (the NQ doesn't show much anymore in my mind). Put all four charts on one screen with 4 boxes. 5 min, Boll Bands & Mov Avg. If you do nothing but this, I believe you will have learned something. I can't tell you the number of times ifrom 09:40am to 11:30 yankee EST when one market has helped to trade or exit another.
If you don't have a lot of money, or don't want to change your datafeed or charting software. No problem, just use IB as your broker and it only costs 8 Euros a month to get Eurex quotes (get CME, CBOT for free to chart ES/YM while you're at it). You can pair this up with a cheap software like www.sierrachart.com ($42 for 6 months license) or any number of alternatives (see IB's web site). This combo should work fine on the same PC as your 'regular' datafeed/charting. I was running it alongside TS6 with no difficulty. It could become a kind of "backup" feed/charting if you have problems with your main feed.
The sell bar must be be spiking above the upper Boll line and it must closely strongly under it. Sell one tick under this bar, and this must happen on the very next bar else cancel the order. Always check the 'other' market for confirmation i.e. a similar bar.
The sell bar was 10:00. Straight down to it's target no problem. But you might notice the bar 3 bars before and wonder why that wasn't the sell bar. I would reply "Aww shit, you're getting into discretionary stuff now". Would it make sense if I said, because it didn't spike 'enough' above the Boll line, because it's range looked small, and because it's low was too close to the Mov Avg line? And because no breakout signal had been given? I thought not - which is why we shouldn't be even discussing this crap and why I ONLY trade breakouts
Picking highs like this is a mugs game.Same rules in reverse for buying long.
If you only follow the breakout stuff, you will make 50% fewer trades than me, and 100% fewer mistakes. The only reason I do it is to ensure that I can trade at least once nearly everyday. But it's not a good place to start. Make some money first, before you give it back via this crap
I believe the most important thing you can take from this post is the need to start charting the DAX & ESTX50 alonsgide the ES and YM (the NQ doesn't show much anymore in my mind). Put all four charts on one screen with 4 boxes. 5 min, Boll Bands & Mov Avg. If you do nothing but this, I believe you will have learned something. I can't tell you the number of times ifrom 09:40am to 11:30 yankee EST when one market has helped to trade or exit another.
If you don't have a lot of money, or don't want to change your datafeed or charting software. No problem, just use IB as your broker and it only costs 8 Euros a month to get Eurex quotes (get CME, CBOT for free to chart ES/YM while you're at it). You can pair this up with a cheap software like www.sierrachart.com ($42 for 6 months license) or any number of alternatives (see IB's web site). This combo should work fine on the same PC as your 'regular' datafeed/charting. I was running it alongside TS6 with no difficulty. It could become a kind of "backup" feed/charting if you have problems with your main feed.
Klutz - is that by name or by nature? You sorry little little pea-brain shithead asshole? Robin Hood was way too much of a fucking do-gooder for me - I would've kept the lot. You're right about one thing though - I am a sad fucking wanker. Except that I'm a wanker with a "license". See page 24. You on the other hand, are JUST a wanker.
My guess is that you're yet another Hershey groupie missing his leader. Don't worry, he'll be back later. So why don't you drop your pants now and oil yourself up in preparation!