how to manage false breakouts on NQ ES

Have to agree with Ditch. European markets have been very difficult to trade lately: no volatility at all. So rather strange to see someone advise trading the dax for the moment. ES is much better to trade for the moment.
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Is that what Ditch was saying?! That guy doesn't follow or trade anything on Eurex so how would he know anything? The fact is simply this: if you want to aim for a 15pt DAX profit and only trade in the first two hours of Eurex open, and maybe first two hours of Globex open ...you are virtually assured of finding 5-10 opportunities to do this every week. At 375 Euro profit per contract ...that's good enough.

I don't care what the markets are doing "overall". I don't even care what they are doing outside of my focus hours! I just care about a method to make money. That's the issue here. Like I said on page 24, let everyone else fight over the middle shit. I just wanna hit and run on a quick momentum move. Then I piss off until later in the day or tomorrow. My best trading days are when I'm in the market for no more than 30 minutes.

You stick a 5 minute DAX and ESTX50 chart next to your ES and YM (or NQ) charts and follow them all for a week side-by-side. Then tell me which is better to trade in the first two hours. Don't get me wrong, I like the ES. It's just that you have to deal with more fakeouts in that market.

Pretzel - that 04:00am DAX bar breakout is looking pretty. Seven bars later & it's a few ticks shy of it's target. But stop is now under 04:45am bar (strongish up bar) to lock in at least 5 point profit. Oops, just stopped out during the 04:55 bar for a 125 Euro profit. C'est la vie. Try again after 09:40 EST.
 
No but when has this run happened? Exactly at the time us markets open. In my opinion, better to trade es (the leader) than a derivative of it and the dax is a just derivative of es when es opens.
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There is that school of thought and often with merit. But it's not so clear-cut that the ES always leads while the DAX or ESTX50 always follow. If you track them all together side-by-side, you will see what I mean.

Plenty of times, you'll get a good signal in the DAX or ESTX50 that "leads" the ES. At other times, the Euro markets are better to trade because while the ES is breaking out, they remain static. A sure sign that the ES is likely to fail. When all four line up the same way at the same ...it's time to load the boat.

Bottom line? One needs to track all four to get the full picture IMO. Then over time, you will develop a feel for what leads what, and who is faking and who is real. But to state the ES is the only symbol that matters in US market hours just isn't true. After the first two hours of US oopen ...then I would say yes, forget the DAx and ESTX50 because they become useless followers at that point. But the first two hours ..they are just as good if not better than the ES.
 
Quote from Simtrader:



Is that what Ditch was saying?! That guy doesn't follow or trade anything on Eurex so how would he know anything? The fact is simply this: if you want to aim for a 15pt DAX profit and only trade in the first two hours of Eurex open, and maybe first two hours of Globex open ...you are virtually assured of finding 5-10 opportunities to do this every week. At 375 Euro profit per contract ...that's good enough.

I don't care what the markets are doing "overall". I don't even care what they are doing outside of my focus hours! I just care about a method to make money. That's the issue here. Like I said on page 24, let everyone else fight over the middle shit. I just wanna hit and run on a quick momentum move. Then I piss off until later in the day or tomorrow. My best trading days are when I'm in the market for no more than 30 minutes.

You stick a 5 minute DAX and ESTX50 chart next to your ES and YM (or NQ) charts and follow them all for a week side-by-side. Then tell me which is better to trade in the first two hours. Don't get me wrong, I like the ES. It's just that you have to deal with more fakeouts in that market.

Pretzel - that 04:00am DAX bar breakout is looking pretty. Seven bars later & it's a few ticks shy of it's target. But stop is now under 04:45am bar (strongish up bar) to lock in at least 5 point profit. Oops, just stopped out during the 04:55 bar for a 125 Euro profit. C'est la vie. Try again after 09:40 EST.
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Mr. SIMULATION TRADER,

Anybody who has been following the DAX or ESTX-50 daily the last couple months knows that it's the US-markets where the money is to be made. Better do your homework, dude, and quit smoking and sniffing whatever it is.
 
Mr. SIMULATION TRADER,

Anybody who has been following the DAX or ESTX-50 daily the last couple months knows that it's the US-markets where the money is to be made. Better do your homework, dude, and quit smoking and sniffing whatever it is.[/qupte]

Don't you have anything useful to say? So now you are trying to tell me that it's not possible to make 15 Dax pts nearly every day in my chosen timeframe? You stupid jack-ass. I doubt you've even bothered to look at what I'm talking about. Why don't you post a screenshot of the Dax from 03:00 to 05:00 EST to prove to me that it can't be done?! At least then, you would be attempting a legitimate refute of what I'm saying. Better than the generic crap you wrote above.

But of course you can't post this screenshot or offer a genuine refute, because you don't even chart these markets intraday! You therefore have zero right to an opinion on whether they are tradeable you not. You're just a ignorant ass who adds no value and prefers to spend his time kissing the behind of what he thinks is the latest guru. Posting stupid 1 min charts showing how you caught every move and captured avery last tick with your 10 indicator volume analysis method. What a joke.

Starting on page 24, I've posted some interesting info. on this thread, and all you "gurettes" do is get in the bloody way of it, with your ignorant nonsense. I've never read a single post from you where I learned a damned thing. You prefer to just congregate with the other groupies, panks around the ankles, ready to stand to attention as soon as Guru Hershey walks into the room. Ready and armed to defend his honour. Jack-asses the lot of you!

Now like I say, either add value or sod off and make room for people who do. Much as I enjoy berating the groupie scene(!), I'm beginning to think I should just ignore you, and focus on the genuine posters.
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My post on your stops was just a small comment and the repost of the chart was for convenience only.

I really don't get into the advisarial stuff too often. I'm sure you make a lot of money etc and have no need to get into a dicsussion with others.

My personal stle is to try to backup the successes others are having with their methods by adding postive support to them. My income performance is in a different league than yous and most others here so I do not get into the competitive financial stuff.

the real time trading type face offs as mostly only productive in "invitation only" groups where serious like minded investors play in real time. There, soemtimes people use a specific person's methods and they all trade it. By doing this the nuances of orientation to the market,etc, come to the fore.

I would guess you are in your preopen mode now. Looks like nitro pulled down the 4 pts before the day opened. Going through 1000 with a trade on is a neat experience.

Please enjoy your time you spend here, life is short.

The open today is in a "change" orientation so reversals will be fun for you to try.
 
My personal stle is to try to backup the successes others are having with their methods by adding postive support to them. My income performance is in a different league than yous and most others here so I do not get into the competitive financial stuff.
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Now there's a contradiction if ever there was one. You don't get into competitive stuff yet you make more money than me?!! Well Jack in that case, you've definitely got me hooked. Can I have a free groupie guest pass now?

Jack, your groupies are my fodder but you personally just put me to sleep. Half the time I doubt even you know what you're on about. But the way you enjoy waxxing philosophical over the non-believers is too much. Pleeeease show me your real colour and tell me what a loser in life I am. I would so love a good sermon from you. After all, your groupies have just failed miserably to do the job.

You don't add positive support to anyone - you just enjoy your mini cult status, and like it when the groupies keep coming back for more. There's more ass-kissing in this thread than I've ever seen in my life. Folks - just read page 2 - 23 if you can stomach it!

I prefer to educate, entertain and generally screw with the gurus and groupies that control this web site. Too many good folk have been pushed off this board by your & other's groupies blowing them away. Not me: I'm your worst nightmare Jack! A lone cowboy without a following, with an attitude problem, and a wit to match. I came onto this thread like a goddamn breath of fresh air on page 24. With something to say, no less. Ain't that a rarity.

And no, life is not short Jack. It's long, beautiful and very smelly! Just ike me.
 
I tried your method with success this morning entering at 1003.75 and taking my $200 off the table at 1007.75. Blind luck or great method, too early to tell, but off to a good start.
Thanks
 
The open today is in a "change" orientation so reversals will be fun for you to try.
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You see Jack - here's your problem: You are just way too clever for me. Once again, I have absolutely no idea what the hell you are talking about.

"Change orientation"? What is that? maybe it's your 5th level volume deficiency ratio analyis of the Stochastic?! As for reversals Jack, I wouldn't know about them - I stick to breakouts. And I don't trade amongst the shit in the middle of the day.

All I know is this:
If someone is listening to this friendly neighborhood cowboy, then they just made $200 in the ES by buying above the 15:40 EST high today. So simple that a cretin could have done it. I could tell you that I'm a guru by selling so near the top but that was just luck. Honesty is such an admirable trait wouldn't you say?! Of course, it's not always that simple and there are a lot of nuances. But folks just ignore the Gurus - unless you want a good laugh as I like to have. Some of the most hilarious shit ever written, is contained in the first 23 pages of this thread. It'll keep you hollering for hours.

Guess what I'm doing for the next several hours? You got it: nothing! But maybe I'll stick around to watch Jack and his gang picks all the tops and bottoms just for fun :-) Also, maybe I'll see if his groupies want to come back and play with me some more :cool:
 
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