Quote from Simtrader:
THERE IS SOME SHITE DISCUSSED HERE! Exellent BS to waste your time.
Since you've already decided that everyone who has posted on this thread is full of shit. I won't bore you with
my opinion. Instead, I'll give you a link to an interview with a
real trader.
You might want to pay attention, because this
guy would trade your ass in the ground.
A Real Trader
You should attempt this only once (or max) twice a day.
You'll notice he makes from 60 to 80 trades a day. Quote..."You have to be willing to make a lot of trades. You're going to be a better trader by making more trades."
Hmmmmm...I guess your ways not the only
way after all, huh?
Now let's go back to the tick traders and academics for some more BS. After all, I've got so much free time between my trades to laugh at their nonsense
Are you still laughing?
how to manage false breakouts on NQ ES
- Thread starter pawpaw
- Start date
Magna
Administrator
Well, yes and no. Sure, if you look after the fact you can easily focus on some VDU's that triggered (if you will) nice moves immediately after. But if you're trading this in realtime then it gets quite a bit trickier (surprise). For instance, here's a bunch of VDU's today that triggered absolutely nothing: 10:42, 11:06, 11:27, 11:37, 11:44, 13:23, 13:33, 14:43. And I'm sure I left some out. If Jack has a suggestion how to distinguish the "good" VDU's from the do-nothing VDU's then I'm all ears. But I suspect it has to do with recognizing them in sequences, at the end of formations, etc. Taken by themselves I doubt they're of little value.
What utter nonsense. I guarantee you that none of these guys trade, or those that do: none make money. These VDU traders (what is that anyway: some sort of venereal disease?) are seriously messing up this thread with their total and utter jibberish. Tracking four indicators on a one minute chart? What a joke. It all looks so impressive being so masterful staying with the moves all the way to the end, doesn't it? I must be a moron just going for $200 once or twice a day. And using nothing more than a Bollinger Band - I must be insane!
The truth is folks that trading is SIMPLE. What's hard is doing what's simple. What's hard is executing it with ruthless efficiency. What's hard is doing nothing. God knows how many times in the past I stared at four indicators thinking I've got it mastered. Talk about room for interpretation! The big money is made on the big moves. As for a stupid one minute chart with "volume": my ass!! The big moves happen in the ES once or twice a day. You don't need to be Einstein to see that. Just sit 6 ft back from your screen looking at a 15 minute chart. It's right in front of you.
These guys are just a distraction from the task of making money. They like to stroke each other and spout philosophical nonsense. Jack Hershey? 60 sceonds of reading your stuff and I'm fast asleep on my desk. Best cure for insomnia ever.
The danger here is that normal people will now lose the great pearls of wisdom on page 24. So go back and look at it again. Meanwhile, please can the VD traders start a new thread. Maybe call it the "VD mutual admiration society". Real traders are best staying away.
Breakout, you wanna know what's sad about this? What's sad is that you would have to rely on someone else to trade my ass into the ground. What about YOU? Why don't you trade my ass into the gound? Could it be because you are a failed trader who likes to hang around and quote what he thinks are "gurus" to make himself feel better?
80-100 trades a day is bloody nonsense. Maybe one person in a billion can make money that way. A hell of a lot more people can make money by implementing my suggestions on page 24.
I guess I'll never enter your guru leagues, because I'm too much of a simpleton. Oh dear, what a shame! Some of us are real traders who actually make money. I don't expect you'd understand what that means. So why don't you run along and ask Daddy Jack for some help - I'm sure he's got a nice bedtime story to calm your jangled nerves. He sure as hell puts me to sleep.
GUYS, GUYS, GUYS.....
let's not forget there are virtually unlimited ways to trade. just because you found something that works and someone else has a different style, it doesn't mean what they do doesn't work.
that said, SOME STYLES ARE DEFINITELY MORE EFFICIENT. SOME STYLES ARE BIGGER MONEY MAKERS..... PEOPLE NEED TO FIND SOMETHING THAT FITS THEM THE BEST.
I AM NOT NITRO.... I WILL NEVER SCALP LIKE LIGHTNING...BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN HE CAN'T BE MAKING MONEY....
anyway, good thread, though..
let's not forget there are virtually unlimited ways to trade. just because you found something that works and someone else has a different style, it doesn't mean what they do doesn't work.
that said, SOME STYLES ARE DEFINITELY MORE EFFICIENT. SOME STYLES ARE BIGGER MONEY MAKERS..... PEOPLE NEED TO FIND SOMETHING THAT FITS THEM THE BEST.
I AM NOT NITRO.... I WILL NEVER SCALP LIKE LIGHTNING...BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN HE CAN'T BE MAKING MONEY....
anyway, good thread, though..
are you aware that the middle BB line (basis) IS just a simple moving average?
if you have a 20 "length" BB setting, the basis will be a 20 period simple moving average.
yes, i did notice that you said you use an adaptive MA instead of a simple MA, so yes, your middle line will be a little different.
i'd like to know why you use an adaptive MA instead of the BB basis line? have you tried just using the basis BB line instead of the adaptive MA?
Well also remember I said that these VDU signals occured in line with signals that I was already using and helped confirmed the change in direction I was looking for or gave me a heads up to be prepared for POSSIBLE action around possible pivot areas. Like everything it does not work 100% of the time. I was looking for bars on the 1 minute time frame with volume under 200 contracts for the minute. Here are the ones I saw that lined up with what I was already anticipating or watching. I just gave possible high to low point moves but realize you can't get the whole amount usually.
9:59 5 points, 12:40 3 points, 13:47 3 points.
Truthfully I checked out the MACD and Stochastics but saw that I was getting in the moves before the those signals occured anyway so they did not mix well with what I was already doing. The thing was that I was not closed minded and looked at them for myself. If I could find away to use them that helped improve upon what I am looking at then I would most definitely use them.
Simtrader you seem fairly closed minded. I personally know traders that double your points per day. However what they do will not work for everyone just as your trading style is not the end all be all trading style either. However I appreciate you sharing what you do. I will probably take a look at it and see if there is anything there that fits what I am already doing. I just try to pick up pieces from here and there and build my own style. I will look at anything that will eventually improve my results, regardless of what it is. Unfortunately I don't find many things that add to the bottom line so I disgard them.
Quote from Simtrader:
THERE IS SOME SHITE DISCUSSED HERE! I see that we've got the 2 tick newbies out in force alongside the academics who don't even trade. Exellent BS to waste your time.
First off: trading Breakouts is the ONLY way to trade. All you buggers looking for the pullback are wasting your time. You just want to feel clever catching the turn. I bet you donât make any money. If itâs real, it ainât pulling back, Jack. As for the buggers who trade with 2-4 tick stop-losses: donât make me laugh!
You wanna make money? You gotta buy high (the higher the better) and sell even higher. You gotta sell at the bottom and buy even lower. The idea is the catch the momentum moves. Let everyone else scrap over the middle shit. And you gotta aim for enough profit to make it worthwhile. $200 a contract in the ES or forget it. You should attempt this only once (or max) twice a day. If you want to make more than $200, trade more contracts not more signals. The key is to know which breakouts. Hereâs the jist (not nec all my fine tuning):
5 min chart, standard Bollinger Bands with middle line a simple Mov Avg in place of the middle Boll line. Nothing else needed.
Buy Signal:
Wait for a bar whose high is sticking above the top Bollinger line and whose mov avg line is up compared to the last bar. Wait for a minimum of one bar that has a lower high (to generate a pivot high), and also wait for a bar whose low is lower than the pivot high bar. This can happen within 1 bar or 15 bars. I usually prefer to wait at least 2 bars after the bar high in order to create a proper pivot (this is discretionary). Buy 1 tick above the pivot high on a breakout. Sell automatically for $200 profit. Trail the stop behind any strong up bar (open at bottom, close at top, decent range) otherwise keep it $150-$200 away or behind a pivot low. Reverse logic for sells.
Now hereâs the key. Look for ONLY one trade from 09:40 â 11:30 EST and only one trade from 20:00 â 22:15 EST. Do not trade any other hours or any other signals no matter what. This is what is known as having patience and discipline. Make your $200 in the morning then piss off until the last 2 hours (or donât come back at all). Will you miss some moves in the middle of the day? Yes you will. The aim is not to be a clever arse. The aim is to make money by focusing on strong momentum moves. Let everyone else tear each otherâs hair out in the middle hours - while you go to the gym. You wanna trade when the institutions come into the market and drive it. That means the first two hours and the last two hours. It helps retain focus.
Best tip of all:
Apply the first trade to the DAX because you can make a shite load more money. Most Yankee Doodles donât even realise that the DAX and ESTX50 markets trade until 14:00 EST. Many yanks have probably never even heard of "Eurex" the worlds biggest (& 100% electronic) futures exchange. Yet these two symbols are fabulous markets to daytrade. Way better than ES and NQ. Theyâre electonic, liquid, and available through your existing US broker (if not, move your account). They are less choppy and less subject to false breakouts. DAX is for the big boys: it's a big grizzly bear (with c. 100,000 daily volume). ESTX50 (c. 500,000 daily volume) is the perfect ES substitute i.e. it moves about the same money. You don't have to live in Europe to trade these markets from 09:40 - 11:30 EST. Just make sure you collect the data overnight.
June 3rd attached: a day when neither target was hit in the ES. [Anyone can handpick a day to show how great their idea is]. I chose this day to show what happens in a less than perfect scenario. You still made money in the ES, but you would have made much more money taking the same signals in the DAX or ESTX50 because those targets WERE hit.
Final tip: use IB as your broker and run www.ninjatrader.com to manage your orders. You can get Eurex quotes from IB for free and pair it up with cheap charting software like SierraChart (so you can see what I'm talking about in the DAX & ESTX50 without sploshing dosh). And no I'm not the developer of NinjaTrader. It's just a kick-ass order entry program. Kind of like Bracket-Trader on steroids.
Now let's go back to the tick traders and academics for some more BS. After all, I've got so much free time between my trades to laugh at their nonsense
Geeh, you're fucked up, what's your problem?
My problem is that I don't suffer fools gladly. Especially when they are leading people astray. Do you wanna make money or just waste time learning about 1 minute trading from a 21 year old who's been at it for 7 days and likes to admire Greenspan as his hero trader? If it's the former, then try reading page 24, & maybe you'll learn something. Cos it sure as hell is full of practical hands-on advice which is a rarity around here.