Quote from Magna:
Thanks for your answers and the chart. I must be misunderstanding something regarding the MACD, so please correct me. Using your settings of 5,13,6 here are my MACD histogram readings this morning starting with the 9:35 bar (5m chart):
9:35 bar (closes at 9:40): -0.20
9:40 bar (closes at 9:45): -0.20
9:45 bar (closes at 9:50): -0.03
9:50 bar (closes at 9:55): -0.02
9:55 bar (closes at 10:00): -0.02
10:00 bar (closes at 10:05): .42
As you specify +/-.40 (respectively for longs/shorts) I don't see how a beginning would have entered a rocket at sync or even by 10am. The earliest I see would be when the 10:00 bar closes at 10:05 (producing the MACD reading of .42), which of course is just after the huge spike-up due to the ISM Services report today at 10:00am.
****I see all the items blending on the 10am BO. The beginners can count on going through a transition as they begin to make money. I want them to be focussed as they monitor. Today that was a nice entry. As any level person watches he sync and is keeping a stop log, they get into the grove. Some one commented on just the price alone would give you a 14 point shot and he is a rookie. In the am we are seeing best pace of the day and as the indicator signals fall in line and our account is larger each day, we tend to be confident enough to make more money. We combine being correct and making money as a pleasant orientation.
The nicest one to watch before announcements is a "greenspan" on the DJXX. A standard "Greenspan" is 150 points there. Mentoring through those is a delight because you get at least three trades per announcement.
And towards the end of the day:
15:10 bar (closes at 15:15): .12
15:15 bar (closes at 15:20): .24
15:20 bar (closes at 15:25): .28
15:25 bar (closes at 15:30): .51
Again, it wouldn't be til the completion of the 15:25 bar at 15:30 that the MACD would meet your minimum requirement.
*** looks like it to me. And I hope most beginners who have atleast doubled their initial capital in the last 2 months are able to see that rocket fairly well.
Two questions come to mind:
1. Are you suggesting that a beginner ignore MACD if Stoch and Vol meet the requirements?
*** I would suggest that they make money. I want them to ease into expert trading before the too distant future. The monitoring is there to build logs, follow the market, get in a groove. Each day they will do better. They will be dropping myths too and clearing out stuff. Nailing a run today of a bunch of points instills in a person the fact that they can deal with value and the human factors. I think everyone here in the last several days has begun to see the market stall points on VDU and they see how their is an impact after that. Formation endings are neat. You begin to make money right after each one ends.
2. Even if the MACD had been .40+ prior to 10:00am this morning, would you recommend waiting for gov't reports (which almost always cause spiking and strong moves) or simply jump on board early and hope (ugh...) for favorable reports.
**** Bracket and smile. Almost all experts watch the sync and set up on the centering. We do not care which way the day's H/L expands. just climb on and look for the flaws in the sequences. When a flaw occurs go into "change" mode and drop "continuation" mode. as you trade through "change" with reversal strategy you are one up on scapers who just pop in and out. Most of the time you are facing scapers with an opposite action. If you move to an offset orientation you are "anticipating" them.
their are some advantages out there for sure. You are one up using "change" against a guy who drags alone with only a "continuation" strategy. Especially when continuation ends. By offsetting him you often are raking it in during his whipsaw looser periods. You can also bracket guys who are missing :failure" signals.
ET doesn't have threads where guys doing one approach are facing guys doing other stuff. In Misc. invest. futures there are occassions when average vendors are idling along with mediocre stuff and it is easy to get opposite them and compare money velocities.
Thanks again.
how to manage false breakouts on NQ ES
- Thread starter pawpaw
- Start date
Jack, to give an analogy, you are the guy who pulls up alongside the guy thinking he's driving the souped up car, yet outruns him;
you are wise from your years of survivorship in the markets and I thank you for imparting that wisdom, and though I can't understand some of your "Yoda"-speak, I want you to know, for now, that your sharing and nurturing nature is appreciated, if not only because of its rarity.
you are wise from your years of survivorship in the markets and I thank you for imparting that wisdom, and though I can't understand some of your "Yoda"-speak, I want you to know, for now, that your sharing and nurturing nature is appreciated, if not only because of its rarity.
Thanks again, jack - nothing better than having "Yoda" interpret my charts correctly.
Some dumb questions:
1. Can somebody tell me what FTP stands for? I know from the chart that its a congestion.
2. Where do you "bracket"? (Hmmm, I like that term) At the 10 am VDU? This means not having a directional bias at the point of VDU, correct? (At least I know what VDU stands for right now)
pretzel
Let's not get overly carried away... Tick, trin, volume can be very successfully used via their divergences with the price. This is the best way to employ them and the most reliable one. Tick can hardly be used as a leading indicator and I know of no leading indicator for futures, anyway. Perhaps the premium, but I doubt it.
On the other hand if you think that the price is enough as an indicator of market action then you obviously forgot the title of this thread which, to recall, is how to manage false breakouts. Yes, the price can be misleading too, which is why this thread has been around for a few days by now.
Jack, you wrote, "double the contracts ... and reverse the trend hold "
Does this mean, if I own 500 shares of IBM and sell them when the trend reverses, that I should exit/reverse by entering a sell for 1000 shares? If it does, besides saving the base commission, isn't this sort of thing illegal or frowned upon or some such thing as the additional 500 share order isn't marked as a short?
Does this mean, if I own 500 shares of IBM and sell them when the trend reverses, that I should exit/reverse by entering a sell for 1000 shares? If it does, besides saving the base commission, isn't this sort of thing illegal or frowned upon or some such thing as the additional 500 share order isn't marked as a short?
See Below at the ***'s
******Impending news is always worth a bracket set up and always, eeven though you may be using expert orientation, set up "outside" scalping. We can count on public reaction for sure. We do not have to bet on the direction.
Next after the reaction the volume will not sustain the reaction so we go into change mode and do a reversal on the poop out.
As that interval passes, we prepare for a damping period to melt back into he former (before news market action) . this damping will appear as a price signal on the old preannouncement trend action. For graphic people you can extend the prior channel lines through the news BO and reaction -period.
stocks and contracts has a few twists. You can follow the lead of your brokers on this in each kind of market.
I had a fairly detailed call with my equities team because of the next few days coming up. I am going to be very active and I want them on the same page. I have voice recognition and many accounts. I want them to have the account #'s at hand and execute without me doing the blah lbah. To that end I have already said what kind of orders and which people will tell whom what to do. I have to bleed my fills into the market.
To nail a reversal on IBM with a margin account is a straight forward deal. I would be unable to reverse on my equity positions smoothly for practical reasons. It would turn out to be a piece by piece thing.
For the ES which is what this thread is about mostly, whether or not you use voice or keying in, you can execute reversals with a doubling down on contracts.
Actually several people here can tell you what a daily 11:00 pm evening report (email) on several trades looks like. It is usually a mess on first glance. But by using markers you can get yourself straight.