how to manage false breakouts on NQ ES

Quote from jack hershey:



See attached to add some detail.
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I am not feeling badly when someone says I am trying to say something. actually, I am saying something.

these notes here on the gif are worth some comment.

The chart is someone else's. What I am saying to you makes money. for someone to post a chart to annotate me is very very helpful and super duper and great.

The fact that I can just point out some stuff to aid and be precise (the VDU thing, for example) just clarifies.

Make a particular note: Almost all the way across this chart you have a money maiking velocity and the decision points were two VDU's and you used the "change" market tool called reversing.

To save band width I could have said days ago: reverse on VDU for failures to BO.

Now pages of detail make it possible for a sane guy who wants to be a millionaire, to read behind five words and two abreviations.

If you do this for failure to BO, you will take on every BO from now on. If there is no failure just make money and exit. You exit at the end of the trade for no failure. You do not reverse for BO's that do not fail. See I am making you a millionaire once again..

Have a pleasant day.
 

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Quote from jack hershey:



See attached to add some detail.
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Thanks for all your great posts, I have been following your posts on other threads as well.

I have just a couple of questions about the last BO chart you posted. I am rather new to your ideas, but I find them very insightfull.

1. Does VDU mean Volume Dry Up, silly question i am sure

2. Where you point out the VDU just prior to the BO on the last chart, you mention "one bar congestion and one bar exit", could you please clearify what you mean by that?

3. Where exactly would be the point at which you would reverse course and enter short for the false BO retracement

Thanks in advance.

Also, I noticed your idea about a place to post potential BO's and I think it is a great idea. What about even starting a thread on here to post them?
 
Quote from Breakout:



Well, we appreciate that Jack. You mean it takes Jack
Hershey 20 trades just to make $900,000. I figured for
a trader of your caliber it would only take about 5 trades...hehe

Just kidding, and thanks for your posts. :D
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I meant partial fills going into the position and partial sells going out. I try to not exceed the blocks going through the T &S and to keep my participation below 10% of cummulative daily volume up to 100,000 shares which is my hold cap on shares in the 30 dollar range. It was just one trade for Gary and for me. I netted 17 pts on the 100k shares.
 
OOOhhh, Jack

Wahhh, the best trader in the world. When it comes to theory, you are unbeatable.

But tell me about MONEY, since you know so much...
 
Quote from Osiris:



Thanks for all your great posts, I have been following your posts on other threads as well.

I have just a couple of questions about the last BO chart you posted. I am rather new to your ideas, but I find them very insightfull.

1. Does VDU mean Volume Dry Up, silly question i am sure

******* Very Dry Up. this is less than the noise volume. it is a people stalemante. The potential traders are not trading. almost no volume

On the attached see time at 11:19 and 11:41 they are short red bars that show total volume for each of theose minutes. This is low low volume for a minute.

2. Where you point out the VDU just prior to the BO on the last chart, you mention "one bar congestion and one bar exit", could you please clearify what you mean by that?

The VDU bar inthe congestion was at 11:19. Make a giant note: This is the centering price value of the congestion. i, e., it is the price in the middle of a time when the market is dead for a minute. This is the center of life at that minute. This is the "one bar of congestion (price wise and volume wise to key off of)

You can see by my name that I am an authority on bars. It was my nick name right after i broke my teeth and they stopped calling me "bugs"

One bar exit" refers to the reversal bar. A revedersal is an exit and an extry using twice the hold contracts. You complete a transaction and start a second one simultaneouslt with a C&R on the ticket you are holding.

3. Where exactly would be the point at which you would reverse course and enter short for the false BO retracement

14:41 is the time the profit is about 2 1/2 points (969.0 to about 971.2 meaning 2 quarters above 971.0. you hold the short until off the page at least 964 and running. That is another 7 1/2 points. A ten point money velocity over 4 hours for 20 contracts is a good starting point for a new trader.

Thanks in advance.

Also, I noticed your idea about a place to post potential BO's and I think it is a great idea. What about even starting a thread on here to post them?

*** I am new here. I don't think people here are used to having lists of potential buys every day. I asked because if i poted say two a day for a month, i thought people could catch on to something. It is important for beginners to make money all the time and skip the tuition of farting around like they do here.

the person i asked is a big timer here; I thought he could give me some direction. A turkey gave me a LOL... he is a typical turkey here. There is a large flock of them. The chicken population is stuck in the wet behind the ears part of the coup too.

When the scalpers show us how to pull down 2 1/2 points an hour, I will goose them up quite a bit from that performance too. You can see here that they do not know of the limitations on contract volume they are facing as yet. I will focus on how to get the volume they need using an offset scalping technique. First I think we ought to knock off some bucks here for a while.

If you noticed on HOV I used the VDU to go out right during the double top peak there. maybe the turkey TM will catch my points some day. He certainly has a hardon about "his" points and no one elses. That exit was pure class and excellence.
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Thanks for your Q's they are terrific and improtant and clarifying in many ways.
 
Quote from berga:

OOOhhh, Jack

Wahhh, the best trader in the world. When it comes to theory, you are unbeatable.

But tell me about MONEY, since you know so much...
More...

My best single day to date was a net of 1.7 million dollars. it involved 11 accounts most of which I traded for the benfit of others who contribute time (weekly) to the benfit of others who are in need and some handicapped people in a family that takes care of it's own. My best beginner for six months averaged 11.1% on trades of 6.6 days average duration.

I am just and older amateur who trades under NFA 208 E part a.

I do not know very much compared to professional people who have very restrictive handicaps for making money. I have several acquaintances in the big leagues however.

Your post is kind of not too important as things go. One thing you can begin to pay attention to is this: I post in response to others who give me the oppotunity to comment on their concerns. I feel a person can often define a need that is important to a lot of people. That's why I am responding to you as well.

You have a poor dad. It is not your fault. Not a good idea for you to postpone making some money. If you do, then you will not be posting to me this way.

The series of posts I made here do get to you in one way. You get it that I can post on a topic and use other people's illustrations to ace the situatio to a tee. What I say is simple, doable and it make a lot of money per hour relative to the maximum potential.

You do not compete with others. You are not main stream anything anywhere as yet. Staying in a safe survival modus by doing what you do doesn't distinguish you in any way. You can give up the safety of your world and get with it instead.

As a person, you have a long ways to go to get to a place where you do not have the need to behave the way you do. Lowering the risk to take a step will come from reading this. You can do something for ET to help out.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

...reverse on VDU for failures to BO.... If you do this for failure to BO, you will take on every BO from now on. If there is no failure just make money and exit. You exit at the end of the trade for no failure. You do not reverse for BO's that do not fail.
More...
Thanks for the chart with annotation, Jack. Even though your strategies do not include playing the reversals for beginners, I am getting the feeling that it's a downright critical part that can't be ignored at any level, and a method that's very dear to your heart. Rocket bo's fail alot and fail often, in fact the overwhelming majority of them fail (like today, there were no successful rockets). The concept of washing is essential, but the reality is that they often fail soonafter entry making it close to impossible to truly wash, and normally the loss is a point here, a couple of points there. Sure, the good rockets (like yesterday's short) come to play and you pick up 6-8 pts, but that barely evens out all the losing washes. The key, or next step shall I say, seems to clearly be the reversals as that gets you in early and profits from all the failed rockets.

A question regarding entry on the reversal today. From your chart you show around 11:44, or the time of the VDU. But if you exit the rocket and enter short there, the market immediately goes against you and rises on some strong volume bars. Not encouraging. After the fact, of course, it doesn't matter because it starts collapsing around 11:55. But in the meantime what makes you hold on as it's going against you on nice volume, making a higher high. Or is 11:44 too early to reverse the trade and there's a better (safer?) later entry on the short. Thanks.
 
Nice post berga, your very first on ET and already you are disrespectful and rude. Good way to start out, great contribution to the board. :confused: I look forward to your forthcoming gems.... :mad:
 
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