Quote from riskfreetrading:
I know what you mean, but I think the reason is that people do not know why such things work. In your case you follow it probably because you know it worked for you (proof of the pudding is in the eating), but for someone else who does not see it the way you see it, he will never follow it consistently. He needs proof (not trading proof, but another proof). There is one for the stocks you suggest. It is just not provided/understood.
Learning to trade is harder than swimming. First the person has no reason to trust that winning in trading is possible (he does not see others making it, he has just words). Once he sees it (like swimming), he still needs to believe that there are fundamental laws that make it work. These laws are usually not known to the new trader, and he does not know what to look for (the thread poster is an example). It is not his fault. Trader do not write their laws and why they work. Then the new trader has to internalized the laws, and deeply understand them. Finally he has to apply them consistently. So it is long process, and it needs many things to work right for the whole thing to work right.
Most new guys make trading so complicated, because they don't know any better. The problem is they need a strong base, or starting point. I just provided them that in an incredibly simple statement.
"ONLY buy strong stocks, ONLY sell weak stocks."
Do I ever do countertrend trading? Yeah every day, but I can tell you it's 2-3X harder then trend trading and about half as profitable. As a new trader they should forget the idea completely. In fact they should ban themselves from it.
Forget the proof. Take the idea and trade it small for a week. If you (anyone reading this) aren't profitable yet then what's the harm? Don't try to backtest, just trade it small. I can't stand backtesters. You don't learn to trade that way.
Take all the indicators off of your charts except volume. Forget T&S, LII, Open Book, ticks, candles etc. Forget anything else you think you know, and just try it. And use charts, lots of them.
I know from reading this board for ten years that nobody will actually do this, but I was compelled to write it anyway.
