How to know if my edge is going away?

[virtusa]

It has been said if you can't define your edge you don't have one.

Without giving your edge away what process do you use to define it?

Even if you can define your edge, you still don't know if and when it will work. The simple reason is that you never know how the market will behave in future and how long it will behave like that.

The edge can disappear and later appear again as market conditions change.

 

[deaddog]

Even if you can define your edge, you still don't know if and when it will work. The simple reason is that you never know how the market will behave in future and how long it will behave like that.

The edge can disappear and later appear again as market conditions change.

It depends on how you define your edge. A set-up is only a small part of your edge. A set-up can stop working but if the other components of your edge, money management, trading strategy, position sizing & discipline etc are still in place you can stay in the game.

 

[sonoma]

Suppose that I have a long-only strategy with an edge. Any thoughts of how I can know when my edge is fading?

Do you have a benchmark you're using for tracking?

 

[virtusa]

It depends on how you define your edge.

The edge is the totality of all tools and parameters that you use. If one thing does not work anymore, the edge is gone, or replaced by a handicapped less performing edge.

 

[deaddog]

The edge is the totality of all tools and parameters that you use. If one thing does not work anymore, the edge is gone, or replaced by a handicapped less performing edge.

That's probably true. I'm a momentum swing trader for lack of a better description. When the momentum stops, I'm out of the market. I feel that having the discipline to stay out of the market is part of my edge. When momentum returns which it eventually will I'll get back in. Over the long term I outperform my benchmark. I don't feel that my edge has stopped working just because I'm on the side-lines, rather that it is working because I'm not losing capital as the market declines.

 

[murray t turtle]

Suppose that I have a long-only strategy with an edge. Any thoughts of how I can know when my edge is fading?

%%
SEPT sells some times ;
200daymoving average...............................................................................

 

[murray t turtle]

Don't worry, you'll know.

Signed,

Guy who has religiously followed his trading system for that last 8 months and hasn't made a dime over that period.

%%
WOW;
sounds like that last line never had an edge.....................................

 

[Raheel Shaikh]

Suppose that I have a long-only strategy with an edge. Any thoughts of how I can know when my edge is fading?

At a point you will see yourself executing as per your plan but the win rate and the % is still going down over a period of time that the last point of it, which is like hitting the roof
another thing that you can do along side when trading the market is refining the edge constantly
keep tweaking it to stay longer and consistent in the game

 

[smcoder]

 

[davidrichard]

This is the most common problem faced by almost every trader. Market conditions keep on changing and edges come and go all the time. The same trading strategy with an edge won’t work for long. The best way to analyse when your edge is not working is to monitor your win-loss ratio.