How to Kill Bulls: Watch Me Do it in Real-time

It is true that the out of west world has changed fundamentally in attitude, economy, etc. I think the analysis I did is among the westen world (US vs. Europe), which one will have the upper hand in terms of currency. So, I think the question is then not whether the US will or will not be back to the area of the 90s, but will it be better off than europe? Europe is aging and fragmented, and does not have the lands and innovation as well as the usa. I would not sell short the USA easily vs europe.

That is why I think EUR/USD's likely path is down. In any case, we trade on technicals, and one should not have a static view of the world.

The balance would be: asian (where the new consumer to be aquired will be), Arabs/muslim (Oil and ambition), America as a maestro (using a stick as director of orchestra and not as man who punishes), South american (aspiring for better future and walking on its feet), and Europe and Japan (old men with glorious past to talk about with the hope of having others listen to them), Africa (it can never be worse than the past), and Russia (a bit of everything)
 
Well I never thought I'd find myself agreeing with Risky!

I'm sticking to my plan from a month ago, maybe buy Usd/Chf instead because the interest costs are less but in essence I believe the EZ isn't in much better shape than the US with some of the same problems, they just haven't fully realized it yet. This won't be a 15 min trade, Q4 at the earliest before it sees any reasonable profit I expect and I'll average into it....if the plan comes right that is!

The ECB are already starting to sound dovish, France and Germany business and consumer confidence number are coming out worse than expected, growth is slowing, inflation is coming under control, the conditions seem right for rate cuts.

Both economies are in 'challenging' times, the Fed have already acted (how effective it will be is debatable) and now I believe it's the ECB's turn, they can't afford to sit on the fence forever or they risk getting too far behind the curve.

As Risky says, it's not so much a case of what actually happens, it's more a case of what the futures market perceives and prices-in which will determine Eur/Usd direction. 'Buy the rumour, Sell the fact'?

My 2c for what it's worth, I'm no economist :)
 
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