How to find an edge ?

SimpleMeLike said:
Hello Sekiyo,

You do not know what a trading edge means or how to quantify it.

So why do you care about trading edge, if you do not know how to quantify a trading edge?
More...

I am not sure what you mean …
But the formula is pretty simple and I already gave it away.

It’s the kelly criterion:
(p*b-q)/b

p is p(win), q is 1-p and b is reward/risk
This tells you the maximum bet size.

Now it’s up to you to quantify your edge.
 
Sekiyo said:
I am not sure what you mean …
But the formula is pretty simple and I already gave it away.

It’s the kelly criterion:
(p*b-q)/b

p is p(win), q is 1-p and b is reward/risk
This tells you the maximum bet size.

Now it’s up to you to quantify your edge.
More...
Hello Sekiyo,

But, how you can be guaranteed and assured the trading edge based on your "kelly criterion" will make you rich or meet your personal trading goals in X years?

X mean the trader defined monetary goals to stop trading!

Perhaps, others like @MarkBrown or @Handle123 can comment or not comment at all and keep your secret to yourself. :)
 
Last edited:
I'm beginning to get the idea that people think edges are rare and difficult to find. Neither of these are true.
I assume most of this community are retail traders. In that case, you just need to ask what edge (or structural advantage) do I have versus others (think large accounts with professional managers)?
An obvious edge is a execution edge. You can buy/sell most securities without serious slippage. Large accounts have to work into and out of positions over time to avoid excess slippage. With this edge you can trade in shorter time frames than larger accounts. You can throw it away by trying to do arbitrage against automated program trading platforms, but for the most part this edge is unlikely to go away.
 
I could identify a good edge every time I take a dump - there are countless edges. If you cant find them your not looking hard enough or need more experience.

For me - an edge is an event that repeats often enough statistically wins more than half the time, and makes at least 5R on the wins.

Now finding an edge is the easy part, the harder part is executing it. Mindset and good risk/profit mgmt makes or breaks any potential edge.
 
Last edited:
acrary said:
I'm beginning to get the idea that people think edges are rare and difficult to find. Neither of these are true.
I assume most of this community are retail traders. In that case, you just need to ask what edge (or structural advantage) do I have versus others (think large accounts with professional managers)?
An obvious edge is a execution edge. You can buy/sell most securities without serious slippage. Large accounts have to work into and out of positions over time to avoid excess slippage. With this edge you can trade in shorter time frames than larger accounts. You can throw it away by trying to do arbitrage against automated program trading platforms, but for the most part this edge is unlikely to go away.
More...
Agree. Most talk of slippage and execution costs as some big issue. Only if one's edge is miniscule.
 
comagnum said:
I could identify a good edge every time I take a dump - there are countless edges. If you cant find them your not looking hard enough or need more experience.

In my book an edge is an event that repeats often enough, statistically wins more than half the time, and makes at least an avg of 5R on the wins.

Now finding an edge is the easy part, the harder part is executing it. Mindset and good risk/profit mgmt makes or breaks any potential edge.

When your risking $1 to make $5 you only need to be right 20% of the time to be profitable. You have the law of large numbers with you & no risk of ruin.
More...
Good Morning comagnum,

An edge to me is something I do not share with others.
 
You could give losing trades your best setup & they will still F it up and lose. They do it 1 time, lose & give up forever. You can't teach mindset.
 
SimpleMeLike said:
Good Morning Sekiyo,

Thank you, but you did not answer my question.

here is the question

1. Can please express or define or quantify how to know when an edge is found in your opinion?

In other words, how does a trader know when to bet/invest on a trading edge found or discovered.

Please quantify with numbers, not words!!
More...
That's probably one of those things that only time will tell. If after many months/years and many,many trades you are profitable,, well it appears you have found an edge. Of course there will always be a nagging thought in the back of your mind have I really found an edge or was it all just luck?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top