I would like to get familiar with the carry trade using the futures and i would like to have your help for understanding if I am doing something wrong.
Can you try follow this example with me?
Let's try to implement the carry trade between EUR and CHF
spot price: EUR.CHF 1.2077
Future prices of NYBOT EURO IN SWISS FRANC (RZ@NYBOT)
17/12/2012 1.208 Z2
18/03/2013 1.207 H3
17/06/2013 1.206 M3
16/09/2013 1.205 U3
Multiplayer 125000
Solution using the spot price:
1) convert 103,502.525 EUR in 125.000 CHF using the spot price
2) long U3 (the math is easier)
Case A wait settlement time (spot price 1.23)
A.1) U3 ---> +3,125 chf value in euro: 2,540.65
A.2) convert 125.000 chf in 101,626.016 EUR
A.3) profit = A.1+A.2 - Initial capital = 664.141 EUR
Case B wait settlement time (spot price 1.20)
B.1) U3 ---> -625.00 chf value in euro: -520.83
B.2) convert 125.000 chf in 104,166.667 EUR
B.3) profit = A.1+A.2 - Initial capital = 143.311 EUR
Case C wait settlement time (spot price 1.10)
C.1) U3 ---> -13,125.00 chf value in euro: -11,931.818
C.2) convert 125.000 chf in 113,636.364 EUR
C.3) profit = A.1+A.2 - Initial capital = -1,797.979 EUR
It looks like that i am making something wrong here ... can you help me figure out where the problem is?
Can you try follow this example with me?
Let's try to implement the carry trade between EUR and CHF
spot price: EUR.CHF 1.2077
Future prices of NYBOT EURO IN SWISS FRANC (RZ@NYBOT)
17/12/2012 1.208 Z2
18/03/2013 1.207 H3
17/06/2013 1.206 M3
16/09/2013 1.205 U3
Multiplayer 125000
Solution using the spot price:
1) convert 103,502.525 EUR in 125.000 CHF using the spot price
2) long U3 (the math is easier)
Case A wait settlement time (spot price 1.23)
A.1) U3 ---> +3,125 chf value in euro: 2,540.65
A.2) convert 125.000 chf in 101,626.016 EUR
A.3) profit = A.1+A.2 - Initial capital = 664.141 EUR
Case B wait settlement time (spot price 1.20)
B.1) U3 ---> -625.00 chf value in euro: -520.83
B.2) convert 125.000 chf in 104,166.667 EUR
B.3) profit = A.1+A.2 - Initial capital = 143.311 EUR
Case C wait settlement time (spot price 1.10)
C.1) U3 ---> -13,125.00 chf value in euro: -11,931.818
C.2) convert 125.000 chf in 113,636.364 EUR
C.3) profit = A.1+A.2 - Initial capital = -1,797.979 EUR
It looks like that i am making something wrong here ... can you help me figure out where the problem is?