So what do you claim to be more valuable than experience and probability?
How to develop decisiveness and quick reaction time?
- Thread starter rin4et
- Start date
Sorry, I don't understand your question.
My point is that you cannot tell "whether this opportunity will be a good one and should be taken or whether it's false and should be avoided"... except in retrospect.... and by then, it's too late to do it well.
"Go" just means odds are in your favor. Of course you play an uncertain game.
But you must be confident about your edge / process, and always apply your methodology with discipline. For example, if you get 10 Go, maybe 5 would be flat, 1 negative, 3 positive and 1 super positive. And if you lost, at least you respected your process / plan. At the end, this is a win
.CM
"Go" just means odds are in your favor. Of course you play an uncertain game.
But you must be confident about your edge / process, and always apply your methodology with discipline. For example, if you get 10 Go, maybe 5 would be flat, 1 negative, 3 positive and 1 super positive. And if you lost, at least you respected your process / plan. At the end, this is a win
CM
Absolutely agree.
What I disagree with is the assertion... "with experience, you can filter out the "go" from the "no go". If you could filter out the "good from the bad"... and as in your example... you would not have the "5 flat,1 negative"... those would be filtered out, and you wouldn't take them. (Hey, we'd all like to filter out the bad trades... who wouldn't? Reality... can't be done. We need to accept that and trade around it.)
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True, you can not tell the outcome. But experience, study and research will tell you what the probability of a successful outcome will be. And if that probability is high enough, the price movement will tell you if the entry should be made.
Partially correct.
What ain't?
Your determination of "probability of success is high enough" is subjective... and you use that to determine whether or not to take the trade.
We traders need to "be one with the river", if you get that reference.
By no means. The basics of price movement are dependable because they work in the vast majority of cases. Otherwise they would not qualify as the basics, would they? And many of us who do our own research to find additional edges perform actual counts covering hundreds of cases to determine the probability of the outcome being successful. So by no means is it subjective. It's calculated probability.
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Lemme say it this way... no matter how smart you think YOU are... you cannot determine in advance "which trade setups should be passed-up because they are not (in your mind) worth the risk".... You can't know that when it's time to do it well... only in retrospect.... by then, usually too late.
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