How to determine the strength of a trend
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Quote from Samson77:
I guess I better give back ALL this money then huh!
I didn't say it couldn't work for you. You have gotten used to trading in a complicated environment but it is more than evident that traders, as a whole, can not. The failure rate for traders is staggering and you only need to look at what they are being instructed to do to see why.
Oh, there is a "main" proponent? Well, then, he certainly speaks for everyone across the land, doesn't he?Quote from primemover:
spike,
i am merely quoting the main proponent of trend following. definately not a non believer. this was found on his site.
prime
As Bugs Bunny would say, "What a maroon." With that in mind, may I suggest that your next handle, when your current one invariably gets banned in due course, be primemaroon?
Hark! primemaroon/hanksurfer is quoting "research" (by Victor Neiderhoffer?) much the same way that Tome Cruise quotes the "research" of Scientology. Do you even have a basic grasp of what you are referring to? Have you ever actually studied statistics? Or are you merely mimicking someone else's personal bias as your own and this, then, is your own "research?" As the alleged proponent of science that you claim to be, you are invariably aware that statistics can be tortured to say just about anything you want it to say. And VN seems to be no slouch in this regard.
Please do yourself a favor and don't be such a VN toady.
To claim that trends do not exist is foolhardy and flies in the face of that which is in front of your face. To be upset because you cannot trade trends is understandable. Do try to distinguish between the two.Quote from primemover:
the first question is--- trends--do they exist??
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=46620&highlight=do+trends+exist
I posit that trends exist, whereas you, sir, are merely a figment of my imagination.
Thank you for acknowledgement of FACT of MY income
I have tried many different SIMPLE approaches like 1,2,3 set ups to simple pattern recognition techniques.
Personally I found these to be very ineffective over THE LONG RUN (sure they can work for a while).
I respect the fact that you believe the market is just UP, DOWN and Sideways and it's a simple matter of supply demand.
To each there own!
It is still my belief that the market is very simple in it's reaction BUT very complicated in the CAUSES of that reaction.
Thus the market is a sophisticated, complex environment and a true professional will have a deep understanding of the process and reaction.
Sorry but I know how the BIG boys make decisions and they do not decide to BUY/SELL based on some simple factor and they are the ones that MOVE markets, not market makers and floor traders.
New alias eh Surf?
Now, I really think Surf is an intelligent guy; I'm not going to get into a flame contest here. But I seem to recall us going around in circles on this topic a while back for about 100 pages or so. So as not to beat a "dead horse", I'll just re-state my main point from that discussion.
Trends exist. They have to, or else no one would trade. If there are no trends, there are no profits.
When you place your trade based on your models and Gann channels, you are making a bet that the trend will form or continue in the direction of your trade. Period. There is nothing else to it. You tend to be a trend predicter, not a follower. Regardless, the underlying concept is the same; get on board the trend.
As I recall, no one could satisfy your claims. Severl people (myself included) tried to offer very basic trend following systems based on historical results as proof. Surf wants numerical, quantitative proof. Basic correlation tests and the like will not show the trend. But other methods will show the existence of trends.
Anyway, that's all I will toss out on the subject of trend existence. We already spent too much time arguing this one.
Your P/L that is the best way.