How to determine the strength of a trend

primemover · Jul 4, 2005

Quote from Charlie Dow:

A Market is always trending on a per chart basis . . . it never isn't. Price that moves sideways is stagnant and Markets are almost never stagnant.

and you can always make a trend depending on how you condense or expand your chart. ever look at pure random prices on a standard 3,5,15 et al chart? random, meaning as this word relates to normal stock price distribution or move within a time frame. illusions, my friend, illusions.

prime

Charlie Dow · Jul 4, 2005

Quote from primemover:

any rudimentary time series analysis applied to stockmarket price series will clearly show that trends do not exist, except in hind sight. for example, the weekly changes in the sp futures during the 1990's is about -0.08. the correlation between daily changes is about -0.04 meaning the chances of a rise following 2,3,4 or more consecutive declines is approximately 10% higher than normal. based on this simple analysis, tradeable trends do not exist.

if you can present ANY studies of ANY stock price movement that shows trends when randomness is accounted for, please show me. i am open to learn something new.

the simplistic trend following mantra of buying new highs and selling new lows is exactly what the public does, and guess who gets caught holding the bag? i even saw one of the main proponets of trend following state that most traders dont buy the highs( or sell the lows) and this is why they fail. how convoluted can one get?? by definition, most traders buy new highs or they would not be new highs.......

prime

First, if you read exactly what I wrote and; digest it, think about it, apply it and test it, you will see that trends exist is real time. You make an arbitrary statement based on time analysis that (I assume) you personally have never tested which is understandable.

Research is time consuming and most traders have the patience of a knat. Trading takes enough patience let alone doing research as well . . . gee. What I offer is simple and easy to prove to yourself though time consuming. So, just due your due diligence and see for yourself.

Me showing you anything is a total waste of my time. If you don't see it and prove it to yourself, you will never believe it no matter how much energy or documentation I provide you.

As far as "buying new highs and selling new lows", to me that is as far from trend following as you can get. That is "break-out" trading and akin to suicide.

If you can't read price action you will never be able to follow or even believe that trends exist in real-time.

PitchBlack · Jul 4, 2005

Quote from Charlie Dow:

...

Me showing you anything is a total waste of my time. If you don't see it and prove it to yourself, you will never believe it no matter how much energy or documentation I provide you.

As far as "buying new highs and selling new lows", to me that is as far from trend following as you can get.....

Discussions with non-believers are a waste of time and energy.
The fact that they see trendfollowing as "buying the highs and selling the lows" is the ultimate proof that they don't have the slightest clue what a trend is.

Samson77 · Jul 4, 2005

Quote from toby:

....besides the common use of ADX??

Any idea?

Whats the common use of the ADX (settings)?

Just curious what others call common.

murray t turtle · Jul 4, 2005

Quote from spike500:/charlie Dow

Discussions with non-believers are a waste of time and energy.
The fact that they see trendfollowing as "buying the highs and selling the lows" is the ultimate proof that they don't have the slightest clue what a trend is.

=====================

Non -believer or what trendfollowers call a small sample;
thinks a ''primemove'' is measured or registered from some time in June-July4!!!!!!!.

primemover · Jul 4, 2005

Quote from spike500:

Discussions with non-believers are a waste of time and energy.
The fact that they see trendfollowing as "buying the highs and selling the lows" is the ultimate proof that they don't have the slightest clue what a trend is.

spike,

i am merely quoting the main proponent of trend following. definately not a non believer. this was found on his site.

prime

primemover · Jul 4, 2005

Quote from murray t turtle:

=====================

Non -believer or what trendfollowers call a small sample;
thinks a ''primemove'' is measured or registered from some time in June-July4!!!!!!!.

John Merchant · Jul 4, 2005

This thread reaffirms my faith in ET. Please tell us all, what instruments do you trade? Trading NQ is getting to be too hard. I need simpler competition.

EchoTrader · Jul 4, 2005

Quote from toby:

....besides the common use of ADX??

Any idea?

Believe it or not ... the "trend" is in the eye of the beholder.

Besides, the "Trend" is a very fragile thing. And it also depends on which time-frame you're looking at.

The Trend is more important to position traderz, and to an extent, day-traderz, not so much to scalperz.

Work on set-ups.

ET

Nana Trader · Jul 4, 2005

Quote from version77:

Well, at least we know what Nana Trader is doing up at this late hour...

That was a joke, i way trying to tell that there
is no way to determine the strenght of a trend.

You never know when it happens, You strategy have
to tell you to be in a trade or not in a trade, it's all
about what are odds of catching a trend.