How to choose the right system for the current market?

Quote from malaka56:

when calculating correlation coefficients, why do you calculate it off the logs? I have heard it is something to do with taking out the "drift" that occurs over time, but if you could elaborate, I would be grateful. Thanks. [/B]

I use log returns because I'm looking for a symmetric distribution... price alone is unstable and meaningless for correlation (which depends on standard deviation). The calculation for log returns is simple:

r = log10(close1 / close2)

You can then apply this to individual securities or an entire system, and compare statistical measures (e.g., mean, std dev, skewness, kurtosis, variance). Excess kurtosis means a fat tail distribution, and greater risk. Positive skew means a tail that extends to positive values, meaning a greater chance of large returns. and so forth...

To calculate a correlation between systems/securities, you can put the daily log returns in Excel and use PEARSON(logReturnsSystemA, logReturnsSystemB).
 

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