How to calculate success rate of our trading strategy?

If you are able to identify a trend early you will be ahead of most market participants.

A trend will be easy to spot once it is formed and confirmed, but to spot it early that is a different matter. That different that I doubt that you will be able to do it.

When I mean you I mean everyone. There are countless papers about trend forecasting and most of them are public just because they fail to be accurate. That is a extremely difficult task to achieve.
 
Drawdown Addict said:
If you are able to identify a trend early you will be ahead of most market participants.

A trend will be easy to spot once it is formed and confirmed, but to spot it early that is a different matter. That different that I doubt that you will be able to do it.

When I mean you I mean everyone. There are countless papers about trend forecasting and most of them are public just because they fail to be accurate. That is a extremely difficult task to achieve.
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First of all thanks for sharing your view which also happens to be most popular view of traders.

I identify early trend based on two aspects:
1. Market opening OR trend reversal
2. Early support/resistance

My approach is simple and clear.

From my experience I learned simple and clear steps makes things work better.
 
TheDawn said:
How to calculate success rate of our trading strategy?

- Number of profitable trades / Total number of trades undertaken? Am I reading this question correctly???
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The topic I am presenting here is a broad statistical analysis of the general strategy "trade with the trend".
 
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murray t turtle said:
%%
I'll watch for that pattern, sometimes charts can very misleading.
Don Bright Daytrading warned of\ most every shipwreck\ is with a chart @/bottom of sea.
LOL so true. :D:D
WITH a 50-77 year line chart of SPY[or S+P500];
looks like 2000-2002 bear is about 10x worse than 1973-74.
WHY ??Its the scale of the chart + the red numbers prove it . I hate to admit that because i like charts:caution::caution: Only about 1% difference in those 2 bear markets ; unless one was dumb enough to go all in ''early'':D:D
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I understand "early" is a bit vague. Here is my explanation...

I identify early trend based on two aspects:
1. Market opening OR trend reversal
2. Early support/resistance

My approach is simple and clear.

From my experience I learned simple and clear steps makes things work better.
 
rb7 said:
Do you have statistics to support that claim, or is it just an hypothesis?
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I understand your question is "Do you have data to support your claim"

I am presenting a broad statistical analysis of the general strategy "trade with the trend".
 
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SunTrader said:
Now all you need is a 3-sided coin to just keep flipping to determine whether to stay in trade after you've done the easy part o_O identifying a trend early on while at the same effin time also avoiding extreme market conditions.

Success rate alone <> probabilities.
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Identifying the trend early is not easy part but a disciplined part

I identify early trend based on two aspects:
1. Market opening OR trend reversal
2. Early support/resistance

My approach is simple and clear.

From my experience I learned simple and clear steps makes things work better.
 
Drawdown Addict said:
The art of copy-pasting replies! That doesn't go well with the ones that read the whole thread.
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Sometimes different questions leads to same answer. I just responded with common sense. And of course i cannot make everyone happy.

Simple and clear steps is my philosophy. So copy paste comes as a side effect with my responses.

And yes trading is both art and science. Art is creativity. It needs creative visualisation to see the big picture of trading as a business skill.

Business skill is a blend of intelligence (IQ) and emotional intelligence (EQ). Business mindset means healthy relationship with money. Ofcourse MBA is not mandatory for business success.

It is speculated that 98% of traders loose money, probably because of lack of business skill or in other words throwing away money in the name of investment which is definitely not a healthy relationship with money.

After a decade of trading experience i realised that i need to improve my relationship with money. This thread is my reflection/wisdom on how to respect our investment while trading. This approach of early detection of trend reduces the frequency of stop loss hits. I call it respecting our investment.

Probably only 2% of traders may see/appreciate what i am sharing here. I am wondering what percentage of traders are in transition from 98% crowd to 2% club? Because i am one of those who completed the transition.

The bottom line is trading is a business skill and definitely not a gambling skill. Majority of traders have gambling mindset which is very dangerous to their investment. And i cannot expect gamblers to respect my business point of view. Right?
 
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rajesheck said:
Probably only 2% of traders may see/appreciate what i am sharing here. I am wondering what percentage of traders are in transition from 98% crowd to 2% club? Because i am one of those who completed the transition.

The bottom line is trading is a business skill and definitely not a gambling skill. Majority of traders have gambling mindset which is very dangerous to their investment. And i cannot expect gamblers to respect my business point of view. Right?
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ok i declare this thread officially DEAD.... any post after this is just wasting time.
 
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