How to avoid being one of the 90% of small traders lose

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I made great coin on the move up into March 2000 and initially kept buying after the top. I quickly corrected my mistakes but only treaded water heading into the bottom in 2002. I didn't believe the bottom was in during 2002 and initially started fading the move up but like last time, I was fortunate to catch my mistakes early and correct them. It's odd I made the same mistake but in opposite directions during those years.

Fast forward to 2008 I was schooled pretty well from the 2000/2002 experience and made more money in 2007/2008 than I did from 2000 to 2006, combined. It was simply a phenominal time.

Like you, I feel blessed to have the financial independence and freedom that trading can offer but it has come at a hefty price.

Over the years I have become addicted to a couple types of prescription drugs, directly related to trading. One was to treat the stress and the other was to treat the pain from a herniated disk I had in my neck. I have 4 screws in my spine and residual nerve pain in my left arm. That is just one of the battle scars that remains.

Trading has given me everything I ever wanted but it has taken almost everything I've ever had. I credit Hinduism, Yoga, and Meditation to saving my life and getting me off all prescription drugs. I love trading and I hate trading. It's all I know how to do but I'm currently at a cross road. There's a pretty good chance I'm going to quit in the coming year(s). I've beat addition more than once but the addiction to trading is going to be my biggest battle ever.

Quote from Neenisti:

Great background . . .
You only have a few years on me but our attitudes our different. I trade for a living as well. I learned to ride the trend up in the 90's & selling pull backs, I rode the drop from late 2000 and bought retracing moves, I bought and rode the beginning of the bottom up in the Spring of 2003 selling pull backs as well, I caught the top in December of 2007 cleaning up all of the way down and buying the retracing moves there too. I've been buying since July of 2009 and selling retracing moves again. Price currently is still going up but weakening. The key is to learn to trade both directions and understand how to see strong and weak moves that telegraph price beginning to reverse or continue in one direction or another.

The other difference is that I feel blessed to have learned a profession that gives me a grand living and is mentally stimulating. It has been a long road to but the journey was wonderful.

Thanks for sharing your background.
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I'm an avid student of randomness and my strategy is based on the fact, emphasis on "fact," that the market is random. The laws of randomness ensure that what you describe doesn't work but it's entirely possible that there is much more to what you are talking about than a few sentences on ET could describe. There are definitely times when my strategy involves "catching a move," even if it's only a part of that move (which is always the case) but it's not my primary strategy. It's my strong belief that you cannot survive in trading unless you have a complete understanding of how to read and base your strategy around.....volatility! What worked in 2008 does not work today because of the difference in volatility. Once volatility increases trying to "catch a move" will fail miserably. It ain't so bad right now, however.

The market is currently trend-stationary with no unit root problems, depending on your time frame. Wait until we switch to a non-stationary environment with unit root problems. Catching a move will blow up quick. The laws of statistics guarantee it.

Quote from Fireplace:

Who said anything about 'predicting' the whole move? If the ES moves up 10 points (unless it's all on one big spike), there will be several key areas where the mkt will signal the savvy trader that they should enter. If the trader can't see these then they should NOT be trying to scalp a point off the top.
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Quote from Dalmation:

What wisdom! Please tell me more.

Typical e trader. He never loses and has a grand life. Needs to tell everyone about it also via an alias, too.
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Ah, Mrs. Dalmation trolling around another thread, I see.

Real traders have real loosing trades. Real successful traders have more & larger winning trades and smaller and fewer loosing trades. Real successful traders don't loose their homes and belongings holding on to stupid trades thinking they are smarter than their charts like some posters named for stubborn four legged canines.

Thought you had me on ignore? You just can't help yourself from trolling threads posting lies can you.
 
Quote from the1:

Over the years I have become addicted to a couple types of prescription drugs, directly related to trading. One was to treat the stress and the other was to treat the pain from a herniated disk I had in my neck. I have 4 screws in my spine and residual nerve pain in my left arm. That is just one of the battle scars that remains.
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Sorry to hear about the scars. Remember you are more intelligent than your charts just not smarter.
 
Quote from the1:

I made great coin on the move up into March 2000 and initially kept buying after the top. I quickly corrected my mistakes but only treaded water heading into the bottom in 2002. I didn't believe the bottom was in during 2002 and initially started fading the move up but like last time, I was fortunate to catch my mistakes early and correct them. It's odd I made the same mistake but in opposite directions during those years.

Fast forward to 2008 I was schooled pretty well from the 2000/2002 experience and made more money in 2007/2008 than I did from 2000 to 2006, combined. It was simply a phenominal time.

Like you, I feel blessed to have the financial independence and freedom that trading can offer but it has come at a hefty price.

Over the years I have become addicted to a couple types of prescription drugs, directly related to trading. One was to treat the stress and the other was to treat the pain from a herniated disk I had in my neck. I have 4 screws in my spine and residual nerve pain in my left arm. That is just one of the battle scars that remains.

Trading has given me everything I ever wanted but it has taken almost everything I've ever had. I credit Hinduism, Yoga, and Meditation to saving my life and getting me off all prescription drugs. I love trading and I hate trading. It's all I know how to do but I'm currently at a cross road. There's a pretty good chance I'm going to quit in the coming year(s). I've beat addition more than once but the addiction to trading is going to be my biggest battle ever.
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Opiates and benzodiazepines, a common killer. Most do not escapes the inertia of that deadly combo. Congratulations on your achievement. Insomuch as addiction to trading, objectify making money. After you do this, pan out to a wider time frame, daily, weekly, then monthly. You are right that trading intraday will eventually kill you. I have recently had that epiphany as well. Your system tho, I suspect has allowed you to map out where you are in the market at all times, and markets are fractal, so all you have to do is increase the wavelength and continue with your strat.

Good trading.
 
Quote from cactus_trader:

2. yes, again if you want to make money and be in demand in finance go the HFT route and hang up the engineering idea right now. the money is double and the upside is huge. Fin Math is never going to go away.
You can land a job, in Chicago, NYC, CT, Houston (energy firms) etc in no time.

3. A nice SFR home in Hinsdale, Il value of about 1.0-1.2 mil $25k annual taxes
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Quote from Maverick74:

Regarding number 2, you are spot on. I am shocked how many young kids on here asking about prop firms to trade when they have financial engineering backgrounds. When I heard what these kids were getting paid right out of school I was floored. FWIW, anyone in Chicago, IIT has an outstanding Fin Engineering program with courses taught by guys from top firms here in the city. Excellent connections there too when you get out.

Regarding item 3, how high were they?
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http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/reply.php?action=newreply&threadid=220767


To Small Traders (LOSERS), to make it in this business, u must have a math and computer engineer degrees and JOIN THE HOUSE.

OTHERWISE, Just lose!!!
 
To small traders (losers),

Do you really think u can make it in this business by reading books and subscribing 3rd party educational and system vendors without getting math and computer science degrees and upon graduating, join the house??


If u believe u can make out in this business without getting degrees and working for the house

U MUST BE NUTS!!!!

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/03/business/la-fi-amateur-currency-trading-20110403

in the FX market alone, 605K people lose out of 615K annual.

More than 90% of small traders lose. They just lose!!!
 
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