How the ES Might Have Tipped Its Hand in the Weekly Charts

CaseyB

CaseyB

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If you were trading the ES in the week leading up to May 1, 2019, you might have found yourself in a shaky and undecidable position. The unknowns–and there were lots of them–included the following:

  • The S&P 500 was at 2956.50, which was an all-time-highs; having broken above its September record high of 2947.00 just a day ago.
  • A month into earnings season, around 75% of all S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings expectations, suggesting a healthy fundamental environment.
  • The Federal reserve was about to announce its decision on interest rates…
  • There was the ongoing US-China trade war
  • The market was seemingly reacting off President Trump’s tweets, perhaps even more so than market fundamentals; so you wondered is he going to tweet anything that might support or take down the markets?
If you were looking at fundamentals for certainty in this highly uncertain environment, then any economic or geopolitical data might have just added more to the confusion.

Fortunately, as the S&P 500 broke above its third record high since January 2018, there was one way to gauge the strength of the rally: checking price momentum against the Relative Strength Index (RSI) but on a weekly scale, which is a time frame that some swing traders and only a few day traders tend to reference.
 
Click bait. RSI, you might really be onto something here :D:D:D

CaseyB said:
If you were trading the ES in the week leading up to May 1, 2019, you might have found yourself in a shaky and undecidable position. The unknowns–and there were lots of them–included the following:

  • The S&P 500 was at 2956.50, which was an all-time-highs; having broken above its September record high of 2947.00 just a day ago.
  • A month into earnings season, around 75% of all S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings expectations, suggesting a healthy fundamental environment.
  • The Federal reserve was about to announce its decision on interest rates…
  • There was the ongoing US-China trade war
  • The market was seemingly reacting off President Trump’s tweets, perhaps even more so than market fundamentals; so you wondered is he going to tweet anything that might support or take down the markets?
If you were looking at fundamentals for certainty in this highly uncertain environment, then any economic or geopolitical data might have just added more to the confusion.

Fortunately, as the S&P 500 broke above its third record high since January 2018, there was one way to gauge the strength of the rally: checking price momentum against the Relative Strength Index (RSI) but on a weekly scale, which is a time frame that some swing traders and only a few day traders tend to reference.
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