How probably is a collapse of Euro currency possible within 9 to 18 months ?

TrAndy2022

TrAndy2022

Is it possible with higher interest rates going to 5% or 6% in spring next year in Euro area too (assumption is that the inflation is still out of control and do not come back to much lower levels), that Greece, Portugal, maybe then Spain and Italy needs to drop out of Euro currency, which is then the end of Euro currency ? In the financial crisis around 2008 it was near at the end with very high CDS rates for countries like Greece and Portugal, and even Spain. Now with the broader inflation it could be more probably that this will be tested again ? And how far do you think the EURUSD can go down then ? Thoughts ?
 
If market conditions get to the point where such an outcome threatens, central banks (including the Fed) will blink and shift back to printing as the UK has just done.

My guess is the 2% inflation targets will be implicitly abandoned.
 
We've been given a price of 0.91 EURUSD from the trader, actually wealth manager, who said some years back GBPUSD would go to parity when at 1.40, no one believed it could happen, and then invert the other way, wealth destruction comes in many forms for the many, and wealth creation comes in just one form for the few, the problem being the few is hard to achieve simply because the barriers put in the way are designed to make sure you are not one of them :)
 
The Euro will be dead within 5-6 years. It was always bogus construct meant to benefit France & Germany from the get go. Selling cheese & heavy machinery to the suckers of the PIIGS.

A currency with no debt issuance authority? That's a joke. Only idiots like Helmut Kohl and the psychos from the WEC believe such nonsense. A pseudo unity will not prevent European nations from engaging in war, which was the original intent.
 
DaveV said:
With the disaster that Britain's economy has become since BrExit
More...
Classic post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy. Great Britain's problems have nothing to do with Brexit. In fact, they're largely because they follow moronic EU like policies. The Eurozone is and was a bad joke. It may suffer a slow death, and it may flail around like a dying animal, but it will die.
 
I have met over a hundred professional bank traders over the past 2 decades who all declared the imminent demise of the euro. They all lost money on that trade. Same with the yen and JGBs.

nitrene said:
The Euro will be dead within 5-6 years. It was always bogus construct meant to benefit France & Germany from the get go. Selling cheese & heavy machinery to the suckers of the PIIGS.

A currency with no debt issuance authority? That's a joke. Only idiots like Helmut Kohl and the psychos from the WEC believe such nonsense. A pseudo unity will not prevent European nations from engaging in war, which was the original intent.
More...
 
MKTrader said:
Classic post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy. Great Britain's problems have nothing to do with Brexit. In fact, they're largely because they follow moronic EU like policies. The Eurozone is and was a bad joke. It may suffer a slow death, and it may flail around like a dying animal, but it will die.
More...

Britain has many economic problems, but then which country doesn't. But don't think for a second that Brexit was not a big part of their problems:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...exit-thumped-britain-s-economy-and-businesses
Key Points:
Exports from Britain are down 16%.
Brexit has so far caused a 1.5% decline in Britain's GDP and is predicted to cause a 4 to 5% decline in the long run.
The only region of Britain that did not participate in Brexit, Northern Ireland, appears to have fared best.
A majority of voters now favor re-joining the European Union
 
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