How predictive is volume to index futures?
- Thread starter Susannah
- Start date
Good. How about we send each other the last 5 days PnL? If your buy/hold had a better 5 day return than my account then I will stop using volume to trade.
And BTW, you can make assumptions about me all you like. But every method I trade I trade it because it makes money. Every element that is incorporated into the strats I trade is simple but essential.
sys1
1. PRICE
sys2
1. Variation of RSI
sys3
1. Variation(s) of Historical Volitility
2. ATR
Volume is incorporated into every one of those strategies and it also is a filter that helps me find trades. All three take advantage of different aspects of the market. Volume makes every single one of them more profitable for me, 2 could make money without it though.
Quote from trackstar:
Good. How about we send each other the last 5 days PnL? If your buy/hold had a better 5 day return than my account then I will stop using volume to trade.
Well, 5 days settles everything.
And BTW, you can make assumptions about me all you like. But every method I trade I trade it because it makes money. Every element that is incorporated into the strats I trade is simple but essential.
sys1
1. PRICE
sys2
1. Variation of RSI
sys3
1. Variation(s) of Historical Volitility
2. ATR
Volume is incorporated into every one of those strategies and it also is a filter that helps me find trades. All three take advantage of different aspects of the market. Volume makes every single one of them more profitable for me, 2 could make money without it though.
We are already aware of your idea of proof. If you believe it, it must be so. Whoever would bother running a couple of hundred trades through a spreadsheet to see if it ACTUALLY makes a significant difference?? Why confuse the matter with facts? That is the difference between something that works and something that people BELIEVE works.
And that is why many use Price, but Volume remains suspect.
Good. How about we send each other the last 5 days PnL? If your buy/hold had a better 5 day return than my account then I will stop using volume to trade.
Well, 5 days settles everything.
And BTW, you can make assumptions about me all you like. But every method I trade I trade it because it makes money. Every element that is incorporated into the strats I trade is simple but essential.
sys1
1. PRICE
sys2
1. Variation of RSI
sys3
1. Variation(s) of Historical Volitility
2. ATR
Volume is incorporated into every one of those strategies and it also is a filter that helps me find trades. All three take advantage of different aspects of the market. Volume makes every single one of them more profitable for me, 2 could make money without it though.
We are already aware of your idea of proof. If you believe it, it must be so. Whoever would bother running a couple of hundred trades through a spreadsheet to see if it ACTUALLY makes a significant difference?? Why confuse the matter with facts? That is the difference between something that works and something that people BELIEVE works.
And that is why many use Price, but Volume remains suspect.
TraderZones:
In the red text you make some very important and pursuasive points from you point of view. To be helpful to those who agree with you I am doing a point by point response. In this way I hope to fully arm you for the viewpoint that you have and I feel this contribution will help you remain where you are in the infinite scheme of things.
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Quote from jack hershey:
In your case, we have seen through a couple of handles that your opinion is kinda shakey for making use of anything you have said.
Cough gag wheeze - HOW many handles have you used here Jack?
I have used the following in the order presented; I have added a comment or two so you have the ancillary facts at your finger tips. Jack Hershey (this is my name and so I use it everywhere for the convenience of others); bubba7 (I used my partner's computer for a while and at that time I did not know how to use my name there so I used our cat's name and a 7 since the name "bubba" was already taken); grob109 (this name was used after I was banned (jack hershey and bubba7; a grob109 is a glider model and I flew one for many years before my health deteriorated); cd23 (recently, there have been some crazies in ET who follow my posts asiduously because of their mental state and orientation; it gives me a break from them for a couple of days and it cuts back on moderator banning and deleting work; you may recall from doing back searches that the initial ratio of my posts to critique's posts were 1 to 7 when I first arrived. While i never start threads and only respond to other OP's, initially those that I contributed to became very large in a short time. Now the journal rate of heavily moderated threads is only 1,000,000 hits a year on average)
And as for opinion, what happened when you said for the sake of Baron you were leaving EliteTrader? Something wrong with your word?
Your goal and that of those like you is to rid ET of people who fit my profile. I did leave for a period of months. As time passed the zeal of the crazies lessened so I came back as CD23 and did not acknowledge that cd23 was me. It became apparent after a while since there was a discovery debate by various persons who were reading cd23. I would repeat the sequence if it became necessary but it probably won't; it is a very difficult challenge to outdo what I contribute and especially with run of the mill critiques and posting my picture.
It is not that what I post is an opinion because what I post usually are conclusions that are proven.
We are well aware of what your conclusions have done to mislead quite a lot of new traders
This is your theme statement. And you are the spokesman for a group of like minded people. New traders are helped by you to go in a particular direction. Away from what I espouse. That is a good idea. If a person can be affected by your mission and goals, then it is good that the person does not come towards what I espouse. This kind of new trader is one where he needs to be conducted by someone like you and your group. It will save him time and money in his career as a new trader who is going to become part of the majority of traders who, for a time, were new traders.
I transfer knowledge, skills and experience to others based on being an expert trader whose performance is beyond the pale in terms of the average very successful trader. You have a base line standard: buy and hold. I did not use that stepping stone ever. I was severely criticicized in the '50's by those in the banking community and the New York Social egister for my "out of bounds" behavior and endangering my family and it's reputation. It ws not a good idea for me to be driving around in a 300SL gull wing to the golf course as a guy just married and just out of college. i was told to just stick to keeping the heirloom Stanly Steamer in tip top running condition if I wanted to show off in the parking lot.
You cannot imagine what it was like to be cited by the SEC for about three years running for insider trading. It took them a long time to understand they were wrong and that they needed to upgrade their detection and analysis software. They had goals and among them were the goal to stamp out people who were making money unfairly and apparently at the expense of the common investor and broker. I had to take it very seriously when I was being criticized by the legal staff of a very large brokerage firm where I was running many accounts, some under limited POA's of adult handicapped persons.
In the red text you make some very important and pursuasive points from you point of view. To be helpful to those who agree with you I am doing a point by point response. In this way I hope to fully arm you for the viewpoint that you have and I feel this contribution will help you remain where you are in the infinite scheme of things.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from jack hershey:
In your case, we have seen through a couple of handles that your opinion is kinda shakey for making use of anything you have said.
Cough gag wheeze - HOW many handles have you used here Jack?
I have used the following in the order presented; I have added a comment or two so you have the ancillary facts at your finger tips. Jack Hershey (this is my name and so I use it everywhere for the convenience of others); bubba7 (I used my partner's computer for a while and at that time I did not know how to use my name there so I used our cat's name and a 7 since the name "bubba" was already taken); grob109 (this name was used after I was banned (jack hershey and bubba7; a grob109 is a glider model and I flew one for many years before my health deteriorated); cd23 (recently, there have been some crazies in ET who follow my posts asiduously because of their mental state and orientation; it gives me a break from them for a couple of days and it cuts back on moderator banning and deleting work; you may recall from doing back searches that the initial ratio of my posts to critique's posts were 1 to 7 when I first arrived. While i never start threads and only respond to other OP's, initially those that I contributed to became very large in a short time. Now the journal rate of heavily moderated threads is only 1,000,000 hits a year on average)
And as for opinion, what happened when you said for the sake of Baron you were leaving EliteTrader? Something wrong with your word?
Your goal and that of those like you is to rid ET of people who fit my profile. I did leave for a period of months. As time passed the zeal of the crazies lessened so I came back as CD23 and did not acknowledge that cd23 was me. It became apparent after a while since there was a discovery debate by various persons who were reading cd23. I would repeat the sequence if it became necessary but it probably won't; it is a very difficult challenge to outdo what I contribute and especially with run of the mill critiques and posting my picture.
It is not that what I post is an opinion because what I post usually are conclusions that are proven.
We are well aware of what your conclusions have done to mislead quite a lot of new traders
This is your theme statement. And you are the spokesman for a group of like minded people. New traders are helped by you to go in a particular direction. Away from what I espouse. That is a good idea. If a person can be affected by your mission and goals, then it is good that the person does not come towards what I espouse. This kind of new trader is one where he needs to be conducted by someone like you and your group. It will save him time and money in his career as a new trader who is going to become part of the majority of traders who, for a time, were new traders.
I transfer knowledge, skills and experience to others based on being an expert trader whose performance is beyond the pale in terms of the average very successful trader. You have a base line standard: buy and hold. I did not use that stepping stone ever. I was severely criticicized in the '50's by those in the banking community and the New York Social egister for my "out of bounds" behavior and endangering my family and it's reputation. It ws not a good idea for me to be driving around in a 300SL gull wing to the golf course as a guy just married and just out of college. i was told to just stick to keeping the heirloom Stanly Steamer in tip top running condition if I wanted to show off in the parking lot.
You cannot imagine what it was like to be cited by the SEC for about three years running for insider trading. It took them a long time to understand they were wrong and that they needed to upgrade their detection and analysis software. They had goals and among them were the goal to stamp out people who were making money unfairly and apparently at the expense of the common investor and broker. I had to take it very seriously when I was being criticized by the legal staff of a very large brokerage firm where I was running many accounts, some under limited POA's of adult handicapped persons.
continued...
As for proven, you run like rabbits from a brushfire when challenged to have your wares independently tested. But then again, you have already heard that over a hundred times.
So you say. Those who have put in the work to understand a partnership with the market using PVT, SCT or sector rotation have learned that the name of the game is transference.
Others have "translated" parts of the template and methods and found that they enhance their approaches. Just translating PVT or SCT is not the best way to have a quality free standing method, however. A lot gets lost in the translation.
A thousand times is more like it with reference to independent testing. and, of course, there is a lot of independent testing going on. I'm sure you have seen it and it doesn't satisfy you.
What you characterize as a challenge is a challenge from your point of view. You are interested in seeing the approaches perform in all kinds of markets. You are asking to simply take the trader out of the picture and see the reults over a period of time that is sufficient. It is not complicated to do that on about 5 levels. The results are definitely known and from those results, the transfer process was greatly improved. the period of time people have been testing here in ET is short compared to the overall period of testing that has gone on. the record speaks for itself.
As a rabbit I was called "bugs" at summer camp fpr years. I have buck teeth. And in the past I was a "hot shot" in AZ for a while as a summer volunteer. So I am not used to running from brush fires.
I have also put to rest the reverse engineering possibities from two perspectives: people who phish and IB's who coattail trade me. There is ordinarily a gap in the relationship of trader/programmer teams. You may have experienced this when given instructions from traders to code software to do what they suggest. Maybe you have tested such work and found the trader directions were lacking of the software didn't work as planned. These circumstances come from assorted people doing what they do when no one in the space knows how to make money.
Obviously, from your questions and from questions of people like you, you all are hoping for a first time experience.
Not as a rabbit and in the absence of brush fires, I have seen people get their first experiences. you were not there nor were any people quite like you. In a setting where principals, collectively, have hundreds of years experience trading, it is a challenge to affect the scene.
Since I have done it without exception, I'll explain it to you and those like you. No one in the room, absolutely no one, is any different than you. they all have clothes on that reflect their bearing and status in the power structure and months have passed to get the meeting set up because it was difficult for those proposing the meeting to prevail. the challenge was an internal one simply because the prevailing attitude is one where "there is nothing under the sun that I haven't already seen". Employees of principals have put it on the line to get the principals to spend a moment on something they already know has got to be bogus.
One of the principals, for example, was down 40mil with one of his clients. And he only made 200K on the 27th of FEB and everyone in the room knew it!! it was his putters leaning in the corner next to the small putting green near the corner. On the wall was a badge labelled "PRES of SP floor".
Do you think that someone is going to bring up a C2 screen with a trading record on it? Do you think anyone in the room wants what you and your kind think is proof? You think I am a rabbit in the room and these guys started a brush fire?
Think of another room at the Links Club in NYC. Think of another room at the University Club in NYC. Think of a sitting room in Lehman Bros just off the office of the CEO. Think of a fourth floor sitting room on Baunhofstrasse where UBS is located.
What happens is that before anyone gets in any room the reason to be is the room has been determined long ago and as a consequence of anything but looking at what you think is the criteria.
In three or four short days of meetings, any Q's and any work that needs to be done is gotten on the table and staff is assigned to getting up to speed. I have never seen any location that can get technical staff to get any trading room up to speed in four days.
You have not discovered as yet what the problem is that people like you or the financial industry is facing. It takes a lot ofr a team at a financial corporation to discover what the real problem is that they are facing. They actually have been hiring people like you and they value their input.
I do not care about what you think is a challenge that you believe I am running from. Your concept of a challenge is simply trivial and is not in play anywhere where the rubber meets the road.
What do imagine it was like when the hits of 1,000,000 were surpassed on the journal last year? In a journal where your posts would have not seen the light of day.
At the IB's where this style of trading is taking place, what do you think is going on? What are the job specs of the new employees they are hiring and have hired? They are not quants that's for sure.
Up to 2007 we focussed on getting the tranference model to become functional. We eliminated a lot of the translation which was based on handicaps largely related to past experience and past skills acquisition. Make a list of your hang ups that prevented you from doing anything constructive for yourself and which cause you to protect new traders from our transference affort. see how, evidently, they screw up any chance you had in the past to be able to consider a foreign paradigm or how a paradigm shift can occur.
You cannot even define any challenge anyone is facing who is trying to get inot a purposeful learning mode for anything related to acquiring knowledge, skills or experience. You think looking at C2 results over a period of time proves something about a trader being able to trade an approach. You're screwed.
As for proven, you run like rabbits from a brushfire when challenged to have your wares independently tested. But then again, you have already heard that over a hundred times.
So you say. Those who have put in the work to understand a partnership with the market using PVT, SCT or sector rotation have learned that the name of the game is transference.
Others have "translated" parts of the template and methods and found that they enhance their approaches. Just translating PVT or SCT is not the best way to have a quality free standing method, however. A lot gets lost in the translation.
A thousand times is more like it with reference to independent testing. and, of course, there is a lot of independent testing going on. I'm sure you have seen it and it doesn't satisfy you.
What you characterize as a challenge is a challenge from your point of view. You are interested in seeing the approaches perform in all kinds of markets. You are asking to simply take the trader out of the picture and see the reults over a period of time that is sufficient. It is not complicated to do that on about 5 levels. The results are definitely known and from those results, the transfer process was greatly improved. the period of time people have been testing here in ET is short compared to the overall period of testing that has gone on. the record speaks for itself.
As a rabbit I was called "bugs" at summer camp fpr years. I have buck teeth. And in the past I was a "hot shot" in AZ for a while as a summer volunteer. So I am not used to running from brush fires.
I have also put to rest the reverse engineering possibities from two perspectives: people who phish and IB's who coattail trade me. There is ordinarily a gap in the relationship of trader/programmer teams. You may have experienced this when given instructions from traders to code software to do what they suggest. Maybe you have tested such work and found the trader directions were lacking of the software didn't work as planned. These circumstances come from assorted people doing what they do when no one in the space knows how to make money.
Obviously, from your questions and from questions of people like you, you all are hoping for a first time experience.
Not as a rabbit and in the absence of brush fires, I have seen people get their first experiences. you were not there nor were any people quite like you. In a setting where principals, collectively, have hundreds of years experience trading, it is a challenge to affect the scene.
Since I have done it without exception, I'll explain it to you and those like you. No one in the room, absolutely no one, is any different than you. they all have clothes on that reflect their bearing and status in the power structure and months have passed to get the meeting set up because it was difficult for those proposing the meeting to prevail. the challenge was an internal one simply because the prevailing attitude is one where "there is nothing under the sun that I haven't already seen". Employees of principals have put it on the line to get the principals to spend a moment on something they already know has got to be bogus.
One of the principals, for example, was down 40mil with one of his clients. And he only made 200K on the 27th of FEB and everyone in the room knew it!! it was his putters leaning in the corner next to the small putting green near the corner. On the wall was a badge labelled "PRES of SP floor".
Do you think that someone is going to bring up a C2 screen with a trading record on it? Do you think anyone in the room wants what you and your kind think is proof? You think I am a rabbit in the room and these guys started a brush fire?
Think of another room at the Links Club in NYC. Think of another room at the University Club in NYC. Think of a sitting room in Lehman Bros just off the office of the CEO. Think of a fourth floor sitting room on Baunhofstrasse where UBS is located.
What happens is that before anyone gets in any room the reason to be is the room has been determined long ago and as a consequence of anything but looking at what you think is the criteria.
In three or four short days of meetings, any Q's and any work that needs to be done is gotten on the table and staff is assigned to getting up to speed. I have never seen any location that can get technical staff to get any trading room up to speed in four days.
You have not discovered as yet what the problem is that people like you or the financial industry is facing. It takes a lot ofr a team at a financial corporation to discover what the real problem is that they are facing. They actually have been hiring people like you and they value their input.
I do not care about what you think is a challenge that you believe I am running from. Your concept of a challenge is simply trivial and is not in play anywhere where the rubber meets the road.
What do imagine it was like when the hits of 1,000,000 were surpassed on the journal last year? In a journal where your posts would have not seen the light of day.
At the IB's where this style of trading is taking place, what do you think is going on? What are the job specs of the new employees they are hiring and have hired? They are not quants that's for sure.
Up to 2007 we focussed on getting the tranference model to become functional. We eliminated a lot of the translation which was based on handicaps largely related to past experience and past skills acquisition. Make a list of your hang ups that prevented you from doing anything constructive for yourself and which cause you to protect new traders from our transference affort. see how, evidently, they screw up any chance you had in the past to be able to consider a foreign paradigm or how a paradigm shift can occur.
You cannot even define any challenge anyone is facing who is trying to get inot a purposeful learning mode for anything related to acquiring knowledge, skills or experience. You think looking at C2 results over a period of time proves something about a trader being able to trade an approach. You're screwed.