How often you're 80%-100% sure ?

How often are you sure, that this single trade will work out ?

  • 20% - making many shots, most fail, but few win big.

    Votes: 4 25.0%

  • 40%

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • 60%

    Votes: 4 25.0%

  • 80%

    Votes: 6 37.5%

  • 100% - don't trade that often, but when i do, this is it.

    Votes: 2 12.5%
  • Total voters
    16
deaddog said:
That's a lottery bet is it not; Either make a pot full or loss it all.
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Not if you have positive expectancy, then it is like VC, blackjack.... But you have to make a large number of bets otherwise the probability of a long losing streak will lead to ruin.
 
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ironchef said:
Not if you have positive expectancy, then it is like VC, blackjack.... But you have to make a large number of bets otherwise the probability of a long losing streak will lead to ruin.
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Not sure I understand what this has to do with venture capitalism. Are you saying that venture capital has a higher risk adjusted rate of return.

The blackjack part I understand, determine when the deck is in your favor and bet more.

And having an edge trading I understand. when the probability of a trade moving in your direction is greater than moving against you.

Both depend on strict money management and following a well thought out plan. Both can have perfect set-ups and have the results go against you. There is no guarantee that you will win the next hand or even the next session or the next trade or series of trades.
 
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