How much will the stock market fall if Biden wins?

[tomorton]

Since I don't have the right to vote, so this is an outside of the US point of view. Let's do a very simplistic coin flip. Let's say the chance of a Biden win is 50% and the chance of market crash under Biden is 50%. The chance for both outcomes is 25%. In order for the final outcome to be 50%, both 50% must be 70%. I am sitting on the fence.

An interesting take on probabilities.

Did you hear about the blonde and the scientist walking along a street and the scientist said to the blonde, "What do you think is the probability of the next person coming round that corner being Chinese?".
"Oh she said, 50-50."
"How can you say 50-50?", asked the scientist.
"Well", said the blonde, "he either will be or he won't be, so its 50-50".

 

[S2007S]

I'll repeat it again and again and again. It doesn't matter who wins the market is heading higher...the market will find any excuse no matter who wins to rally. And if by chance it is a contested election and markets fall each and every day there is no clear outcome the markets will erase all losses and add substantial gains once a winner is sorted out. So once again it doesn't matter who wins this election.

 

[S2007S]

Look a t thr futures surging....markets will most likely move 10% or more by end of November so get ready for great volatility and of course most of it to the upside.

 

[S2007S]

Look a t thr futures surging....markets will most likely move 10% or more by end of November so get ready for great volatility and of course most of it to the upside.

Look at the market futures continuing to surge. Just as I thought. 10% move is almost here, only took a week....