How much will the stock market fall if Biden wins?
- Thread starter thecoder
- Start date
Your assesment seems generably reasonable, although -30% seems a bit on the high side to me. However, reversing the time periods between candidates, looking one month out on a Trump victory or three months out on a Biden victory would likely see similar market outcomes in my opinion.
Not much. A massive stimulus is coming if he wins.
-1,000,000%
Do you mean Biden would borrow money from the general public is push up Wall Street gains?
It would have been nice if Biden told everyone his plan, instead of hiding in the basement.
Market may not fall at all on a Biden-declared outcome. After all, he's talking $11T stimulus... and the market loves stimulus.
But let's not forget.... ALL of this stimulus is bad in the long run.
His assesment seems "fucking retarded".
Logically if Biden wins investors will all exit to lock gains at a lower tax rate, but since most of the bull market was buybacks... Hé.
Stock market likely might spike into a bubble if Biden throws money at casuals aka dumb money that will buy stock market lottery tickets.
And then the bubble will go boom and the stock market will fall 70% or more (inflation adjusted).
I know some advisors told their wealthy retired people to get out of taxable accounts if biden wins.
However, I also have family friends who told me since their advisors told them to get out if Biden wins... they already got out.
So you could see how free money and the FED back stop could cause the market to go up in the short run. (if a good portion of the selling already happened.)
2. But... in the long run if corporate taxes go up... the the market will have to discount the hit to their after tax profits... and we know guys like Munger care about taxes, even if Buffet says he does not (presumably to curry favor with those who raise taxes) .
Munger called ebitda bullshit earnings.
"Buffett’s longtime business partner, Charlie Munger, expressed Berkshire Hathaway’s position on this particular formula best: “I think that, every time you see the word EBITDA, you should substitute the word ‘bullshit’ earnings.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brentbeshore/2014/11/13/ebitda-is-bs-earnings/?sh=23a32e0d6070
However, I also have family friends who told me since their advisors told them to get out if Biden wins... they already got out.
So you could see how free money and the FED back stop could cause the market to go up in the short run. (if a good portion of the selling already happened.)
2. But... in the long run if corporate taxes go up... the the market will have to discount the hit to their after tax profits... and we know guys like Munger care about taxes, even if Buffet says he does not (presumably to curry favor with those who raise taxes) .
Munger called ebitda bullshit earnings.
"Buffett’s longtime business partner, Charlie Munger, expressed Berkshire Hathaway’s position on this particular formula best: “I think that, every time you see the word EBITDA, you should substitute the word ‘bullshit’ earnings.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brentbeshore/2014/11/13/ebitda-is-bs-earnings/?sh=23a32e0d6070
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All of that is sensibly in the mix for consideration.