How Much to invest Analysis

btw, in regards to these alternative insulin delivery systems.

this is one of the areas i have been studying for 10 yrs now - alternative drug delivery systems. i have a friend who teaches in the field of pharmacy in this very topic - delivery systems

oral breakdown of hormones, peptides etc. is a big negative for pharm industry.

about the only oral hormone that is NOT broken down in the oral pathway is estrogen btw (ie birth control pills)

testosterone, insulin, hgh, igf, etc are all a big bust orally. that's why insulin is injected, hgh is injected, igf is injected, test is injected, and the test that is taken orally is usually methylated, which makes it bioavailable (avoids first past liver breakdown), but also makes it hepatatoxic, similar to tylenol and many other oral drugs - read: dangerous to liver. in general, most oral drugs that are 7-methylated are very hepatatoxic.

nasal administration has been at the forefront of technology for some time. it already HAS been done for hormones long before they tried it with insulin -the east german olympic team comes to mind. they were using hydroxypropylbetacyclodextrin compounded hormones iirc for their exceptionally short half-life in the body and instant admin to beat the tests.


ANYWAYS...

buccal, nasal and transdermal are the three ways around first pass liver breakdown (or even breakdown in digestive system prior to liver that is the case with many exceptionally fragile hormones).

transdermal (think nicotine patch) tends to be messy and a pain. and is not precise enough for insulin

buccal has worked (also with hydroxypropyl...), and nasal sprays too

the thing about insulin is that the LD50 is so close to the therapeutic dose, that whatever alternative delivery method turns out to be the VHS (vs. the betamax) of drug deliveries HAS to be not just effective, but EXTREMELY precise. there IS no LD50 for estrogen, test, hgh, igf, etc. iow, if the dosing is off you won't die. in the case of insulin, you will definitely die.

that's the kicker.

transdermals are too imprecise imo.

the buccals and especially the nasals offer better potential.

anyways, taht's my .02

btw, most people don't realize that injectable insulin, which is one of the most powerful and dangerous drugs on the planet, if misdosed is an OVER THE COUNTER drug, at least in some formulations e.g. humulin-r

that's simply astounding, and a nod to the power inherent in the pharma industry and that AARP to circumvent normal FDA cautionary procedures.
 
Quote from gkishot:

If you are willing to take 10k loss why won't you invest 10k instead of 20k off the bat & let it go to 0 without any stop losses.
More...

Good point. Greed comes to mind. Owning twice as many shares.

I like the "buying incrementally as it rises,"
because if it falls, then I wouldn't add, and would have much less at risk.

Although it could rise, and then fall later.
 
>>ok, there's a penny stock [$3]
that I believe has the potential of rising 5x in the next 1-2 years.

My net worth is, say 100k, and I'm willing to risk 10%, or 10k, in this investment.

I feel my risk in this stock is 50%, if all goes bad.

So, am I correct, to invest $20,000, or 6,666 shares?
Worst case, stock falls to $1.50, and I take a 10k loss.

Have I made any major errors here?

thanks<<<

Waterboy,

I think you did. 10% of 100K is 10,000 not 20,000 so, you would get 3,333 shares. Also, your risk of loss is $10,000 since, this is a stock. The smart way to do it is buy on support, a little at a time, 1,000 to 2,000 shares at a time. Put a stop loss after you buy to minimize losses. If it goes up, trail your stops.
 
you are of course talking about GNBT

fundamentally speaking, it's a train wreck

as a "story" stock and a speculative potential... there is SOMETHING there

i've been trading it mostly to profit off the hype

buy on panic (when everybody dumps because of some news article or something blasting the stock) and sell on euphoria - when all the momo jockeys are riding it up

clearly, this stock (until they actually have (if ever) a real, viable product) moves on hype, pr's etc.

both on the birdflu front, and the insulin front

i PREFER NVAX, which i have been in as an investment for some time, but have traded around my core position to take advantage of fear and euphoria.

GNBT? buy some now, just to lock in a position.

set up some limit orders to be able to participate as a buyer at lower price levels when the next panic ensues.

if yer not prepared to lighten up a little on euphoric rises, then be prepared for some wild P/L swings

like i said, unlike NVAX, this is mostly hype moreso than any solid drug in the pipeline right now, but it is totally possible the thing could skyrocket and gap up @ any moment

such is the nature of this type of beast

personally, i vastly prefer buying companies like VPHM and NVAX on weakness vs. GNBT. but i do think GNBT is a fair spec play, or a fun trader
 
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