Given the history of technology and the almost universal failure (on the short side) to predict how soon a given invention will come of age, I'd say you're far more likely to be right than any naysayer.
How much Space-X is (could be) worth ?
- Thread starter Nobert
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Given the history of technology and the almost universal failure (on the short side) to predict how soon a given invention will come of age, I'd say you're far more likely to be right than any naysayer.
Yes I know comparing old quotes to looking back and seeing how crazy they were to think such a thing. But reality is space living is hundreds and hundreds if not thousands of years away.
Their biggest cash cows will likely be defense and telecom. They may be able to corner those markets given how much fat is added by the usual suspects. The tourism aspect remains to be seen if they want to be taken seriously as an environmentally conscious company
https://spacenews.com/op-ed-time-to-clear-the-air-about-launch-pollution/
https://spacenews.com/op-ed-time-to-clear-the-air-about-launch-pollution/
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~10% manages ~90% of the $. Even 5% is enough to diversify the human kind, then so be it.
Better than no hedge at all.
Reminds me of :
Both Starlink and SpaceX will make Musk the first trillionaire when they go public. My guess both will be public within 2 years.
I'm glad that you know, with such unshakable certainty, what reality is; when you make a billion dollars based on this absolute knowledge, I'll be able to bask in your reflected glory and boast that I actually exchanged messages to you way back when, and produce the ET log as proof.
Meanwhile, would you mind sharing the basis for your crystal-clear vision of the future? Otherwise, everyone might think that it's just your opinion rather than reality - and we wouldn't want THAT.
(Peripheral note: I used to work for Hughes Aircraft (the Space Systems unit in Torrance), had volunteered for the NASA lunar settlement program back when Pam Alloway was in charge of it, and had lots of friends working for Rockwell/Raytheon, JPL, etc. - so I might have a small inkling about the progress and the possibilities of the industry.)
Technology always propagates in stages; I believe it was Jared Diamond who quantified it roughly like this: "first, it is nearly impossible and available only to the wealthiest; next, it is difficult and merely expensive; last, it is so common that no one can imagine it not existing."
I'm quite a buff of the history of technology, and in my experience, the span between the first and the last stage tends to be about 20 years - and rapidly getting shorter as time goes on.
You can't know that. It's all about costs and right now, the majority of costs in launching a re-usable rocket is staffing. It only costs a couple hundred thousand in fuel costs to launch a rocket, but due to safety regulations and having to have 1000s of people to ensure a launch goes smoothly and according to guidelines costs 10s of millions. Once we get a lot of that stuff automated and relaxed regulations and of course a rocket big enough for a couple hundred people, I imagine people might be able to go to space for $10k per ticket maybe less.
Unless of course the flat earthers are right and it's all a hoax and there's really a big dome keeping us in, then you're right...no "non-elite" will ever get to go up there.
Would need ways for converting unknown stuff at unknown places into living conditions.
Otherwise it's just very expensive tourism that taxpayer or consumer has to fund.
Still hustling with rockets , is is not possible to fool gravity with quantum mechanics or the rabbithole goes even deeper?
Otherwise it's just very expensive tourism that taxpayer or consumer has to fund.
Still hustling with rockets , is is not possible to fool gravity with quantum mechanics or the rabbithole goes even deeper?
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