How much further do you think house prices will drop?

[thesharpone]

What was the maximum fall last year, like 6% or something?

I think this year another 8% or so, next year 4%, and that is pretty much it.

I don't buy something like this chart, specially not for cities outside CA:

this is a funny post:

http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/tag/analysis

 

[Adobian]

Business week says another 25% drop from here.


Bottom in 2012 is very much like it.


Not many could realize this: Those who lose out this time, they get either wiped out or burdened with debts, and it'll take at least 10 years to get back in the game again. Stress, fear, emotional problems along the way.

 

[thesharpone]

I can't find the numbers on households vs homes.

any links?

 

[thesharpone]

like this chart, it's a weird one

cause you have population which has increased by 466%

home building cost by 161%

and home prices by 185%

that doesn't really show a bubble, only inflation

 

[nazzdack]

The "red line" needs to retrace the entire bull market advance from ~185 down to ~120. We'll see.

 

[pitz]

These things *always* overshoot to the underside, just like the upside. Just like oil stocks were ridiculously undervalued in 2000 -- why won't houses be ridiculously undervalued in 2012, or whenever your chart shows that real prices may drop to fundamentals.

An entire generation of people, going forward, are going to realize that real estate is an 'investment' for losers, and avoid it.

Personally, I bet that houses will revert to levels that are far below the 'fundamentals', just like those oil stocks in 2000.

 

[Smart Money]

Quote from pitz:

These things *always* overshoot to the underside, just like the upside. Just like oil stocks were ridiculously undervalued in 2000 -- why won't houses be ridiculously undervalued in 2012, or whenever your chart shows that real prices may drop to fundamentals.

An entire generation of people, going forward, are going to realize that real estate is an 'investment' for losers, and avoid it.

Personally, I bet that houses will revert to levels that are far below the 'fundamentals', just like those oil stocks in 2000.

Houses aren't stocks. Generally, if prices are lower than what you owe, you try not to sell. Not so with stocks. Also, generally when you sell a house, you buy another one. Can you imagine how the stock market would do if there were always new people buying stocks all the time and nobody cashed out?

SM

 

[thecalip]

I don't know about other area, in NYC, I have see any drop at all. In the matter of fact, price for many neighborhood actually going up.

 

[balda]

Quote from Smart Money:

Houses aren't stocks. Generally, if prices are lower than what you owe, you try not to sell. Not so with stocks. Also, generally when you sell a house, you buy another one. Can you imagine how the stock market would do if there were always new people buying stocks all the time and nobody cashed out?

SM

Can you do dollar cost averaging with housing?

 

[Longhorns]

Quote from thecalip:

I don't know about other area, in NYC, I have see any drop at all. In the matter of fact, price for many neighborhood actually going up.

The strongest markets are always the last to fall...but they will (and I believe they are starting to).

Wall St. sets the tone for Manhattan RE prices. Banks and brokerages are downsizing quickly. Bonuses for all but the top % are low or non existant. Foriegn buyers will pick up some slack, but no way can they stop the inevitable drop. I wouldn't touch anything in NYC or the surrounding areas.

Edit-- Gasparino just announced Lehman is cutting 10% of it's workforce and Merrill will announce "substantial layoffs" (again).

= The NYC RE drop is gathering momentum.