How much do you aspire to make per year trading

[savoir]

Trust me when I say this. The above scenario will never, ever happen again, ever.

Which scenario? The first or the second? Or do you mean neither can happen?

I think a post-1989 Japan scenario is possible—interest rates back to zero, or near zero, or negative; QE; expanded QE to include equity ETFs either directly or by proxy. That is, the Fed may follow the BOJ post-bubble playbook.

***
Hell, since the market reopened an hour ago, we already have a 10-point range in ES.

And your point is?

 

[newwurldmn]

I'm guessing you don't understand how to compute daily standard deviation properly or don't know what it means. Either that or you are full of shit, because the chances of you having a sharpe over 120 are about the same chances as me being the queen of England.

your magesty, he is totally not full of shit. I mean he’s clearly the greatest trader of all time.

say hi to Meghan for me.

 

[Overnight]

Which scenario? The first or the second? Or do you mean neither can happen?

The scenario of 4-5 point daily ranges in ES. That is what will never happen again, ever.

 

[savoir]

The scenario of 4-5 point daily ranges in ES. That is what will never happen again, ever.

Okay, but that wasn’t a scenario in my post.

I was looking back to days of 2 to 4 points ES as intraday profit segments. I don’t know how you extrapolate 4 to 5 point daily ranges from that.

They were more like 10-20 point daily ranges.

 

[Overnight]

Okay, but that wasn’t a scenario in my post.

I was looking back to days of 2 to 4 points ES as intraday profit segments. I don’t know how you extrapolate 4 to 5 point daily ranges from that.

They were more like 10-20 point daily ranges.

Ahh, I thought you meant 4-5 point daily ranges. I do not know what "profit segments" are. I can extrapolate that you mean that to be extracting 4-5 points out of a 10-20 point range.

Well, 10-20 point ranges are also gone forever. Did you notice the 80-point range today? Or was it 100 from top to bottom? I cannot recall, as my trading machine is shut down.

 

[savoir]

Ahh, I thought you meant 4-5 point daily ranges. I do not know what "profit segments" are. I can extrapolate that you mean that to be extracting 4-5 points out of a 10-20 point range.

Well, 10-20 point ranges are also gone forever. Did you notice the 80-point range today? Or was it 100 from top to bottom? I cannot recall, as my trading machine is shut down.

Profit segments are the things between market turns. A typical day has at least 20 of them. Typical days are not trend days.

The reason intraday trading is so unbelievably easy currently is because the profit segments are outsized. Catching the turns precisely is unnecessary. The middle portion of segments frequently runs at least 8 points. Notice I said middle portion, not end to end.

In my experience, these conditions do not last but a few years. If they continue forever as you confidently state, I will be a happy man. Not even forever, I expect to be doing this for only another 20 years or so if I stay healthy.

 

[Overnight]

...

In my experience, these conditions do not last but a few years. If they continue forever as you confidently state, I will be a happy man. Not even forever, I expect to be doing this for only another 20 years or so if I stay healthy.

Trust me, you will be a happy man. Yes, we will have outlier days where the markets go *burp* and move nigh. But the typical ranges you see today are now the norm, not the outliers. as opposed to days in the past where these high-range days were the outliers. I have full confidence in that prediction.

 

[Lustrous]

More than enough to cover my daily expenses and my travels.

 

[Laissez Faire]

I'm not sure. The best way I can put it is that I just kept removing more and more complexity until the very simplest strategy remained.

KISS, baby.

Is it also possible that what you once considered complex became simple through experience?

I feel that way if I try to talk with someone unliterate in trading just like I do if I were to discuss basic math with someone who doesn't understand basic math or whatever other subject it is.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Trust me, you will be a happy man. Yes, we will have outlier days where the markets go *burp* and move nigh. But the typical ranges you see today are now the norm, not the outliers. as opposed to days in the past where these high-range days were the outliers. I have full confidence in that prediction.

Why do you have full confidence in that? I think you're right, though.

Another key element is that due to the current index nominal values even a slower day still have a lot of points to offer, i.e., 1 % change on ES 1000 = 10 points while 1 % change on ES 4000 = 40 points. So, even if the dust should settle I imagine we'd still have nice tradeable action at these levels.