Quote from SK0:
Jack, the hardest part for me, using merely ES P V data set, is to understand the volume peak is coming soon and later know it is over but not too late to catch.
The information I provided to you included and surrounded your quest.
Specifically and pointedly, you are asking about two events in the order of events: the turn at point 2 and the turn at the FTT.
In CW parlance this is the turn that begins a retrace and the turn that begins a reversal.
In terms of trading tools, to be certain of this moment of a turn, the commonly used tools include the PRV, The DOM walls, and the Stretch/ Squeeze.
For you, to know it is coming soon is one part and to know the turn is over but not too late is the other part. Part one and part two.
My most recent print that demonstrated live trading with respect to this was done for the open on the 02OCT09. There you see the timing for part one and part two of your quest.
The entry, over two seconds, took place AFTER I was informed of peaking volume on the bar. The bar began 41 seconds BEFORE the trade was taken at which time a reversal was beginning.
Let me note what a reversal is. It is the beginning of overlap of two trends and the reversal goes through a volume minimum and then becomes an increasing volume dominant trending that begins a new trend after the end of the overlap.
In this case, as posted as a print, you see the word BUY and that means I have done MADA on the bar over a 41 second period. My Analysis was simply that the peaking volume gave a beginning of a reversal and so I decided to take advantage of the situation.
As jem states and mandelbrot backs up, they saw the print on 02OCT09 and did not mentally process it in the context of the thread containing the post: namely, posting records of time and sales of trades in regards, specifically, to P&L's. The print simply shows how money is made continually and I stated 11 aspects of that in that thread along with the print. It was, in effect, a statement of the Effectiveness and Efficiency of trading as I do trading.
You can also see that is was a set of partial fills in that several rows of the sheet happened rapidly over a short time in a specific sequence available in the public record in several locations under the heading of the record of T&S.
Another part one type thing occurred at 9:54:22 on that print. It was a point 2 trade to take advantage of the profits made during a retrace from the beginng of the retrace to the end of the retrace. Look for the words: SELL SHORT. Again, partial fills occurred due to the nature of the filling of market orders that exceed a simple single fill. This also demonstrates the nature of the second chance aspect or as you state:" knowing it is not too late". In this case, later, I opened a trade at a better price than my prior exit a few minutes before at 9:48:08 and :09. Look at the T&S record and verify this as part of your effort to learn.
So I posted both examples of peak turns in my last print posted on 02OCT09 in a forum that deals with trading to make money in a timely fashion.
If I entered on peaks to take either a reversal or a retrace, letâs look at the exits of these trades. The exit on a reversal is also on a peak. The exit on a retrace is on a trough. Both begin on volume peaks. In terms of price annotation a reversal begins within a container and a retrace begins on the LTL. This is how at the moment of beginning for each of these, you ABSOLUTELY know which is which.
Your question is informative. It tells us all where you are in trading knowledge and skills. My response was unsatisfactory to you as you pointed out. That may be normal for most learners. Learners want answers and this certainly slows down learning for them.
Non learners are in a different place as amply demonstrated by lindq, jem and mandelbrot.
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