How much did it take to become more or less consistent for you?
- Thread starter prj
- Start date
So did you quit your day job and go live after 2008?
This really is tough industry so I don't understand those who think they can do it part time -> winning consistently.
Well there is always someone who can but how many F1 drivers you know and what is your probability to be one of those. It's better to try to earn your living by driving a bus
Not such a bad idea.This really is tough industry so I don't understand those who think they can do it part time -> winning consistently.
Well there is always someone who can but how many F1 drivers you know and what is your probability to be one of those. It's better to try to earn your living by driving a bus
Yes, sounds like management BS but you really should focus on the process not the outcomes. The outcome, profitability, is hugely influenced by luck. You can be doing the right thing and still not make money for quite long periods of time. For example on fundseeder I'm ranked something like 20th out of X thousand traders (should probably be higher but there is a flaw in their standard deviation estimate which they've refused to fix) but my account was flat for 2.5 years; from mid 2016 to early 2019. The very best trader on FS still has occasional periods of 3 consective losing months (although he/she does have a short gamma profile, with occassional large losses)
Aspiring to Goldman Sachs like levels of consistent profitability as an individual trader is massively unrealistic, and will probably lead you to do very stupid things. But I've banged that particular drum often enough.
OK so if we define consistent as a consistent process, and we put aside my career in the industry (which was about 20% discretionary, and 80% systematic), then I effectively spent my time as an amateur investor and trader gradually becoming more consistent over a period of nearly 20 years. Then when I went full time in 2013 I was trading systematically within 6 months, but it took me a couple of years to properly. And I have a lot of prior experience and knowledge compared to someone starting from scracth.
You can start trading with a consistent process from scratch if you follow someone elses methodology (there have been some good books written about this... hint), but to develop your own will take longer - I would say between 1 and 5 years.
GAT
From the beginning it took years of watching, researching and studying PA from hundred of screenshots that I captured at the end of everyday on my laptop. It consumed a lot of efforts but a couple of day and swing trading patterns eventually emerged. It then took me few more years to refine these patterns to ensure they carry high win rates and low risks. In recent years I began to printed out those patterns and compared with real market action while trading live. I continued to refine these printout screenshots over the years and you could tell that my binder was getting full. Once I became satisfied with what I found, I laminated the screenshots of these patterns for good. At this stage I still reprint and laminate these patterns after minor improvements over the years.
Presently all I do everyday is to compare these screenshots with real market action and trade like a machine without 2nd guessing anything. Voila!
P.S. one thing for certain is that if many of you were able to obverse the whole process and years that I spent to get to this so-called profitable day trader you will just shake your head and find a professional job to get paid while having a lot of free time to enjoy your life.
Presently all I do everyday is to compare these screenshots with real market action and trade like a machine without 2nd guessing anything. Voila!
P.S. one thing for certain is that if many of you were able to obverse the whole process and years that I spent to get to this so-called profitable day trader you will just shake your head and find a professional job to get paid while having a lot of free time to enjoy your life.
So did you quit your day job and go live after 2008?
i did
Pressed post too early, then didn't edit until too late:
Then when I went full time in 2013 I was trading systematically within 6 months, but it took me a couple of years to properly systematise by investing process. And I have a lot of prior experience and knowledge compared to someone starting from scracth.
Also forgot to add the #1 guy on FS (who remember, can still lose money 3 months straight and certaingly isn't profitable every single week) is making a massive 5.9% a year on ~$350K eg $20k a year. So this may not be a scalable strategy that you could pursue full time and make a living from. More scalable strategies will be less profitable and tend to lose money more often.
GAT
GAT
Since I developed my own methodology (which is discretionary and volume-based) I can finish most days/weeks on the positive side, took me about 8 months to develop it and roughly three months to use it "fluently". I'm still fixing some psychological issues though, but the system works great and consistently.
However, I only trade a couple of markets (EUR/USD spot and USD/BRL futures) and my sole focus is short-term moves. I don't rely on statistical patterns nor indicators, just plain old tape reading - accumulation, distribution, markup/down and the influence of macro forces.
My understanding is that you should worry about understanding market action - that is, how market agents generate price movements -- rather than price action, which is often and easily manipulated (directly and indirectly) by market agents as they seek to fulfill their interests (much like everyone else in the market). Once you get that and start to develop a rationale for analyzing what's going on (e.g. who's buying where and how much for how long), things tend to get rather simpler.
However, if you rely on statistically repeatable patterns or pure price action, consistency is not really up to you but rather the markets on which you operate and how often they'll generate the expected outcome.
EDIT: on that note, do bear in mind that markets are not exactly like casinos, in the sense that you have a defined set of rules for operating and that defines an edge which is more or less stable over time. In any given game you play in the casino, you have a fixed set of possible outcomes and variables, whereas in the markets you can never account for the full range of factors that play into price movement. For instance, the casino always has an edge on the roulette because it has a fixed amount of variables (numbers and colors); the markets are more like a 10 color roulette, in which unpredictable numbers appear, the number of balls is constantly shifting, the colours randomly shift position, etc. That is why statistically repeatable and relevant patterns are pretty hard to come by, and harder still to remain relevant over longer periods (there are exceptions, obviously).
However, I only trade a couple of markets (EUR/USD spot and USD/BRL futures) and my sole focus is short-term moves. I don't rely on statistical patterns nor indicators, just plain old tape reading - accumulation, distribution, markup/down and the influence of macro forces.
My understanding is that you should worry about understanding market action - that is, how market agents generate price movements -- rather than price action, which is often and easily manipulated (directly and indirectly) by market agents as they seek to fulfill their interests (much like everyone else in the market). Once you get that and start to develop a rationale for analyzing what's going on (e.g. who's buying where and how much for how long), things tend to get rather simpler.
However, if you rely on statistically repeatable patterns or pure price action, consistency is not really up to you but rather the markets on which you operate and how often they'll generate the expected outcome.
EDIT: on that note, do bear in mind that markets are not exactly like casinos, in the sense that you have a defined set of rules for operating and that defines an edge which is more or less stable over time. In any given game you play in the casino, you have a fixed set of possible outcomes and variables, whereas in the markets you can never account for the full range of factors that play into price movement. For instance, the casino always has an edge on the roulette because it has a fixed amount of variables (numbers and colors); the markets are more like a 10 color roulette, in which unpredictable numbers appear, the number of balls is constantly shifting, the colours randomly shift position, etc. That is why statistically repeatable and relevant patterns are pretty hard to come by, and harder still to remain relevant over longer periods (there are exceptions, obviously).
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1 to 5 years is probably an understatement to reach consistency, even some people could possibly do that, but to achieve true consistency, it probably takes much longer, from what I read at ET, around 10 years would be a norm, though again there is no guarantee even if you are smart and working hard and 20 or 30 years passed people are still struggling in the consistency arena.
Yes, consistency can mean a lot of things: consistent profit, that would mean you are net positive by a fixed period of time, either weekly, monthly or yearly; just measured by different ways, also determined by what level of complexity of the operation. Consistency can also mean the functions of systems or a set of indicators or algos perform in a repeatable and reproducible fashion in different market conditions.
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