Quote from EquityGuy4321:
Here is the answer to the meaning of life, as far as FX goes:
Listen close...
From any given price you can effectively assume that the next 20-40 pips are random. "How can you make such an audacious statement?", people are no doubt now asking.
Consider the sheer size of the market, as well as the number of monster players. XYZ fund comes in and deals in 250MM Euro (not an extremely chunky amount), a few more funds follow behind, pushes the market up 15 pips, and everything is 20 pips lower a few minutes later when these buyers are gone. This happens all day, every day! So, when a large fund or bank prop desk takes a position, 90% of the time their stops are at least 20-40 pips away.
And so, this is why most everyone who trades FX on a retail basis loses. Can a $2000 levered account survive a 30 pip drawdown? Or, think about it this way: when you have to pay a 3 or 4 pip spread, how can you expect to make 5 pips consistently?
This whole FX retail nonsense is one of the the worst things to happen to the markets. At least in equities limits to leverage give you a fighting chance to make it with a small stake.
I'm sure there will be people that will reply saying that they turned $2k into $1MM. I won't respond to anyone other than to say:
1. I don't believe you.
2. But, in any given distribution there exist outliers. There the many less outliers in FX than in equities (where there are few as well) for the reasons given above.
Good luck.