how much can this position make ?

T

thigle

PLEASE HELP !!!
i have the following SPX puts
(strike, number of puts, price i bought for):

mar2016
700 10 0,40
900 6 0,40
1000 13 1,00
1200 2 1,95
1275 3 2,75
1320 3 3,50
1400 5 4,90

jun2016
700 10 0,90
1000 4 3,00
1200 2 7,00
1300 1 7,85
1600 2 37,2

sept2016
650 3 1,12
800 10 2,78

jan2017
700 6 2,00
1000 2 10,00

i dont know how to count where my possible profit is.
i have different ideas,
and i know i want to close the position when VIX will jump over aug. highs.

if i take for exemple vega of these puts,
and suppose VIX will break through its aug2015 tops by 1.272 or 1.618 extension (therefore going to 64 and 78),
then it seems for ex. the June 1600 strike put should be higher by its vega x difference between VIX now and then ?
so if now at 27 and we jump to 64, this put should grow by 3 x (64-27) = 3 x 37 = 114 ?!?

why i am asking is because supposing another descent in sp500,
and ascent in VIX,
the numbers i am getting are showing i could get over 500k from these puts that i bought for around 15k !!!

am i crazy ?
is my math wrong ?
or is it wrong the wrong way and i can cash even more on these puts if we fall to 1570 soon ?

please help, i dont want to screw this up,
dont want to wait for profit that can never come,
but also dont want to tak less than i can !

how fast how deep would it have to fall with what VIX
to make these puts into 1.000.000 ?
 
The values above are incorrect, correct the entries and try again. (pasting between incompatible applications -- try copying values from a plain text source) For example, the first PUT referenced above implies you own "10 0"? March 2016 700 strike puts and you paid $40 each for them. At a minimum you have a missing decimal points. -- 40 cents is last value on that strike. Also suspect the qty may be in error.
 
i dunno but i see it clearly on my screen from 2 different conputers and 1 tablet, it shows correctly:
mar2016
700 10 0,40
meaning march 2016,
strike 700
10 puts for 0,40 each
 
Thinking in terms on when you can pull out a million is probably the most counter productive thought process you could have.

If your in IBKR, look at Risk Navigator to figure out your aggregate exposures. And then decide how much of an exposure you can carry going forward. Hopefully, you can carry the position forward to higher levels of profitability and not choke.

Believe me when I tell you that you won't be THE guy who sells at Vix 50. Maybe 45, :D

There's going to be a lot of coulda, shoulda, woulda after you take profit since you apparently didn't think things out before you layered this position.
 
Im willing to take a wild guess and say if the sp500 hits 900 you'll be rich. Don't think anyone is going to do the maths for you.

If you wanted a real black swan trade you could load up on cheap spy calls betting on a sharp up move.

The time to buy puts was when the sp was at high 1900s before a thought of a crash or bear market entered anyones head.

Loading up on the right puts then could have netted you hundreds of thousands maybe even a million.
 
Dude, come on... If you're serious about trading options, take 5 minutes out of your life and download a trading software. Plug in your positions and you'll have it all in front of you with all the details you need.

If 5 minutes of work is too much for you, it really begs the question why you're trading options in the first place.

You have puts. If the S&P goes down significantly, you MIGHT make money. If you want to know how much and at what price and vol levels, put in the 5 minutes of work and find out.


How did you even open the positions in the first place??? What kind of ghetto brokerage firm has software that lets you purchase options but doesn't have a position analyzer?

This thread is disturbing on so many levels.....
 
He probably already is rich. He would not have bought those lotto tickets if they weren't minuscule in proportion to his portfolio and insuring like Taleb. But then, this is ET.
 
guys, i bought those above spx 1900.
i am not so rich as someone here propose,
but i dont mind if i lose all these premiums,
thats what is total risk for me.

as for the smart ass VTS, who asks how could i open that,
or why i didnt spend 5 minutes and download trading software that analyses this,
well i tried, for ex. to download TOS, but cannot without an account and no possible in Europe.
etc.

if it was easy i would ask, ok ?

actually i tried hard.
i tried many online options calculators, from Optionistics to many others,
but seem very imprecise.
i read many books on options, last one i am chewing through is
Taleb: Dynamic Hedging.
its not easy for me.

so dont be an asshole, i asked for help,
if you got nothing to offer,
then better be quiet.

brokerage i use is SaxoBank and my software is SaxoTrader.
there is no position analyser :(

AND if it really takes just 5 minutes with Position Analyser,
i thought someone who has such a software can do that for me and help.

thank you.
 
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