Bull markets grind higher.
They generally don't explode higher. But when they correct, they tend to fall much faster than they rise.
Exact inverse for bear markets.
They generally don't explode lower - and when they make upside corrections, they rise much faster than they fall.
Assume we are in a bull market - The market then proceeds to correct lower. If the market makes up it's losses in more than twice the time it takes for it to fall, then it's a bull...Based on this assumption being true (I have no backtesting to prove it), then we can prove when a market is in true trend mode...
Bull markets that make panicky parabolic rises are the final stages of a bull market (e.g Wheat - rogue trader - Man panicks - BS blowup)
inverse for bear markets
Bear markets that make waterfall selloffs are in the final stages of a bear market.
Markets need a catalyzing event to make a meaningful final parabolic rise or waterfall dump.
This is not always the case, but I am thinking about examples like cocoa traders burning their crops or hog farmers letting loose the pigs on city hall...that's an event that can mark the end of a long, tedious trend.
Just some random thoughts...
They generally don't explode higher. But when they correct, they tend to fall much faster than they rise.
Exact inverse for bear markets.
They generally don't explode lower - and when they make upside corrections, they rise much faster than they fall.
Assume we are in a bull market - The market then proceeds to correct lower. If the market makes up it's losses in more than twice the time it takes for it to fall, then it's a bull...Based on this assumption being true (I have no backtesting to prove it), then we can prove when a market is in true trend mode...
Bull markets that make panicky parabolic rises are the final stages of a bull market (e.g Wheat - rogue trader - Man panicks - BS blowup)
inverse for bear markets
Bear markets that make waterfall selloffs are in the final stages of a bear market.
Markets need a catalyzing event to make a meaningful final parabolic rise or waterfall dump.
This is not always the case, but I am thinking about examples like cocoa traders burning their crops or hog farmers letting loose the pigs on city hall...that's an event that can mark the end of a long, tedious trend.
Just some random thoughts...
