How Many Years of Positive Results?

hilmy83 said:
Yes. Tested on 1 NQ contract. Volatility was really low back in those years. Would've probably traded 2-3 contracts back then to make it worthwhile.

But the strategy was profitable.

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Am I slow or you don't make any sense here. Nothing you said makes sense to me based on what you presented bro. You lost money literally 6 years straight in a very bullish market.
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Hello hilmy83,

Well done buddy. I like that.

For some reason, I can not get my trading ideas/strategies to make money year to year from 2006 to 2018 in back test. They either lost money those years, or make very small profits. I am the same boat as @gaz0001. Tuff decision

Good to see someone has an algo that make money year to year. VERY GOOD actually.
I back test from 2006 to 2024.
 
SimpleMeLike said:
Hello hilmy83,

Well done buddy. I like that.

For some reason, I can not get my trading ideas/strategies to make money year to year from 2006 to 2018 in back test. They either lost money those years, or make very small profits. I am the same boat as @gaz0001. Tuff decision

Good to see someone has an algo that make money year to year. VERY GOOD actually.
I back test from 2006 to 2024.
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I don't know why, but it ONLY works on the nasdaq apparently. I ran it live in my journal on different markets starting in Jan 2023 (dow,rus, sp, oil, gold, dax), everything failed at some point except nasdaq. So switched to 100% nasdaq after that.


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gaz0001 said:
Hey Guys,

I have created an algo, and have been working on for about a week. Testing largely, because it just showed great results right off the bat.

I largely used my trading experiences from 2023 to develop it.
I did not optimise it, i simply tested it on weekly, monthly then yearly data. It performed fantastic for 2023 and 2024 data.

I extended the backtest for multiple years, and found that it was not good 2012 - 2018.

So, i have to the question - how many years of data are relevant for a daytrading algo?


Below is annual net profit, and monthly net profit.
Essentially, if i had launched this since 2019, i would of not needed to switch it off. I could handle the drawdown of the bad months.
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But to answer your question, I would just run the strategy live and see what happens. In fact, I ran my strategy after just 3 years of backtest 2020-2022. Wasn't much later I got access to more historical data to backtest it +10 years.
 
SimpleMeLike said:
Hello danielc1,

We will never know the amount of people, but I think alot people have positive outcome.
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I wish everyone succes, I really do. But it is not my experience that a person with a backtest get the results as a trader. I think many, many people get fooled trough backtest as if that would represent the reality how a system or trading method would behave in een real life environment
 
gaz0001 said:
Hey Guys,

I have created an algo, and have been working on for about a week. Testing largely, because it just showed great results right off the bat.

I largely used my trading experiences from 2023 to develop it.
I did not optimise it, i simply tested it on weekly, monthly then yearly data. It performed fantastic for 2023 and 2024 data.

I extended the backtest for multiple years, and found that it was not good 2012 - 2018.

So, i have to the question - how many years of data are relevant for a daytrading algo?


Below is annual net profit, and monthly net profit.
Essentially, if i had launched this since 2019, i would of not needed to switch it off. I could handle the drawdown of the bad months.
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View attachment 335538
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I know what it's like to try to convince OPM to invest with you.... experienced that myself, years back.

If I were to consider hiring you to manage my money today, I'd want to see audited performance from 2018 forward. Why so long? Because there were "huge dips", followed by big rallies... and I'd want to see how you handled both.

Making money in an "up" market is one thing. Protecting assets in a down market is another.

If you're trying to "make it on your own without sponsorship", you've got a tough hill to climb.

Suggest building an audit-able track record before looking for money to invest with you.

Wish you good luck.
 
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danielc1 said:
I wonder how many people do a backtest and then start trading with a positive outcome.
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I did. At least until today.

@GAZ: you.will.never.know. A strategy could have worked 100 years (figuratively) and stop working today. It can work only since 1 year, but will be profitable the next decade. There comes a point you have to jump into pool and position sizing/ money management is your safety net. Adjust for max expected drawdown X factor x(eg 1.5)

Embrace uncertainty, with your parachute
 
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Zwaen said:
I did. At least until today.

@GAZ: you.will.never.know. A strategy could have worked 100 years (figuratively) and stop working today. It can work only since 1 year, but will be profitable the next decade. There comes a point you have to jump into pool and position sizing/ money management is your safety net. Adjust for max expected drawdown X factor x(eg 1.5)
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Agree!!!
 
Scataphagos said:
I know what it's like to try to convince OPM to invest with you.... experienced that myself, years back.

If I were to consider hiring you to manage my money today, I'd want to see audited performance from 2018 forward. Why so long? Because there were "huge dips", followed by big rallies... and I'd want to see how you handled both.

Making money in an "up" market is one thing. Protecting assets in a down market is another.

If you're trying to "make it on your own without sponsorship", you've got a tough hill to climb.

Suggest building an audit-able track record before looking for money to invest with you.

Wish you good luck.
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What would be more important to me, in that hypothetical case, would be to know all the parameters and logic behind the method. But this phenomenon is well know in ML/AI, would you trade the ‘black box’?
 
I use to backtest over 10 years of tick data then forward test for 6 months. Then trade one lot, adding contracts as account grew.

Now I don't backtest much and go straight into month of forward testing.

Basically two types of trading, wait for price to come to support/resistance or breakouts.
Targets/Risk are many points and small risk produce usually smaller winning percentages. The other is smaller targets and larger risk providing winning percentages are high.
There is a blend if seldom of the mean losing trades occur, next trade target whatever you lost.

But here is the difference between now and when I was a tadpole, been trading 46 years gone by. I know what works for me.
 
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