This is probably a bad place to ask this question - traders tend not to be the most 'connected' people to the rest of the world - you focus on the markets day in and out, you know? See threads in psychology dealing with lonliness, girlfriend/wife issues, etc..
In my affluent area, through my church, I know many people are facing significant financial crises.
Buddy of mine is an civil engineer, now a stay at home dad. 18months out of work, no prospects in his field.
Another buddy is a builder. Little work beyond the occasional home improvement gig.
Wife of another guy is facing finanical ruin due to the housing crash and a mortgage they can't afford.
My close buddy in town was subjected to a 30% pay cut, and then forced to take less desirable work assignments that pay less due to seniority rules. I estimate he is earning 30% less than last year with some additional teaching work he does.
Even among the working survivors, there is a pervasive fear of job loss. A theme that seems to be cropping up is if you lose your job, the next one you find will be at 50% of your former salary. Nobody I know is buying new cars or living it up except for the 20 somethings who have no kids and relatively no debt.
On the other hand, people with wealth are swooping in and buying upper end real estate with cash or mostly cash ($500-1.50mio price range). Is it a bottom or just the next wave of speculators who are going to get hosed? (I favor the latter). Can't tell, but in my area, further housing price declines are expected - there is a large wave of foreclosures building into January. I think these people are early, but am not as sure of that prediction as I have been in the past of others.
Yes, I do see people out and spending again. But the things they are buying are smaller items. Is it stabilization? I don't know. Maybe temporary, maybe something else. Time will tell.
I would suspect every person on this board with an ounce of experience is going to be looking very closely at data in Spring of '10.
I know I will.
In my affluent area, through my church, I know many people are facing significant financial crises.
Buddy of mine is an civil engineer, now a stay at home dad. 18months out of work, no prospects in his field.
Another buddy is a builder. Little work beyond the occasional home improvement gig.
Wife of another guy is facing finanical ruin due to the housing crash and a mortgage they can't afford.
My close buddy in town was subjected to a 30% pay cut, and then forced to take less desirable work assignments that pay less due to seniority rules. I estimate he is earning 30% less than last year with some additional teaching work he does.
Even among the working survivors, there is a pervasive fear of job loss. A theme that seems to be cropping up is if you lose your job, the next one you find will be at 50% of your former salary. Nobody I know is buying new cars or living it up except for the 20 somethings who have no kids and relatively no debt.
On the other hand, people with wealth are swooping in and buying upper end real estate with cash or mostly cash ($500-1.50mio price range). Is it a bottom or just the next wave of speculators who are going to get hosed? (I favor the latter). Can't tell, but in my area, further housing price declines are expected - there is a large wave of foreclosures building into January. I think these people are early, but am not as sure of that prediction as I have been in the past of others.
Yes, I do see people out and spending again. But the things they are buying are smaller items. Is it stabilization? I don't know. Maybe temporary, maybe something else. Time will tell.
I would suspect every person on this board with an ounce of experience is going to be looking very closely at data in Spring of '10.
I know I will.
