How Many Traders Wager on Sports?
- Thread starter wallnbroad
- Start date
No I simply doubt that he made a greater than 60% return ATS last year playing the NFL all season. Simple as that.
basketball, baseball, hockey, cricket, tennis, world cup soccer - college and pro.
from sport to sport, there is no difference to me. just like trading - all markets behave the same way because the participants are the same.
the behavior of the lines on any given day fall into several categories for me:
some are right on
some are a little off
some are way off
a few are "OMG - who set this line"?
i only bet on the last one. they seem to come up very often.
i did 68% winners (35-16) ATS in the NFL including the playoffs, so i know it's possible. i didn't think that was great until i saw some research done on sportsbetting, and it seems like only 1 in 100,000 people can go > 60% ATS. i thought the number would be way higher than that.
i checked around just to get a feel for accurate this is, and most of the old timers agreed that number is about right. they said in their lifetime they thought they were good, but they probably have extracted at most 100x bet size in any one season.
they also said it is the inability for them to follow their system 100% is what caused their win rate to drop.
if you run a really good box and run it really hard, sports is a great way to go because you can get the exact position size.
i like MLB and NHL a lot more because the run line and puck line pay so much more for -1.5 runs or -1.5 goals.
1) I did not say it was impossible. I simply said that I doubted that he did it.
2) I too am a fan of the run line. It's much more intuitive. And less followed.
2) I too am a fan of the run line. It's much more intuitive. And less followed.
Really excellent handicappers will get you above 60% winners with close to 1 : 1 payoff.
That works out to about a 40% edge, certainly worthwhile in the trading world...
Quote from killthesunshine:
why is it assumed that a trader is also gambler
Not assuming. There are simply large parallels...both can be done profitably with a robust and back-tested system.
There seems to be some confusion about my response to Kassz007's question. He asked what did I consider a good winning percentage and I said >60%. I never claimed >60% personally, although I was aware that my stats for the past two years have been around that.
Just to check, I pulled up last year's thread. I was 16-11, when I had to stop due to some pressing issues that just didn't give me the time to do the thread justice. That's a 59% win percentage.
Just to check, I pulled up last year's thread. I was 16-11, when I had to stop due to some pressing issues that just didn't give me the time to do the thread justice. That's a 59% win percentage.
