How many points is reasonable?

Quote from logic_man:

It's called simplification to make a point.

How many traders do you think make $130K/year on a single ES contract?

That's the relevant issue, not whether or not I assume 20 point range days every day (I don't, that's just an average over a year to make the math easy to follow. I'm not going to do a day-by-day analysis, obviously).

I'm not more interested in being right than making money, I'm interested in discussing possibilities grounded in reality, not fantasy.
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It doesn't matter to me "how many traders make X". IN REALITY it shouldn't matter to anyone, but apparently it does. BIG MISTAKE!! HUGE!!

For the record, I do not trade ES. And I very seldom make single contract trades. Been trading futs since '94, Started as a swinger. Full time since '02, only intraday, nothing held overnight. Nowadays, TF, YM, FESX, with a daily kicker of SB and a few other commodities. I started with single contract trades.

Your FANTASY is thinking (and believing) that the trading success YOU want is not possible FOR YOU.
 
Quote from tiddlywinks:

It doesn't matter to me "how many traders make X". IN REALITY it shouldn't matter to anyone, but apparently it does. BIG MISTAKE!! HUGE!!

For the record, I do not trade ES. And I very seldom make single contract trades. Been trading futs since '94, Started as a swinger. Full time since '02, only intraday, nothing held overnight. Nowadays, TF, YM, FESX, with a daily kicker of SB and a few other commodities. I started with single contract trades.

Your FANTASY is thinking (and believing) that the trading success YOU want is not possible FOR YOU.
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Look, I'm not the person who started this thread, so it's clearly not a burning issue in my mind. Me and my trading actually have nothing to do with this thread at all. The reason I bring up "how many traders make X" and do the math on the numbers you are throwing around is because there needs to be some context to the discussion. If you think there are hundreds of thousands of traders, or even just thousands, out there making over $100K trading 1 contract (which is what your post implies should be realistic), then I would say you are simply mistaken and you don't do the OP any favors by implying it's common or realistic. Yes, many traders make that much, but not trading 1 contract. The post is called "How many points are reasonable?" not "How many points might one guy have gotten for a few weeks while he was on a hot streak?" "Reasonable" means what is possible for a typical profitable trader, not what some extreme outlier experienced over a short run.

I can't pole vault over the Grand Canyon, either, but that's not the reason I doubt anyone else can. The reason I doubt it is because it's simply not possible. Not everything in life is based on psychology, some things are just objective givens that are part of reality.
 
I now feel better about what I'm doing as I thought I may have been vastly under achieving with my present model from the feedback of: " I can pull a $1000 a day without too much effort on 1 x contract".

The person on ET who contacted me, yes I thought SCAM ALERT as well as they had only a couple of posts to their name.

The other guy, well I've known him a couple of years and he is very secretive about his system but I smell BS from him as well, but wasn't sure, hence my query on this Thread.

I'm not touting this thread to pull in inquiries, my PM's have always been disabled and I don't have the time to write code for others.
Coding is extremely time consuming and then it never ends, always trying to find something new.

I'm very impressed with the responses, thanks.
 
Quote from themickey:

I trade the SPI in Australia via a SIM account only and my system is indicating I can average around $600 per week on 1 x contract.
This after all slippage, drawdowns, commission etc.

That's around about 5 points per day.

Comparing this say with ES or any other futures index, is this reasonable or low or high by your estimations?
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$600 per week on the SPI on 1 contact is very low considering it is only 5 points ($25 per point) and the average daily range is 55 points.
 
Quote from c0l$il:

$600 per week on the SPI on 1 contact is very low considering it is only 5 points ($25 per point) and the average daily range is 55 points.
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Here we go again, back to where I started, another ET noob believes 5 points per day or 9% of the daily range is under achieving.

Tell me how many points you believe is achievable consistently on average after costs and slippage etc on 1 x contract.

Thanks.
 
Quote from themickey:

Here we go again, back to where I started, another ET noob believes 5 points per day or 9% of the daily range is under achieving.

Tell me how many points you believe is achievable consistently on average after costs and slippage etc on 1 x contract.

Thanks.
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I also trade the SPI and not in 1 lots. FYI, a noob trades in 1 lots. Don't ever put the SPI and ES in the same sentence, another noob comment. Slippage on 1 contract, is this a joke? (lot size is 1 and spread is 1). You only have comm to pay.

You are aware you are able to trade the up/down swings during the day. The market does not move in one direction. Set your goals higher than H-L as the range.

Focus on your 1 lot and stick to your $2400 per month and call your self an awesome trader.

Good luck. MATE!
 
i have traded 1 spi early on and averaged 2 pts after all expenses. I could probably now squeeze 3 and with great discipline 4. Loading meaninful size, like 10, will chop off 1 pt on average. Playing 30 will chop off another point. So you have to be able to win on average 4 with 1 contract to be able to win 2 with 30 contracts to average $750 a day. Not easy. Playing 30, have to have enough money to withstand fat finger, where you see 100 pts against you in a second.

So you need at least 200k account you prepared to lose.

enjoy.
 
Focus on what you can achieve consistently and add size as your account grows.

Assuming 250 trading days in one year, if you can net 2 ES points per day with a $10 000 account, allocating $5000 per contract, but a maximum of 100 contracts per entry, you will be trading 100 contracts after 211 days and your account value will be $895 600 after 250 days.

With half the risk, allocating $10 000 per contract you will be trading 7 contracts at the end of the year and your account value will be $73 200 at the end of the year. Still, a very impressive return.

Consistency, risk management, low drawdown and a perspective beyond the next trading day is all it takes. But that all, is quite a lot.

:)
 
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