How many points / day are you making in the ES ?

Quote from Fireplace:

It's only 'not easy' if you let it be. If you have a proven track record through different market cycles and come out the other end with an avg such as Weis there is no reason not to bump up size. People always harp on the sizing up and how it's so hard in the ES but really that's people's fear talking. And if you have a proven track record, the fear is unjustified.

If you are already profitable and consistent, sizing up is only 'hard' if the instrument you trade is thin.
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Although increasing position size isn't the topic of this thread...when a trader becomes profitable after being a losing trader...it's very difficult for them to start increasing their position size prior to gaining a proven track record in duration that equals the duration of their losing record.

For example...newbie trader gets consistent losses for 2 years and loses about 40k. Then things began making sense and he/she has been consistently profitable the recent 8 months.

Most traders in such a situation will have fear when increasing their position size. Heck...most won't try it at all. However, if that trader continues being profitable...nearing 2 years...

An equilibrium begins to develop and the fear eventually becomes manageable.

Simply, if the trader hasn't reached that equilibrium...the worst thing he can do is to increase position size. Thus, a proven track record is meaningless as a reason for increasing position size if the trader does not have enough experience to equal when he/she was a losing trader.

Yeah, it seems like mumbo jumbo but the mind is a very powerful thing...it can work for you or against you.

However, I do agree with you in that if he has a proven (profitable) track record that nears/equals the duration of the prior losing track record...he should be increasing his position size as long as he's not violating any money management rules. Also, a proven track record has different interpretation from one trader to another. Thus, his perspective of a proven track record may not equal your perspective of a proven track record (e.g. someone saids 6 months and someone else saids 3 years).

Regardless...his key words are "I'm just becoming profitable". That's not a trader that has a proven track record. Therefore, it's in his best interest to not be increasing position size at this time.

Quote from wiesman02:

...I'm just becoming profitable and plan on becoming more efficient...
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Mark
 
Quote from wiesman02:

yes. I lost $30k before I started making $. Who the hell hasn't ? Currently I'm only averaging $200-$500 / week on 1 contract. I'm posting on the PnL thread, which is more than all the jokers that are going to bash post on that thread. Increase size to say, even 4 contracts and u have an average of $800-$2000 per week. Not saying its that easy by immediately bumping from 1 to 4, but doable. My current profits are not bad, and certainly not amazing.

Yes I still struggle from pyschology and taking profits early. I'm no guru yet. And yes, i do 'get it'
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A trader on ET whom I consider my CL mentor told me to trade 1 contract and when I consistently could pull $10K a month out of it, then step up to 2 lots and learn to consistently pull $20K out of it, etc. (CL is very volatile, so I'm not sure what the equivalent monthly profit target would be with 1 contract ES.)

Trading 1 lot forces you to do one of two things: scalp for quick small profits or learn to let winners run and catch some runners.

This trains you to take only the best setups, to exercise patience and discipline, and to choose achievable profit targets.

The point is that by achieving consistent profitability trading 1 lot, you train yourself to trade at the highest level, without gimmicks or cheating (such as averaging down). Once that training is ingrained, you're prepared to size up without as much danger of blowing up, because you've learned to trade properly.
 
Well, this Weis fella is inconsistent in his evaluation of himself based on this thread right here and this thread (below):

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=194677


Quote from wrbtrader:

I think the point being made is that when a trader becomes profitable after being a losing trader...it's very difficult for them to start increasing their position size prior to gaining a track record in duration that equals the duration of their losing record.

For example...newbie trader gets consistent losses for 2 years and loses about 40k. Then things began making sense and he/she has been consistently profitable the recent 8 months.

Most traders in such a situation will have fear when increasing their position size. Heck...most won't try it at all. However, if that trader continues being profitable...nearing 2 years...

An equilibrium begins to develop and the fear eventually becomes manageable.

Simply, if the trader hasn't reached that equilibrium...the worst thing he can do is to increase position size. Thus, a proven track record is meaningless as a reason for increasing position size if the trader does not have enough experience to equal when he/she was a losing trader.

Yeah, it seems like mumbo jumbo but the mind is a very powerful thing...it can work for you or against you.

However, I do agree with you in that if he has a proven (profitable) track record that nears/equals the duration of the prior losing track record...he should be increasing his position size as long as he's not violating any money management rules. Also, a proven track record has different interpretation from one trader to another. Thus, his perspective of a proven track record may not equal your perspective of a proven track record (e.g. someone saids 6 months and someone else saids 3 years).

Regardless...his key words are "I'm just becoming profitable". That's not a trader that has a proven track record. Therefore, it's in his best interest to not be increasing position size at this time.



Mark
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I agree with the equilibrium part but do not agree it needs to equal the same amount of time spent losing. Learning should be more exponential and thus 2 yrs losing can be reversed in, say, 6 months of 'getting it'. When the lightbulb clicks there is no reason one must 'play it safe' for another 1 1/2 years just because. Life is too short.

:)
 
Quote from Fireplace:

Well, this Weis fella is inconsistent in his evaluation of himself based on this thread right here and this thread (below):

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=194677
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You do realize his trading may have dramatically changed in the recent few months. In fact, I've seen other newbies say they're making a few points per day and then months later if asked...they are now making only a few ticks per day after commission.

Thus, it doesn't seem inconsistent to me. It seems like his profit curve has declined and that it's not as easy as it was a few months ago. Heck, by end of year, he could post another thread that's completely different than these two threads only because his profit level has changed again.

Nothing unusual considering the markets is always changing. Thus, profit levels change too.

Mark
 
On page 1 of this thread (bottom post) he said he does 'get it'. If he 'gets it' he should at the very least go from 1 to 2 lots. If he finds out he does not have it then he can go back but it sounds like he needs to push the envelope a bit now.

Quote from wrbtrader:

You do realize his trading may have dramatically changed in the recent few months. In fact, I've seen other newbies say they're making a few points per day and then months later if asked...they are now making only a few ticks per day after commission.

Thus, it doesn't seem inconsistent to me. It seems like his profit curve has declined and that it's not as easy as it was a few months ago. Heck, by end of year, he could post another thread that's completely different than these two threads only because his profit level has changed again.

Nothing unusual considering the markets is always changing. Thus, profit levels change too.

Mark
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Quote from Fireplace:

On page 1 of this thread (bottom post) he said he does 'get it'. If he 'gets it' he should at the very least go from 1 to 2 lots. If he finds out he does not have it then he can go back but it sounds like he needs to push the envelope a bit now.
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Seriously, read the below quote by him that represent today's market condition and not something from a few months ago. Can you honestly tell me via your own definition of someone that has a proven track record that he has a proven track record. :confused:

Quote from wiesman02:

...I'm just becoming profitable and plan on becoming more efficient...
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He doesn't have a proven track record. Thus, why you continue saying he should increase his position size based upon your own description that he should "only" do it if he has a proven track record. Simply, do you recommend that a trader that does not have a proven track record...a trader that saids I'm just becoming profitable...to increase his/her position size?

Mark
 
Thanks for caring about me, everyone. But really, I'm fine, lol. And thanks for derailing my thread.

When I move up to 2 lots is of no concern to you all. I'm fine tuning my skills, and when I feel as if I'm ready for more, I will move up to it.

Oh, and if I had a proven track record, i'd be trading more than 1 contract. I'm just a 2.5 year rookie thats moved from steady losses, to breakeven, to small profits.

Soon as those bigger profits come, it'll be time to move on up.
 
Quote from Fireplace:

Then perhaps next time you should refrain from your 'March type' posts as that one was CLEARLY premature.

:cool:
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no, it wasnt premature. I was excited that I was making $. so sue me.
 
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