How many of you (small timeframe) traders take PA into account?

[lawrence-lugar]

Slightly off topic but what kind of ball-park percentage returns (say on a 12 month basis) do you short term traders achieve on an average market environment?

...This is for a completely new discussion thread.
But...It can, of course, Greatly...vary based on style, person, risk profile, time, market instrument, etc etc etc variables.

I myself am high risk. -- I can make, %-wise, what some people make in a year...in a week.
I personally don't like to call my strategy/profile 'high risk' though -- it sounds like I'm just blindly gambling away.

 

[marketsurfer]

Price movement [price action]: the continuous tick-by-tick (transaction-by-transaction) movement of price as shown on the tape [or on a corresponding chart].

This is what I mean by "price action". What others may mean is unknowable unless they define their terms.

Price moves in ways that are predictable to the same extent that behavior is predictable. Behavior matters because market movements are determined by behavior. If one understands the behavior of market participants, he can with a fair degree of accuracy predict where and how far price will go.

Why dont you tell the truth and admit that you have never even seen true tick data? You look at it filtered at various levels, then filtered again and distorted by bar charts. You definitely have the passion for the markets. Maybe if you would just start again from scratch you could begin to understand whats really happening. surf

 

[Fundlord]

What is unfiltered true tick data ?

I never based my trading decisions on a chart pattern per say, but its a hell of a lot easier to look at a chart than remembering prices in my head

 

[dbphoenix]

Why dont you tell the truth and admit that you have never even seen true tick data? You look at it filtered at various levels, then filtered again and distorted by bar charts. You definitely have the passion for the markets. Maybe if you would just start again from scratch you could begin to understand whats really happening. surf

Since you can't do better than a program that works only "sometimes" and "isn't consistently profitable", I suggest that you start again from scratch and learn something about how markets work.

 

[dbphoenix]

What I unfiltered true tick data ?

I never based my trading decisions on a chart pattern per say, but its a hell of a lot easier to look at a chart than remembering prices in my head

And who cares about "true" tick data anyway? Price action is a movie, not a slideshow.

 

[MrN]

One area where i might disagree with Surf is that I think that one can get a great deal out of studies done on daily bar chart data. Many of the fundamental concepts can be discovered at this time scale. I am not sure if that qualifies as "price action" or if "price action" is synonymous with naive chart patterns and momentum strategies.

 

[marketsurfer]

All one has to do is read it and trade it. If he's too afraid to take the trades, that's not the plan's fault.

Of course, one does have to know how to recognize a range. One also has to know how to recognize a trend. If he thinks ranges and trends are nonsense, the approach is not for him. But that's not the plan's problem.

Why deal with fear? Thats so 1970's. Computers dont have emotions -- why screw things up by inserting the human filter on top of the chart filter, on top of the weak data sources?

surf

Ps. If you and others who claim to be objective would just admit your trading is subjective and intuitive, i would have no argument. Its not your method since anything and everything works sometimes . Its your false presentation of it. surf

 

[dbphoenix]

Why deal with fear? Thats so 1970's. Computers dont have emotions -- why screw things up by inserting the human filter on top of the chart filter, on top of the weak data sources?

And who programs the computer?

And if computers are so superior, why does your program work only "sometimes" and "isn't consistently profitable"? Aren't your statisticians supposed to be setting the world on fire?

 

[MrN]

And who programs the computer?

And if computers are so superior, why does your program work only "sometimes" and "isn't consistently profitable"? Aren't your statisticians supposed to be setting the world on fire?

Not that it was addressed to me, but most things that work, work only sometimes. If this was not true you would lose counter parties very quickly. Consistency is usually a product of turnover.

 

[Frederick Foresight]

...Here is the problem. Data is just data...

That's not a problem, it's merely a fact. It's how you use the data that gives it the potential to become information. As in all areas of endeavor, some people are more creative and analytical than others given the same data.