God... You guys are all a bunch of idiots...
Follow the rule "Keep it simple, stupid..."
I define current trend as a 10 range breakout/breakdown and a 20 range breakout/breakdown. Confirmation signal at 15 and 25 handles.
The 20 range VERY rarely headfakes.
If you do swing trades you have to use projections and estimate the tops/bottoms and calculate them out before the turn... Because when the market turns and breaks range into the next trade cycle it will do it so fast you won't have time to react. You HAVE to be positioned before a move to catch it.
Sometimes the market will swing a little bit as it's pushing for the breakout/breakdown... But more often than not it just breaks out and beelines straight into the next trade cycle.
There are good range breakout strategies... But, It's not my type of trading. I like playing bottoms/tops or scalping cycles.
Very simple way to define current trend. There ya go!
My current analysis is that we are reaching the end of this cycle. We either turn here or 10 points higher, but I don't expect us to retrace as much as the previous times... Another 50 points down again isn't in the cards without a catalyst.
If there is no QE3 at the fed meeting at the end of the month... Sure, make it a 80 handle breakdown that trade cycle...
