How many of you got faked out today?

[ScalperJoe]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

Seriously, how do you guys trade? (the ones who complained about getting faked out today). Do you constantly survey each price(price/volume) bar to see whether sentiment is continuing or shifting? Or do you see a trend and expect that it will continue and look to short/get long on retraces? Or something else altogether?

I don't understand how experienced traders got faked out today. The ONLY time I encountered mixed signals was after 3pm. Other that that, both the big down and big up moves provided several great entries with great follow through.

I do agree that there were several great entries if you're a countertrend trader. The SPY gapped UP, then failed hard when Uncle Ben began to testify, only to rally off the bottom and break high of day.

So you either found an entry and faded the top or caught the falling knife and waited for the bottom. Either way, you won. It doesn't always work this way, hence the term "headfake."

 

[RangeTrader]

Wow... Accurately buying tops during an uptrend... But, whatever... It works during uptrend.

Whatever floats your boat... I prefer buying/shorting capitulations and covering trades into them.

Kind of a funny day as there was only ONE short term buy trade setup for me by my rules. I expected the insane volatility on the Bernanke speech. Most days have at least a few trade setups...

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

Uh, that was ONE long entry. I daytrade, so I'm in and out a lot during the day. I also got long at 11:06 and again at 11:35.

 

[RangeTrader]

So... Before anyone even talks about "counter-trend"...

First please define what you mean by it.

If your trading off a 5m I define that as buying when price is under a 20SMA and the SMA isn't angled upward.

Same for 15m, etc... Once you get to daily I define trend by engulfing reversals.


We are in a daily uptrend and a weekly neutral trend.

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

I probably trade shorter time frames than you so while you are still in a "downtrend", I'm getting a signal for a new uptrend. If it continues with force...great!

Buying/shorting capitulation works too, but like every method, you have to be on top of those critical moments otherwise you'll miss your trade.

Quote from RangeTrader:

Wow... Accurately buying tops during an uptrend... But, whatever... It works during uptrend.

Whatever floats your boat... I prefer buying/shorting capitulations and covering trades into them.

Kind of a funny day as there was only ONE short term trade setup for me by my rules. I expected the insane volatility on the Bernanke speech.

 

[athlonmank8]

How many of you know what to do for tomorrow? That's the REAL question.

Market is screaming it at you right now and you're worried about something that's completely done with.

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

No, it's not the real question. Who knows RIGHT NOW. At least that's how I approach each day. Analyze only what is presented, trade only based on my rules and leave all the rest for the pundits and jokers on ET to fight about

Quote from athlonmank8:

How many of you know what to do for tomorrow? That's the REAL question.

 

[RangeTrader]

The market is closed... Tomorrows trade is short the 15m swing highs unless vol is clocking.

Quote from athlonmank8:

How many of you know what to do for tomorrow? That's the REAL question.

Market is screaming it at you right now and you're worried about something that's completely done with.

 

[RangeTrader]

Bit more to it than this... Measuring projections, retracements...

But, this is the general plan for tomorrow. Fade swing highs. My target high resistance levels are 1369.5, and 1374.5 SPX.

These rally sequences recently have lasted 3-5 days. Once you pass three days the odds start to go down of just straight continued rally.


If we rally straight into early Thursday it's a bears WET DREAM swing short setup this week.

If I get the proper trade setup... Yay! If not... Who cares... There is always another one.


If the market has a morning rally it's setting up for a short. If we get a morning sell were most likely setting up for a rally into Thursday.

 

[RangeTrader]

The market likes to mostly only turn on even numbers.

The last rally was 60 handles. From my calculations this one is most likely to stop before 60 handles. So I'm thinking 50 or just before 50...

Today just gave floor traders and pro's a chance to collect stops before running the market into another breakout push.

On 7/12 my target area was 1355-65. Once I saw the price action of the first day of rally I raised my target to 1369 on 7/13... If we break that area ill be really surprised and have to raise my target to 1390-1406.5. I DO NOT expect that... We have until Thursday morning then the bulls run out of time...

I have been underestimating moves a lot lately. But, the price level of the moves are not that important. Knowing "when" they are supposed to reach their topping levels is key.

 

[athlonmank8]

Quote from RangeTrader:

The market is closed... Tomorrows trade is short the 15m swing highs unless vol is clocking.

Euro is still open. What are you talking about?

SPX and E/U is highly correlated.

E/U is telling you it favors the long side into tomorrow.