How low can the Dow go?

[Roxiticus]

I asked myself this question over a nice cold bottle of beer. After several cold ones I fired up my computer in an attempt to find the answer. I first asked how low did the dow go in previous recessions. Seems reasonable to me to start here.

1987 CRASH 8/28/1987 to 10/23/1987(Peak to trough)

High 2746
Low 1616
Total point decline = 1130 or -41.15%


1990 Recession 7/20/1990 to 10/12/1990

High 3024
Low 2344
Total point decline = 680 or -22.4%


2000 recession 01/14/2000 to 10/11/02

High 11750
Low 7179
Total point decline 4571 or -38.90%


The Big Flush 10/12/07 to 3/6/09

High 14198
Low 6469
Total point decline = 7729 or -54.43%


Obama Recession 5/6/2011 to November 2012

High 12876
Low ?????

pick your poison


-21.48% = dow 9981
-22.60%= dow 10094
-38.90%=dow 7867
-41.15%= dow 7577
-54.43%= dow 5868

More than -54.43% decline
Less than -21.48% decline
No Decline at all, we rip from here

 

[hitnrun]

the dow low 6600 march 09 to high of 12 800 this year

let's say 50 % retracement sound like a good start

dow 9500 target sounds right

may not get that low again. then again you never know

 

[mister_doodi]

Quote from hitnrun:

the dow low 6600 march 09 to high of 12 800 this year

let's say 50 % retracement sound like a good start

dow 9500 target sounds right

may not get that low again. then again you never know

50% retracement is right around the major support area so you might be right. I don't think we'll go below Dow 10k.

 

[hitnrun]

the flash crash low last year was dow 9900 .
that would be a nice target to hit
with these global issues we may test that area
won't take much to get there

 

[trade4ever2day]

For me the issue is how high it will go when inflations starts building up.