Quote from Cache Landing:
I agree that inflation has probably been higher than 2%. I think somewhere to the tune of 3-5% depending on the year. But to say that it has been 10% annually for 5 years seems to be intuitively incorrect.
Certain items have increased quite a bit, but they aren't the rule.
5 years ago my spicy chicken combo from wendy's cost about $5. Now it costs about $6.25
25% total or 4.5% annual
My shoes used to cost $50; now cost $60
20% total or 3.8% annual
Movie tickets were $5.50; now they're $6.50
18% total or 3.4% annual
My rent used to be $450 now $625
38% or 6.7% annual
Your 10% annual would mean that on average goods have increased 61% over the last 5 years. That is simply absurd when I look at cost increases in the goods that I buy. A couple food products have increased that much, and gas certainly has. But gas only makes up about 5% of my overall purchases. Looking at my personal purchases I would say that 4.0% annual for the last 5 years is a much closer estimate.
Quote from madmax98:
yeah! you don't know how they make your spicy chicken sandwich in 2007! your rent is 450! 7 years ago my rent was 475 for a one br and now it's 900! tuna can was 35 cents and now it's a dollar! a pound of meat was 1-2 dollars and now it's closer to 5 dollars < and that's the fatty crappy meat>!! movie ticket for 6.50!!! where do you live ? tickets went up from 6.50 to 10 bucks here in LA!! just thought i add to your figures.
Quote from madmax98:
yeah! you don't know how they make your spicy chicken sandwich in 2007! your rent is 450! 7 years ago my rent was 475 for a one br and now it's 900! tuna can was 35 cents and now it's a dollar! a pound of meat was 1-2 dollars and now it's closer to 5 dollars < and that's the fatty crappy meat>!! movie ticket for 6.50!!! where do you live ? tickets went up from 6.50 to 10 bucks here in LA!! just thought i add to your figures.
Quote from poyayan:
Here is what I think.
Inflation is here when essential items take over a bigger portion budget of everyday consumers.
Aka, it is here when the retailers suck even more air.
Home Depot earning only falls ~25%, revenue only a couple % and it is in the middle of the housing sector.
Then you have Wal-mark doing pretty good.
I say it is not impacting everyday consumers yet.
Quote from timbo:
Doesn't matter how cash is allocated. The injection question requires two hands.
It depends on the asset. If the investment creates value, then the 1% expenditures on goods will naturally rise. CPI is an aggregate number with its own variance.Quote from Cache Landing:
That is what i think we are seeing right now. A large portion of money created is finding its way to securities. A smaller portion is used for consumption, which makes for lower inflation when measured by CPI. 10% more money chasing the same quantity of goods means 10% inflation. But only 1% more money chasing those goods would reflect only 1% inflation.