How long should you backtest a day trading strategy?

[Overnight]

This is Channel VA by AMN Trader. I'm going to try it and I'll let you know how it works in 3 years.

If you already have a strategy that works, then why are you posting here? What exactly was the point of your OP?

 

[Tradex]

If you don't think its possible to make 1% a day from an automated strategy, then you need to educate yourself

Get real for a second my friend, if you can make 1% a day that means you can multiply your capital by 12 each year, on a compound basis.

In other words you can turn $10K into 30 Billions in 6 years.

And the 7th year you are 10 times richer than Bill Gates, Buffet or Soros. You will then be able to move the freaking S&P 500 - or even the Forex - by 20% or more just by clicking on the Buy or Sell button.

 

[Overnight]

Markets can only do 3 things : go up, down, or sideways, that's it!
And they have been doing this for centuries...

Yer stating it too linearly.

Yes, the markets can do that. Sometimes they do 1, 2 or 3 in a given time frame. Sometimes they do both, and sometimes they do all three. On an averaged basis. Thus, the trend. What gets most people and strategies (I think), is when the market behavior evolves from one generality to another in a shorter time frame than expected.

Maybe "evolve" is the wrong word here. Changes? Yeah, that works better.

 

[xm020-2959]

You're misunderstanding percentages.

If you have $100 and you lose 10% that's $90. To get back to $100 you'd need to gain 11%. Counter-intuitive right? (90-100)/100 = -10% and (100-90)/90 = 11%.

So in your example, if half your trades fail it's entirely possible even if you win the next half of trades you'll still be net negative for the day.

If I make 100 trades a day, and each trade I am risking $30 to make $90 (forget pips for this example), the gross loss of the losing trades is $1500 and the gross profit is $4500. It doesn't matter how many times you flip that coin, you will always make money at the end of the day under those circumstances. Account size is irreverent here as these trades are not relative to account size, but rather a fixed trade size that doesn't change.

 

[fan27]

I was really hesitant to post any of my trade secrets at the beginning of this thread, but now I think the OP is worthy of the knowledge. OP, this is how I am making triple digit returns per year. Good luck!

 

[xm020-2959]

Get real for a second my friend, if you can make 1% a day that means you can multiply your capital by 12 each year, on a compound basis.

In other words you can turn $10K into 30 Billions in 6 years.

And the 7th year you are 10 times richer than Bill Gates, Buffet or Soros. You will then be able to move the freaking S&P 500 - or even the Forex - by 20% or more just by clicking on the Buy or Sell button.

You are taking words out of my mouth. I never said there wasn't a limit. You can make 1% a day and use compound interest to accumulate a million dollars within a couple of years by reinvesting profits back into the account. But there is a limit. Obviously there isn't enough liquidity scalping these small time frames to be making a million dollars a day, which would be required if this growth were to remain constant. I'm surprised you don't understand that concept as a member of an "elite" forum that is browsing on the strategy building section.

 

[xm020-2959]

I was really hesitant to post any of my trade secrets at the beginning of this thread, but now I think the OP is worthy of the knowledge. OP, this is how I am making triple digit returns per year. Good luck!

You sure are a wise ass aren't you? Good luck with trading, shmuck.

 

[xm020-2959]

If you already have a strategy that works, then why are you posting here? What exactly was the point of your OP?

The point, jackass, was that I am building a resource list of strategies that I plan on backtesting to see which ones are profitable in a three year time frame. Not to ask for useless advice and bickering about unrelated topics.

 

[Tradex]

I was really hesitant to post any of my trade secrets at the beginning of this thread, but now I think the OP is worthy of the knowledge. OP, this is how I am making triple digit returns per year. Good luck!

Good old Wizetrade and their Green-Red Arrows system!
I went to their NYC presentations some 10 or 15 years, these guys are truly convincing.
You had to pay 4 grand for what looks like a simple moving average system.
Oh well, there's a sucker born every minute.

 

[xm020-2959]

Yer stating it too linearly.

Yes, the markets can do that. Sometimes they do 1, 2 or 3 in a given time frame. Sometimes they do both, and sometimes they do all three. On an averaged basis. Thus, the trend. What gets most people and strategies (I think), is when the market behavior evolves from one generality to another in a shorter time frame than expected.

Maybe "evolve" is the wrong word here. Changes? Yeah, that works better.

The market doesn't change. It only moves in 2 directions. Strategies generate profit no matter which direction that is. Its that simple. Its a simple machine.