How long does a system last?

[virtusa]

The chart very well illustrates the effect of the covid pandemic on ATR.

It allso illustradtes that in 2018 had higher volatuility, so the market changed.

Actually, many systems should work better under conditions of increased volatility, which seems to be the opposite of your main point.

My main point was that markets changed, not that my system works worse. I posted that my average profit now is 3 times higher. Reread posting #24. But changing markets can destroy certain systems. Some get better, some get worse.

You wrote:"Yet the percentage changes are nothing special until we got into the covid pandemic."
Percentagewise the volatilty rose more than the index the last years. Already before Covid.

 

[tomorton]

It allso illustradtes that in 2018 had higher volatuility, so the market changed.



My main point was that markets changed, not that my system works worse. I posted that my average profit now is 3 times higher. Reread posting #24. But changing markets can destroy certain systems. Some get better, some get worse.

You wrote:"Yet the percentage changes are nothing special until we got into the covid pandemic."
Percentagewise the volatilty rose more than the index the last years. Already before Covid.

Yet so many commentators say this or that system worked until it didn't work and the reason for that is that the market changed. Of course they can't show on a chart how it changed or when. I say they were either lucky enough to have a good run using a poor system and were too dumb to know it, or they are selling something different and want to downgrade the already available approaches.

 

[toby400]

Seems to be a thing on Elite Trader. People open a post then disappear ?

 

[qlai]

Seems to be a thing on Elite Trader. People open a post then disappear ?

Speaking for myself, I can ask a question but have nothing to contribute on the topic, so just reading other people opinions.

 

[toby400]

Speaking for myself, I can ask a question but have nothing to contribute on the topic, so just reading other people opinions.

You are a politicians gift. You ask a question and get a reply. Then cannot think to ask a question, seek clarity or even debate. Not exactly an intellectually hungry person are you.

 

[murray t turtle]

Not sure what point you're making. Markets trend up and they trend down, and they range. volatility goes up and down. That's what they've always done.

%%
Exactly Tmorton;
even a major trend change is expected every 4 years+/ or 10 years...…..[Measured by 200 day ma; and a down sept/down oct would not be considered a major trend change]

I consider even 1 days close below 200dma , A MAJOR trend change/even if it only lasts one day.]
ES is correlated to itself;any high correlation js subject to change=expect any correlation to change.Even the weaker of the three;dow can do better than spy any day, but almost never over the long run.
[I even saw the WSJ find/print a 10 day period when dow chart beat spy + NasadaQ/LOL]

 

[userque]

Equally possible that the system was simply experiencing a random period of good results. You can't show any evidence to prove your point.

No, the possibilities aren't equal.

And no, it's not that I can't show evidence; it's that I'm not interested in exerting the effort to prove my point beyond the "thought experiments" I've already "conducted" in this discussion.

Unlike most debaters here, I don't need the confirmation of "elitetraders."

Where my posts can help others, so be it; where they can't, so be it.

 

[tomorton]

No, the possibilities aren't equal.

And no, it's not that I can't show evidence; it's that I'm not interested in exerting the effort to prove my point beyond the "thought experiments" I've already "conducted" in this discussion.

Unlike most debaters here, I don't need the confirmation of "elitetraders."

Where my posts can help others, so be it; where they can't, so be it.

Ok, so you've got the evidence. That said, you've registered with a discussion forum and entered into a debate on this subject but now you won't put up the evidence that informs your opinion. Its slightly difficult to resolve your position.

 

[userque]

Ok, so you've got the evidence. That said, you've registered with a discussion forum and entered into a debate on this subject but now you won't put up the evidence that informs your opinion. Its slightly difficult to resolve your position.

I've presented evidence.
You rejected it.
I'm good.

Evidence:
Anyone can present (for free, on their own time) all manner of evidence, strong and weak, in a discussion forum.
They can even conduct addition research; beyond that which they themselves need to reach a conclusion, in the hopes of satisfying the evidentiary demands of a stranger.

Everyone won't "get it," regardless the evidence or effort.

Internet Discussion Forums:
We can all debate to our heart's content.
None of us are required to debate (for free, on our own time), ad nauseum, or even to the other parties' content.
How much each of us debates, or doesn't debate, (for free) is a personal choice.

Conclusion:
I presented (for free) my opinion, supported by evidence--whether you consider it weak or strong, is irrelevant.
I'm ok whether you agree, or disagree.
You should be too.

 

[tomorton]

I've presented evidence.
You rejected it.
I'm good.

Evidence:
Anyone can present (for free, on their own time) all manner of evidence, strong and weak, in a discussion forum.
They can even conduct addition research; beyond that which they themselves need to reach a conclusion, in the hopes of satisfying the evidentiary demands of a stranger.

Everyone won't "get it," regardless the evidence or effort.

Internet Discussion Forums:
We can all debate to our heart's content.
None of us are required to debate (for free, on our own time), ad nauseum, or even to the other parties' content.
How much each of us debates, or doesn't debate, (for free) is a personal choice.

Conclusion:
I presented (for free) my opinion, supported by evidence--whether you consider it weak or strong, is irrelevant.
I'm ok whether you agree, or disagree.
You should be too.

I was forced to reject your evidence as it didn't prove your point. It simply showed that prices oscillate and so does price volatility. There hasn't been a period in trading history when these things were not true.

In any case you sidestepped - the case for the systems-stop-working supporters is that some trading systems stop working in such a way that nobody could see it coming. Else they would obviously have adapted the system to allow for that eventuality. A more than that they couldn't even see it happening when it was happening, else they would have dealt with it then too.

My argument remains that good systems do not suddenly fail, no matter what their apologists say. But all bad systems eventually do.